2016 Cowboys Draft: Potential Trade Scenario 5 ✭
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2016 Cowboys Draft: Potential Trade Scenario 5

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NFL Draft

2016 Cowboys Draft: Potential Trade Scenario 5

The Cowboys have historically been active on the draft day. This year they are likely to be even more so. In this series we will take a look at different scenarios that could play out on draft day. This is the fifth of a ten part series that looks at possible draft combinations that make plausible sense.

Determining possible trade scenarios is difficult because, you have to find trade partners willing to deal with you. Second, you have to get or give enough value to make it worth the trade. So as we look at the scenarios, we first need to make a few assumptions. These are:

  1. For each scenario we need to find a partner that has a need that they may want to go up for. We will analyze the win for each team in those trades.
  2. The article uses the widely distributed Draft Value Chart to determine trades that somewhat have equal value. When there is a point difference, the team moving up will typically be the one overpaying to make the trade happen.
  3. We assume the Cowboys strategy will be to move down to pick up additional picks.

Trade Scenario #5 Will Be:

  • Cowboys dropping down to the 7th pick to get San Francisco’s 68th and 105th picks.
  • Trade the sixth rounder for a 4th or 5th rounder next year.

So let’s break down the first trade. Let’s assume that the 49ers like Goff and he is there after the third pick so they may want to come up and get him. They might think Jacksonville or Baltimore will not draft a QB, but they may also try to trade down with a team that wants to come up and get Goff (Philly perhaps). With these options, the 49ers make the decision to come up and get their QB.

For the Cowboys, they may want to fall down to seven to still be able to get up a top pick, while reducing the salary they need. Perhaps they like Zeke Elliott, or Shaq Lawson, or a QB. The 4 position may be too early to get who they want, but at seven it makes perfect sense.

For sake of simplicity, we are going to assume the Cowboys trade their 5th rounder for a 5th rounder in next year’s draft. After all, how many sixth rounder’s can you have in one year?

In this scenario the Cowboys would wind up with the 7th, 34th, 67th, 68th, 101st, 105th, 135th, 212th, 216th, and 217th in this scenario.

Here are many possible draft combinations under this scenario. Let’s look at some possible combinations:

Pick Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Dream 1 Dream 2
7 Goff/
Wentz
(QB)
Zeke Elliott
(RB)
Shaq Lawson
(DE)
Hargreaves
(CB)
Myles Jack
(LB)
Ramsey
(DB)
34 Dodd/
Ogbah
(DE)
Will Fuller
(WR)
Clark/
Butler
(DT)
Derrick Henry
(RB)
Will Jackson
(CB)
Noah Spence
(DE)
67 Chris Jones
(DT)
Xavier Howard
(CB)
Dixon
(RB)
Carl Nassib
(DE)
Booker
(RB)
Chris Jones
(DT)
68 Xavier Howard
(CB)
Dion Jones
(LB)
Boyd
(WR)
Braxton Miller
(WR)
S. Shepard
(WR)
Nick Martin
(C/G)
101 K. Listenbee
(WR)
Blair
(DE)
Jalen Mills
(DB)
Jordan Jenkins
(ILB)
Charles Tapper
(DE)
Christian Hackenberg
(QB)
 105 Kenyan Drake
(RB)
Bronson Kaufusi
(DE)
Cyrus Jones
(CB)
Maliek Collins
(DT1)
Sheldon Day
(DT3)
Prosise
(RB)
135 Joe Schobert
(ILB)
D. Thompson
(FS)
Cardale Jones
(QB)
KJ Dillon
(S)
Max Tuerk
(C/G)
Rashard Robinson
(CB)
212 Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
Dan Vitale
(FB)
216 Austin Blythe
(C/G)
Austin Blythe
(C/G)
Austin Blythe
(C/G)
Austin Blythe
(C/G)
Tyvis Powell
(FS)
Tyvis Powell
(FS)
217 Tyvis Powell
(S)
B. Allen
(QB)
Tyvis Powell
(S)
Kevin Hogan
(QB)
Brandon Doughty
(QB)
K. Marshall
(RB)

 

First let me say this is my least favorite mockup yet. Don’t get me wrong, I still am a proponent of moving down, if it is down to seven. However, the value gained in the previous scenarios by getting second round picks does not happen by only moving to the seventh pick. If you look at it, you really do not get that much better of a player at 7 as you do moving down to 11-15. So there is more value gained in moving 50 -10 spots, than is saved by only moving down three or four.

The one advantage of this scenario is that there is a good possibility that one of the two top quarterbacks or either Jack or Ramsey will make it to seven. If that happens, then this becomes a very effective approach. With that in mind, let’s talk about each of the six mock drafts.

Our first mock in this scenario one of the two QBs make it to seven. This could happen if Tunsil, Ramsey, Jack, Buckner, Bosa and the other QB are taken with the first seven. This is a pretty likely scenario. Elliott and Stanley could also be picked in the top six so the Cowboys gain picks and still get a future QB.

With the second pick they get the DE which is still the biggest hole the Cowboys have on defense this year. In the third round the Cowboys get a disruptive 3 tech. I am not sure Jones will be there; I have seen him mocked everywhere from early second or late third. With the fourth pick they pick up a physical corner (Howard) who can replace Carr next year. With the 5th pick, they then get a speedy receiver that can stretch the field. Drake is a running back that is a receiver out of the backfield.

