2016 Cowboys Draft: Possible Draft Scenario #2 ⋆
Connect with us

2016 Cowboys Draft: Possible Draft Scenario #2

Cowboys Blog - Cowboys Free Agency: Plugging the Holes Before the Draft 4

NFL Draft

2016 Cowboys Draft: Possible Draft Scenario #2

This is the second of a series of possible scenarios that could play out on draft day (find the first draft scenario here). The Cowboys are known to be horse traders on draft day; they certainly are not afraid to take some chances. With this in mind, we are looking at possible trade scenarios that could occur.

Granted some of the scenarios would be difficult to make happen. First, you have to find trade partners willing to deal with you. Second, you have to get and give enough value to make it worth the trade.

So as we look at the scenarios, we first need to make a few assumptions. These are:

  1. For each scenario we need to find a partner that has a need that they may want to go up for. We will analyze the win for each team in those trades.
  2. I will use the widely distributed Draft Value Chart to determine what trades have somewhat equal value. When there is a point difference, the team moving up will typically be the one overpaying.

We will then look at 6 possible draft combinations of players the Cowboys could go after in that scenario. We will use our 175-player big board, as well as big boards from some of the leading draft experts.

Today’s scenario will be:

The Cowboys trade back to 15 and pick up the Rams two seconds. They also swap thirds to make it more appealing to the Rams.

  1. The Cowboys would then give up the 68 and pick up the 77.
  2. Then they trade from 15 to the early to mid-twenties to pick up another second.
  3. In a third trade, they take their third and one of the seconds and they trade back up into the late first round.
  4. They take one of their seconds and trade down to pick up a third.

This would involve four trades, and they would end up with two firsts, three seconds, one third, and two fourths.

So let’s break down the first trade.

The Rams are in need of a franchise QB. It looks like there is a good possibility that one or both of the top quarterbacks will be available at 4. One caveat to this is if the Browns pick a QB at 2, and then the Chargers trade down to someone who comes up and gets a QB too. In this case the Cowboys would probably stay put and take Ramsey or Tunsil.

Assuming, this scenario does not play out, then the Rams can trade with the Cowboys and get their QB of the future. The Cowboys pick up two second round picks. One thing I will say about this draft is that it is deep with a lot of quality second rounders, so the Cowboys could add some good starting caliber players with second round picks.

Looking at the second trade, the Cowboys could move up to the 24th with the Bengals. The Bengals lost several corners in free agency, so they might be interested in moving up to get a corner. They also lost two receivers, so they may want to come up for a receiver too. Either way, to make the trade work they would need to give up some value (getting 1,050, but giving up 1,090). This would be a fairly good deal for both sides.

For the third trade, the Cowboys may want to come back in the first to pick up a player. Two options that could be possible; they take the 35th, the 77th (swamp with Rams), and their 6th to come up and get the 22nd. Say a player fell in the draft and they wanted him but they knew they could not wait until the 24th (after their trade) so they need to come back into the first and get him (Dez like). Or maybe the scenario is that a QB falls down the board and they think that the Cardinals are going to take him with the 29th; then they need their 46th, 77th, and their 6th rounder to come up for the 28th pick. Either scenario is plausible, but for this article I am going to go with the second option. The Cowboys trade up for the 28th pick overall.

For the fourth and final trade, the Cowboys will look to get back a third. They take their 44th and trade back down for the Steelers 58th and the 89th. They would give up 460 points, but they pick up 320 +145 = 465. There are some great one techniques and DEs that would fit a thirty-four defense. That may be enticing to the Steelers or perhaps they want to get a receiver. The Cowboys would have three of the top 35 picks in this scenario, so they can afford to move back and collect another draft pick.

So the Cowboys would wind up with the 24th, 28th, 35th, 58th, 89th, 101st, 135th, 212th, 216th, and 217th in this scenario.

