2016 Cowboys Draft: Possible Trade Scenario #3 ✭
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2016 Cowboys Draft: Possible Trade Scenario #3

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NFL Draft

2016 Cowboys Draft: Possible Trade Scenario #3

This will be the third in a series of possible scenarios that could play out on draft day. We expect the Cowboys to be active on draft day and we are looking at possible trade combinations that might make sense.

Determining possible trade scenarios is difficult because, you have to find trade partners willing to deal with you. Second, you have to get or give enough value to make it worth the trade.

Looking at the scenarios, we need to make a few assumptions:

  1. For each scenario we need to find a partner that has a need that they may want to go up for. We will analyze the win for each team in those trades.
  2. I will use the widely distributed Draft Value Chart to determine what trades have somewhat equal value. When there is a point difference, the team moving up will typically be the one overpaying to make the trade happen.
  3. We assume the Cowboys strategy will be to move down to pick up additional picks. The Cowboys have depth issues and need at least eight draft picks (if not ten)

Before we get into the third scenario, let’s look at some of the mock drafts that resulted from our first two trade scenarios.

In first scenario the Cowboys moved out of the fourth pick to the 15th pick. For doing this they received the Rams two first round picks (they also swapped thirds to make it a more even trade). In the second scenario they traded with the Rams but then they moved again to the 24th overall pick.

Here are the subsequent mock drafts that resulted from those scenarios.

Scenario One

Pick Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Dream 1 Dream 2
15 Wentz
or Goff
(QB)
Shaq Lawson
(DE)
Treadwell
(WR)
Rankins
(DT3)
Zeke Elliott
(RB)
Ryan Kelly
(C/G)
35 Ogbah
or Dodd
(DE)
Doctson
or Fuller
(WR)
Ogbah
or Dodd
(DE)
Doctson
or Fuller
(WR)
Noah Spence
(DE)
Ogbah
or Dodd
(DE)
44 Jonathan Bullard
(DT3)
Chris Jones
(DT3)
Johnathan Bullard
(DT3)
Derrick Henry
(RB)
Doctson
or Fuller
(WR)
Jonathan Bullard
(DT3)
46 Artie Burns
(CB)
Austin Johnson
(DT1)
Artie Burns
(CB)
Artie Burns
(CB)
Artie Burns
(CB)
Artie Burns
(CB)
77 Dion Jones
(LB)
Westerman
(G/C)
Jordan Howard
(RB)
Dion Jones
(LB)
Chris Jones
(DT)
Kenneth Dixon
(RB)
101 CJ Proisse
(RB)
Cyrus Jones
(CB)
Cardale Jones
(QB)
Ronald Blair
(DE)
Jack Allen
(C/G)
Kenny Lawler
(WR)
135 Max Tuerk
(C/G)
Daniel Lasco
(RB)
Max Tuerk
(C/G)
Max Tuerk
(C/G)
Ronald Blair
(DE)
Cardale Jones
(QB)
212 Dan Vitale
(FB)
Brandon Allen
(QB)
Lawrence-Stampe
(DT1)
Brandon Allen
(QB)
Brandon Allen
(QB)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
216 Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
217 David Morgan II
(TE)
Austin Blythe
(C/G)
David Morgan II
(TE)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
David Morgan II
(TE)

 

Scenario Two

Pick Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Dream 1 Dream 2
24th C. Coleman
(WR)
Ryan Kelly
(C)
Ryan Kelly
(C)
R. Nkemdiche
(DT)
Noah Spence
(DE)
Leonard Floyd
(SAM/DE)
28th Connor Cook
(QB)
Connor Cook
(QB)
Will Jackson
(CB)
Will Jackson
(CB)
Paxton Lynch
(QB)
R. Nkemdiche
(DT)
35th Dodd
(DE)
Ogbah
(DE)
Bullard
(DE/DT)
Doctson
or Fuller
(WR)
R. Nkemdiche
(DT)
Doctson
or Fuller
(WR)
58th Chris Jones
(DT3)
Fuller
(CB)
Tyler Boyd
(WR)
Dixon
or Booker
(RB)
Artie Burns
(CB)
Artie Burn
(CB)
89th Maurice Canady
(CB)
J. Hargrave
(DT)
Tapper
(DE)
Hackenburg
(QB)
Nick Martin
(C)
Nick Martin
(C)
101st C.J. Prosise
(RB)
C.J. Prosise
(RB)
Blair
(DE)
Blair
(DE)
K. Lawler
(WR)
C.J. Prosise
(RB)
135th Max Tuerk
(C,OG)
K. Listenbee
(WR)
Cardale Jones
(QB)
Max Tuerk
(C,OG)
Blair
(DE)
Blair
(DE)
212 Keanu Neal
(FS)
Tyvis Powell
(FS)
Keith Marshall
(RB)
Tyvis Powell
(FS)
Darius Jackson
(RB)
Brandon Allen
(QB)
216 Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
217 Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)

 

Scenario three will be:

  • The Cowboys trade down to number 15 in the first. They pick up the Rams two second round picks (44 and 46). They give up their sixth the trade. The Cowboys would then trade down the 44th to around the 57th pick. They would acquire the 88th in the deal. Finally they would trade their fourths to get back down into the end of the third. This involves three trades and they will wind up with one first, three seconds, and three thirds.