Think Dunbar with a little more durability who can also get you 6-8 runs a game, and is a dynamic returner. Schobert is a classically run and hit linebacker. He is underrated and could be a starter given time to build up strength. He would be a great special teams guy and backup his first couple of years. In the sixth, the Cowboys get a fullback, a center/guard whom they can groom, and a tall, rangy safety.

In the second mock, the Cowboys get the best RB in the draft. The beef up the offense again with the second pick, getting Fuller as a starter opposite Bryant. Then the next five picks go defense. They grab Howard to strengthen the CB group. Dion Jones is a star in the making. He can run (4.55) and he can hit which makes him a playmaker. They then go get two DEs to add to the mix (Blair and Kaufusi). With their last fourth round pick they get a touch safety that can make plays (Thompson). In the sixth, they get a QB, a fullback and a C/G to groom.

In option three, the Cowboys decide to get Lawson early. In doing so, they get arguably the best DE in the draft. The Cowboys then take a DT (either Clark or Butler) in the early second. With the third pick they get a starting caliber running back (yes I do think Dixon will last to the third). With the fourth the Cowboys go with a wide receiver who has a lot of upside (Shepard). Mills is probably more of a corner than a safety. He would give the Cowboys flexibility. The Cowboys come back and pick up a slot corner with Cyrus Jones who is also a solid returner. The Cowboys then get a developmental QB with the strongest arm (Jones). They follow this up by getting another safety, a fullback, and a developmental C/G.

In the fourth mock, the Cowboys get the best corner in the draft. He is a polished day one starter. They then get a starting caliber running back that is a game breaker. The third pick is a highly productive DE from Penn St. he would be the starter as a left DE. Miller is an explosive receiver with high upside and would add a new dynamic to the Cowboys offense. Jordan Jenkins is sliding down boards. The Cowboys should be thrilled to get him in the fourth. He is a top 50 talent, he is the right kind of player, and he is a special talent. Collins is a disruptive tackle that can play the one and three. Dillion is slipping down boards, but he is a very talented safety. He would be an immediate contributor. The Cowboys then go get a heady QB, a FB, and a developmental C/G.

The dream mock is unlikely, but possible. If Tunsil goes one, Wentz two, Ramsey three, and the Cowboys trade down to seven so that the 49ers can get Goff at four. Then Jacksonville decides to take Bosa and the Ravens either trade back or they take either Buckner, Elliott, or Stanley at six. Then Jack could fall to seven. What could make this happen? Maybe Jacksonville has Bosa higher on the board and Baltimore wants to build up their line. Or perhaps Jack has a bad medical (or just a lukewarm one).

In the dream too mock, the Cowboys land Ramsey. Now I agree this is farfetched, but stranger things have happened. Let’s look at two ways it can happen. The first way is if there are three QBs taken early. Let’s say that a team moves up to one to get their QB (Let’s say Wentz). Then Cleveland takes a QB (Goff). With the third, the Chargers then take Tunsil. The Cowboys then trade out to San Fran who take Lynch. With the fifth the Jags take Jack. With the sixth, the Ravens take Bosa. For this to happen, the Ravens have to have Bosa rated higher than Ramsey, the Jags would have to have Jack higher than Ramsey, and there has to be at least two teams that move up for QBs.

The second way this might happen is if Tennessee takes Tunsil at one. Cleveland then takes a QB. San Diego surprises everyone by taking Stanley, Bosa, or Buckner (maybe an outside chance it is Treadwel). Let’s say it is Stanley. Then the 49ers move up for Goff. Then the Jags take Jack. The Ravens then have Ramsey, Bosa or Buckner. In our scenario, we assume they have one of them rated higher than Ramsey. Someone could also move up to get someone they covet. So the Ravens could trade out to someone who wants Bosa or Lynch.

Again, these are not probably scenarios, but they are possible ones.

Well that’s all for today. As I stated before, this is not my favorite trade down scenario. It is only good if one of the QBs fall to seven, or better still if Jack or Ramsey falls down to them. The most likely first pick in this scenario is a QB or Elliott. If that does not work out, Shaq Lawson would be the third option.

Let me know your thoughts. I appreciate your feedback and comments. Keep them coming.

Tommy Simon

Tommy Simon is an entrepreneur, writer, speaker and sports enthusiast. He is currently CEO of TechBAA, an investor and board member of TPC Technical and CommunitesFIrst, and acting CFO for ALS Communities. In addition to investing and advising companies, Tommy is also a Sales Management coach and is working with companies as a Fractional CMO/CSO. Tommy is a life long football player, coach and Cowboy fan. He currently coaches and sponsors several 7 on 7 teams. He manages/coaches an adult flag football team that is the top team in Florida one of the highest ranked teams in the country. Tommy's hobbies include international travel, fantasy football, reading, and engaging in intelligent political discourse. He is married to a wonderful women for 18 years; which is the best thing he has ever accomplished. He has a dog that is the best dog ever. He also has 9 siblings and roughly 30 nieces and nephews. For more information about tommy, or to request him to speak, please contact him at info@techbaa.com

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