Here are many possible draft combinations under this scenario. The draft is set up with the first pick. Let’s look at some possible combinations:

Pick Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Dream 1 Dream 2
24th Coleman
(WR)
Kelly
(C)
Kelly
(C)
Nkemdiche
(DT)
Spence
(DE)
Floyd
(SAM/DE)
28th Cook
(QB)
Cook
(QB)
Jackson
(CB)
Jackson
(CB)
Lynch
(QB)
Nkemdiche
(DT)
35th Dodd
(DE)
Ogbah
(DE)
Bullard
(DE/DT)
Doctson
or Fuller
(WR)
Nkemdiche
(DT)
Doctson
or
Fuller
(WR)
58th Jones
(DT3)
Fuller
(CB)
Boyd
(WR)
Dixon
or Booker
(RB)
Burns
(CB)
Burns
(CB)
89th Canady
(CB)
Hargrave
(DT)
Tapper
(DE)
Hackenburg
(QB)
Martin
(C)
Martin
(C)
101st Prosise
(RB)
Prosise
(RB)
Prosise
(RB)
Blair
(DE)
Lawler
(WR)
Prosise
(RB)
135th Tuerk
(C/OG)
Listenbee
(WR)
Blair
(DE)
Tuerk
(C/OG)
Blair
(DE)
Blair
(DE)
212 Neal
(FS)
Powell
(FS)
Allen
(QB)
Powell
(FS)
Jackson
(RB)
Allen
(QB)
216 Vitale
(FB)
Vitale
(FB)
Vitale
(FB)
Vitale
(FB)
Vitale
(FB)
Vitale
(FB)
217 Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)

 

We ultimately wind up with the same number of picks as in the first scenario, but in this scenario we wind up having two number one picks. Those picks set the tone for the rest of the draft. There are some new players on these mocks, but some of the same as well.

In the first mock, our first pick is one of the fastest receivers in the draft. He can play inside or on the outside. Coleman stretches the field, but he can also be effective in the screen game. Teams will have to decide to play off coverage, which opens the screen game, or tight coverage which opens the over the top plays. He reminds me a lot of a Steve Smith.

With the second pick, the Cowboys would come up and get Connor Cook. I am not crazy about him personally, but he is the fourth rated QB prospect in the draft. He would give the Cowboys a backup QB to groom.

After the first two picks, they start addressing the defense.

Dodd is a traditional left end in a 43 defense. He would be an immediate contributor. Chris Jones may not be there. Some people have him going in the first, others have him in the third. In this mock, if he is there at 58, the Cowboys should go get him. He would give them another disruptive three tech that gets off the ball as fast as anyone in this draft. Maurice Canady is a solid corner that will contribute and should become a starter in a couple of years.

After adding the defensive players, they come back and address their two biggest offense needs remaining by drafting a RB and center/guard combo. Prosise would give the Cowboys a receiver out of the backfield. He could fill in Dunbar’s role until Dunbar gets healthy. He also runs very similarly to McFadden. He can stretch the edge and he is a one cut running back. So he actually adds depth in a couple of ways. Tuerk is falling on some boards, which worries me about health concerns. If he is healthy, he is a top 100 pick. In two years, he is most likely your starting center.

We then address some developmental positions at the end of the sixth round. We get a DT1 to groom, a safety that has a lot of potential, and a full back that can catch and block.

Overall, I think it would be a good day if the Cowboys could pull this draft together.

In the second mock, we go get our center of the future. He provides depth this year and will then be a starter. As in the first mock, then the Cowboys go up and get Cook. In the second round they get a speed rusher in Ogbah and a cover corner in Fuller. In the third they land a rising DT in Hargrave. They again get Prosise in the fourth. At the end of the fourth, they land a speedster in Listenbee. At the end of the sixth, they get a safety (Powell) who is tall and fast. I doubt he is still available, though a lot of mocks have him falling and have him in the 200s now. They then finish the mock draft with a FB and DT1.

The third mock is perhaps my favorite.

You get your center of the future in the first. Then you come up and get a physical, athletic corner at the end of the first. Bullard is a disruptive three technique that can also play some left DE on run downs. Boyd would be a great get at 58 (if not Boyd, Sterling Shepard). Tapper is an athletic DE who can be an immediate contributor at DE (would assume the Cowboys also get a vet on a one or two year deal). Prosise would add depth immediately on offense as an early fourth rounder. Blair is my biggest question mark. Would he still be there? I was surprised with what most boards had him ranked. I had him high third, low fourth, but some boards have him somewhere between 150 and 200. In the sixth the Cowboys get Allen as a backup developmental QB and they stick with getting a one tech and FB.