So let’s break down the first trade. The Rams are in need of a franchise QB. It looks like there is a good possibility that one or both of the top quarterbacks will be available at 4. It could play out that the top two QBs are gone by the fourth, but it is not likely. So in this scenario the Rams will come up and get their guy. In this trade, different from the first two, we assume the Cowboys throw in their 6th rounder to offset the difference in trade value.

Looking at the second trade, the Cowboys could trade the 44th to 57th and pick up the 88th. Green Bay is in need of corners, possible another receiver, and they also need to strength the interior of their defense. In this scenario we assume there is a player that they think has fallen and they want to come up and get him.

For the third trade, let’s say the Cowboys want to move up eight spots to the 93 pick. They would give up the 101st (94 points) and the 135 (38.5 points) for the 93 (128 points).

So the Cowboys would wind up with the 15h, 34th, 46th, 57th, 67th, 88th, 93rd, 212th, 216th, and 217th in this scenario. It is a great scenario if they could pull it off because they would have seven picks in the top 93 picks.

Here are many possible draft combinations under this scenario. Let’s look at some possible combinations:

Pick Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Dream 1 Dream 2
15th Noah Spence
(DE)
Treadwell
(WR)
Paxton Lynch
(QB)
Rankins
(DT3)
Zeke Elliott
(RB)
Shaq Lawson
(DE)
34th Bullard
(DT/DE)
Dodd
or Ogbah
(DE)
Dodd
or Ogbah
(DE)
Fuller
(WR)
Will Jackson
(CB)
R. Nkemdiche
(DT3)
46th Artie Burn
(CB)
Derrick Henry
(RB)
Artie Burn
(CB)
Artie Burn
(CB)
Bullard
(DT/DE)
Fuller
(WR)
57th Dixon
or Booker
(RB)
Chris Jones
(DT3)
Chris Jones
(DT3)
Dixon
or Booker
(RB)
Boyd
(WR)
Artie Burns
(CB)
67th Shepard
(WR)
Nick Martin
(C/G)
Shepard
(WR)
Nick Martin
(C/G)
Carl Nassib
(DE)
Dixon
or Booker
(RB)
88th Hackenburg
(QB)
Maurice Canady
(CB)
Prosise
(RB)
Blair
(DE)
Blair
(DE)
Hackenburg
(QB)
93rd Jack Allen
(C/G)
D. Thompson
(FS)
Jack Allen
(C/G)
Tapper
(DE)
Jack Allen
(C/G)
Jack Allen
(C/G)
212 Tyvis Powell
(FS)
Brandon Allen
(QB)
Keanu Neal
(FS)
Brandon Allen
(QB)
Brandon Allen
(QB)
Tyvis Powell
(FS)
216 Dan Vitale
(FB)
Darius Jackson
(RB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Keith Marshall
(RB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
217 Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Keith Marshall
(RB)
Darius Jackson
(RB)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)
Lawrence-Stample
(DT1)

 

There are some new players on these mocks, as well as some of the familiars. We ultimately wind up with the same number of picks as in the first two scenarios, but each is a little earlier. So in many cases, we wind up with the same players, but we get them earlier. So this becomes a more realistic scenario. I have to say, that if the Cowboys could pull off this scenario, they become a much better football team and a lot deeper.

Our first mock in this scenario we grab a pass rushing DE. Spence should be what we hoped we had with Gregory. With our second pick we continue to get better on defense by adding a disruptive three in Bullard. Bullard can also play some DE on the early down so he brings versatility which the Cowboys like. With the third pick the Cowboys get their athletic corner. Burns should be there with the 46, so that make this a realistic pick. He would become a starter in Dallas by year two, if not now. The same goes for Dixon (or Booker) and Shepard. Both should be starters by next year, if not by the end of this year. The Cowboys move up to the end of the third to get a QB. I think Hackenburg will be there, but it could be any QB the Cowboys like. They also get a future starting center in Allen. In the sixth they get a tall, fast safety, a developmental one tech, and a fullback. This would be a great draft for them but it only works if they are willing to trade back their fourth.

