It’s so early in the NFL offseason that free agency won’t open until tomorrow, and it’s only the legal tampering period.
Full free agency begins on March 13th, and the first waves will be made by the teams with the most cap space to add the top free agents.
Some of those free agents will be offered such ridiculous contracts from teams that are annually at the bottom of the barrel that it will be enough to have the player forego a chance with a better franchise.
Trust me when I tell you that the Dallas Cowboys are NOT one of those teams, and will not be signing any of the top free agents.
The Cowboys front office has already left a trail of breadcrumbs to tell us that they won’t be players in free agency.
I recently wrote about how they will continue with their frugal ways when free agency opens, electing instead to wait until the third or fourth wave of free agency for roster help.
The NFL Draft is coming in April, but Cowboys fans want to see some of the major positions get addressed in free agency.
Especially because the team is close to getting over the hump in the playoffs, and the Green Bay loss seems to be taken as a one-off by Cowboys executives.
It’s not as simple as just running the same team back when 13 players will hit free agency, including 11 who were key contributors on their respective side of the ball.
Today, I want to play a little game and try to figure out what the starting roster is going to be without yet knowing how free agency and the draft will go.
Offense
The Cowboys have four key players on the offensive side of the ball who will not be returning to the team as of March 10, 2024.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott
Despite contract negotiations reportedly coming to a standstill, the quarterback for the Cowboys in Week 1 of the 2024 season will be Dak Prescott for the ninth year in a row.
Prescott will be coming off arguably the best season of his career, finishing second in MVP voting to Lamar Jackson.
Although it’s a solid argument to say Prescott had a better statistical season, Jackson took his team further in the playoffs, and that seemed to make a difference for voters.
In a move that’s probably not that surprising, I think Trey Lance will take the backup job over Cooper Rush.
Running Back
Veteran free agent/rookie draft pick
The Cowboys’ running back room is depleted after both Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle have entered free agency.
Deuce Vaughn remains the only running back on the 53-man roster, with Malik Davis available from the practice squad.
Neither player has done enough to garner confidence as the lead or top back in the offense.
Dallas will definitely draft a running back at some point in the draft, and that rookie will start unless a veteran can be brought in at a palatable price.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert
Dallas’ base offense can be considered a 3×1 lineup with three wide receivers, one tight end, and one running back.
With the recent news that the Cowboys have given Michael Gallup permission to seek a trade, it’s unlikely we will see #13 in Arlington next season.
Jalen Tolbert will be tasked to take over that role in this third season, ceding the rest of the snaps to starters CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks.
If Tolbert can show any of the traits that had the Cowboys referring to him as “NFL-ready” coming out of college, it will be a formidable trio at wide receiver.
Tight End
Jake Ferguson
There’s no reason to believe Jake Ferguson cannot rise to the elite ranks of the tight end position in his third season.
Ferguson had a breakout year in 2023, catching 71 passes on 102 targets for 761 yards and five touchdowns.
He is quickly becoming one of Prescott’s favorite targets, and if it weren’t for Lamb and his 135 receptions, Ferguson would have easily caught 100+ passes.
Ferguson is also a load to bring down after the catch, and one of the most entertaining players to watch on the field.
Offensive Line
Tyler Smith, TJ Bass, Brock Hoffman, Zack Martin, Terence Steele
The Cowboys’ offensive line is far from the Great Wall of Dallas II nickname it was given a short eight years ago.
Prescott was a rookie back then, and a powerful offensive line opening up holes for fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott was a thing of beauty.
One of the stalwarts of those offensive lines was Tyron Smith, and he has moved on after 13 productive seasons.
Despite playing at an All-Pro level in 2023, the left tackle succession plan will be put in motion and Tyler Smith will take over at left tackle.
That leaves a huge hole in the interior of the line at left guard and center after also losing Tyler Biadasz to free agency.
For now, TJ Bass and Brock Hoffman will fill those slots, but I believe the Cowboys will be targeting the interior offensive line in the draft.
Mainstays Zack Martin and Terence Steele will continue in their respective positions as right guard and right tackle.
Tomorrow we will dive into my roster projections on the defensive side of the ball.