The fourth mock is also a very good one. The Cowboys land a top 10 talent in Nkemdiche, they also come back up and get a top corner. In the second and third they address offense with a receiver, running back and QB. They come up and get a DE in Blair at 101. This is more likely where Blair will go. Tuerk would be a good get at the end of the fourth and will add the depth the Cowboys would need at center/guard. Then the Cowboys try to add depth with Powell. The final two picks stay the same, at DT and FB.

Then there are the two dream scenarios where players fall and the Cowboys get value. In the first dream scenario, Spence falls to them at 24. Paxton Lynch also falls and the Cowboys pick him up before the Cardinals or Denver can. Nkemdiche also falls due to character and his engine. The Cowboys get a top 10 talent in the second round. Artie Burns is a top 5 corner who is athletic and long. Not sure Martin makes it out of the second, but he falls in our dream scenario and the Cowboys get him at the middle to end of the third. We then get Lawler, a polished third down type receiver. Blair falls to us at the end of the fourth. In the sixth, I have us getting a running back that could be the steal of the draft. Look up tape on Darius Jackson out of E. Michigan. He has speed, power and some decent vision.

The last scenario is one that is viable but optimistic. Floyd would give the Cowboys an edge rush, and he could play the Sam on early downs. It is possible Nkemdiche falls to the end of the first. Fuller could very easily be there with the 35. Artie burns is a mid to late second rounder so that could play into this mock. Nick Martin slipping to late third is a bit of a stretch, but it is certainly possible. Prosise should go around 100, so that is certainly feasible. Blair at 135 is a bit of a stretch, I can’t really see him falling that far, but I have seen stranger things. Overall, this is a type of draft that could happen if things fall right for the Cowboys.

That is all I have for the scenario. I hope you enjoyed thinking about it. Let us know what your favorite is. Or better yet, give us your dream mock up in this scenario. Until next time, have a great time discussing the options.

Tommy Simon

Tommy Simon is an entrepreneur, writer, speaker and sports enthusiast. He is currently CEO of TechBAA, an investor and board member of TPC Technical and CommunitesFIrst, and acting CFO for ALS Communities. In addition to investing and advising companies, Tommy is also a Sales Management coach and is working with companies as a Fractional CMO/CSO. Tommy is a life long football player, coach and Cowboy fan. He currently coaches and sponsors several 7 on 7 teams. He manages/coaches an adult flag football team that is the top team in Florida one of the highest ranked teams in the country. Tommy's hobbies include international travel, fantasy football, reading, and engaging in intelligent political discourse. He is married to a wonderful women for 18 years; which is the best thing he has ever accomplished. He has a dog that is the best dog ever. He also has 9 siblings and roughly 30 nieces and nephews. For more information about tommy, or to request him to speak, please contact him at info@techbaa.com

2 Comments
  • Eric Blake

    I like those scenarios. But the two where you have us taking a center of the future in the first round , I don’t agree with. No need to when we can get that later. Best player available and needs are what we should concentrate on. As a matter of fact in those two scenarios I would take Derrick Henry in those spots and then pick up some positions of need or best player available in the spots where you have the running back in options 2 and 3. We need to get back to power , smash mouth football and I see no better way to do that other than drafting a battering ram with speed, power, and finesse. That’s if we don’t take Elliot in the top of round 1. Same can be said for the QB position. Prescott in the third or Driscoll a little later.

  • Eric Blake

    I like those scenarios. But the two where you have us taking a center of the future in the first round , I don’t agree with. No need to when we can get that later. Best player available and needs are what we should concentrate on. As a matter of fact in those two scenarios I would take Derrick Henry in those spots and then pick up some positions of need or best player available in the spots where you have the running back in options 2 and 3. We need to get back to power , smash mouth football and I see no better way to do that other than drafting a battering ram with speed, power, and finesse. That’s if we don’t take Elliot in the top of round 1. Same can be said for the QB position. Prescott in the third or Driscoll a little later.

Reader Survey

Want to help make Inside The Star better?

We’re collecting feedback from our readers about the site. It only takes <2 minutes to complete, and can be done from any device.

> Take the survey now

Don’t worry, your information will not be shared with anyone but me (Bryson T.).

Popular Now

Advertisement

From Our Partners

Advertisement
Enjoy 40% commissions on officially licensed products as a FanPrint affiliate. You can even make your own, fully licensed Cowboys and player designs! Get started here
To Top