In the second mock, they get the best receiver, followed by a starting left DE (Dodd), a starting RB (Henry), a quick, disruptive 3 technique (Jones) who can play some DE, an eventual starting center (Martin), a corner back with eventual starting potential (Canady), and a very good free safety (Thompson). They then get a developmental QB, back, and one tech in the sixth.

In the third mock, the Cowboys get the future QB to develop, then they come back and strengthen the defense with a starting DE (Dodd), starting corner (Burns), and disruptive three tech (Jones). They then come back and strengthen the offense by adding a polished starting third receiver (Shepard), running back (Prosise), and future starting center (Allen). When they come back in the sixth they get a developmental running back, fullback and safety. I think the Cowboys would be very happy with this mock as well.

The fourth mock may be my favorite. In this mock they get the top three tech (who can also play one) in the first, they get a speedy receiver in the second (Fuller), they then get a starting caliber corner (Burns), followed by a starting caliber running back (Dixon). The Cowboys then get their center of the future and follow that up by getting two DEs that have high upsides. They finish the draft with a developmental QB, fullback and developmental running back. Overall they have at least five starting players and a couple of DEs that could eventually be starters. Pretty good draft if they could pull it off.

In our dream draft, Elliott falls to the Cowboys at 15. Then they get Will Jackson, who I believe is the second best corner in the draft. They follow this up by getting Bullard, a disruptive three tech, with the 46th. Boyd is a starting quality WR, who can play inside and out. Nassib is an under rated DE who could have a 10-12 year career in the league. He would be a contributor as a left DE. The Cowboys then hedge their bets and get a second DE (Blair) who has a lot of upside. The Cowboys get their future starting center (Allen) with the 93 then they draft a developmental QB, RB and one tech in the sixth. The Cowboys would get four to five starters future starters and some key contributors. Overall, I think this would be their dream scenario.

In our second dream draft, one of the best players in the draft falls to the Cowboys. Lawson is the best DE in the draft. They follow that up by having a three tech with top 10 talent fall to them in the second. They then get a speed receiver who should start next year and contribute this year. Since this is a dream draft, or wish draft, Burns falls to the late second and the Cowboys get a starting caliber corner. Then they get a top running back. The Cowboys get Hackenburg as a developmental QB and finish their third round pick by getting Allen, who will be a starting caliber center. In the sixth, they get a tall rangy safety, fullback and developmental running back. Overall they would be thrilled. They would get six starting caliber players and a QB with a high upside (and a low downside).

Well, no matter which mock you like, I think we can all say that if the Cowboys decide to move back a couple of times in this draft, they can add starters and depth at multiple positions. I would love to hear what your mock would be in this scenario. Who would you get and when?

The purpose of these scenarios is to show what type of draft they can have, no matter how the draft unfolds. If the first pick is a QB, DE, RB, DT, (determined by who is left to them), can they still come back and get what they need? I think they can.

The real question is which trade scenario (1, 2, or 3) do you prefer. Which do you think will lead to the most successful draft; no matter how the draft board goes? Which do you think will lead to the best outcome?

Thanks for reading. Hope you enjoyed it.

Tommy Simon

Tommy Simon is an entrepreneur, writer, speaker and sports enthusiast. He is currently CEO of TechBAA, an investor and board member of TPC Technical and CommunitesFIrst, and acting CFO for ALS Communities. In addition to investing and advising companies, Tommy is also a Sales Management coach and is working with companies as a Fractional CMO/CSO.

Tommy is a life long football player, coach and Cowboy fan. He currently coaches and sponsors several 7 on 7 teams. He manages/coaches an adult flag football team that is the top team in Florida one of the highest ranked teams in the country.

Tommy’s hobbies include international travel, fantasy football, reading, and engaging in intelligent political discourse. He is married to a wonderful women for 18 years; which is the best thing he has ever accomplished. He has a dog that is the best dog ever. He also has 9 siblings and roughly 30 nieces and nephews.

For more information about tommy, or to request him to speak, please contact him at info@techbaa.com

9 Comments
  • CrippledShark

    I can’t stop laughing…..
    #1 why do they need a center for the future? Last time I looked they had a Pro Bowl center that has started 48 consecutive games and he is only 25 years old. Not that you can’t always use depth (see Collins draft last season) on the line but at this point, a center is way way down the list especially with the free agent signing of Joe Lunney and last years 3rd round draftee Chaz Green coming back from injury.
    #2. RB is way down the list as well. Why pay #4 pick or even #15 pick type of money on a RB. Plenty of RB’s available way way later. Same goes for developmental QB….
    #3. Defense, Defense, Defense….and then some drafting for depth on the Offense. It’s the only way to dominate the weak NFC east.

    • http://www.techbaa.com Tommy Simon

      Thanks for responding, I appreciate the feedback. They will need a center because they will not be able to afford resigning both guards and the center in the next two years. Most likely it will be the center that they will let go. Not to mention the fact, that this might be the best center coming out in the last 10 years. So while they have a good center now, they could actually wind up with a great one at a lower salary. It is about getting better at each position.

      I did write this before the signing of Looney. He will definitely help. But he is a short term stop gap. Guard is still an issue in the long run because the Boys still could lose Leary to another team this year, and they will for sure next year. I am not sure I trust Looney to be the backup guard and center I would count on if someone goes down. You have to take a long term view.

      RB is a need. Don’t assume you can get someone as good in the third round as you can get in the first round. Look at Girly as an example. The idea is to get the best player you can at every position. Good doesn’t win championships, great does. There is only one or two running backs in this draft with a chance to be great. So if you drop down and can get the best back, it might be well worth it.

      As for Chaz Green, I hope he is great. But from what little I saw of him last year in practice, he has a long way to go before you would ever consider him to be NFL caliber. He has to prove himself.

      I do agree with defense first, but they could still use a running back, receiver, and backup O-linemen in the draft. They need to take the best player on the board when their turn comes up. Whether that is a corner, DE, running back, etc.

      The point I was trying to make was that no matter who is still available with the first pick, by trading down they will have many options and combinations, and they will pick up some solid players in the first few rounds.

    • Bryson Treece

      I thought the same thing about Center, but it quickly dawned on me just how much money is going to be tied up on that line when the 2nd contracts roll around for Frederick, Martin, and Collins. Center is the most expendable spot of those 3 so you keep drafting young there and letting players move on for more money. Otherwise, you cripple the team’s cap with one unit.

      • CrippledShark

        I hear you Bryson and the Boyz already gave huge money to Tyron Smith but they can keep Frederick (next up) and Martin (following year) while Collins is just into his 2nd year. In Jerry’s world, it is a win now mentality as they rebuilt a few years back. With a weak NFC East, Jerry is not about 2-4 yr expiring contracts, he is about plugging holes and drafting to give Tony a final shot (possibly 2) at a SB trophy. That’s why I said that Dallas won’t draft a RB/QB at #4 because of the money and developmental aspects a rookie RB/QB will bring. Yes Tony needs a backup in the worse way but let’s assume he gets hurt again, then Dallas will use a grind it out approach at QB with a power running game and put their defense in control of winning the game. I’m telling you as sure as I’m 56, the Boys might trade down to gain more picks but they will go defense, defense, defense….. (DE, DT, CB, SS, LB, QB, WR but not in this order).Hey I dig your article keep it up….@Crippledshark

        To: shark85@hotmail.com

        • Bryson Treece

          And while I’ll be happy with QB at #4, I think they’re target is Jalen Ramsey and if they can get him, that would be perfect. He’d be the right addition to the weakest part of this defense, the secondary. Thanks for reading. Tommy really gets in-depth on these mock scenarios.

          • CrippledShark

            I would love to have Jalen Ramsey. BTW, I think the Cowbiys have one of the best centers in the NFL and Martin can play that position too along with Looney and Chaz Green. If there is a need on the OL it would be RT but again we have players on the roster that can man that spot. Not to be a broken record but it will be defense that Dallas goes heavy with this year. Myles Jack would be an awesome pick and give Dallas a LB core second to none. 3 beasts at LB with 2 more rotational LB but I think Bryson is right, if Jalen is there at #4 – he is the pick! Shut down corners are worth 10++ mil per year. If the secondary can cover then the d-line can pressure while the LB’s cover, tackle or blitz!!!Great discussion guys….

            To: shark85@hotmail.com

          • http://www.techbaa.com Tommy Simon

            If the Boys stay at 4 it should be to get Ramsey or Jack. Otherwise, they should trade down. There are too many other good guys at DE, CB and DT that they can get later in the first or in the second. There are some good DT/DE options in the third too.

            I like our center, but you have to plan on letting him leave after this year or the following. So start your succession planning now.

  • Rodney

    I think Keith Marshall would be a perfect fit. Ga kept him protected after his knee injury. People forget it was him and Gurley as the 1-2 punch before he got injured. He’s a fast back and with the signing of Morris he can play limited time this yr and be the #2 back next after we let McFadden go. Cordell Jones would be a great pick up also. He got a strong arm, he’s big and strong…just need a lil tweaking and boom we got an awesome QB. Let him be 3rd string behing K. Moore for 2yrs and then when Romo retires in 2yrs…he’ll be ready.

    • http://www.techbaa.com Tommy Simon

      Good thoughts

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