Could Ezekiel Elliott Playing Sunday Hurt Cowboys in the Long Run?

Ezekiel Elliott is now confirmed to be playing this Sunday in the Dallas Cowboys’ season opener against the New York Giants. It feels like a small victory as the war between Elliott and the NFL …

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Ezekiel Elliott is now confirmed to be playing this Sunday in the Dallas Cowboys’ season opener against the New York Giants. It feels like a small victory as the war between Elliott and the NFL league office rages on over his suspension for a domestic violence accusation. However, could the end result be a net loss for the Cowboys?

Unless Elliott is granted his injunction by a federal judge, which we should know within the next few days, then his full six-game suspension would begin starting in Week 2 of the NFL season. That would mean Zeke misses the Cowboys’ Week 8 game, which is on the road against Washington (Cowboys have their bye on Week 6).

At home versus the Giants, or on the road versus Washington; which division rivalry game would you rather have Elliott for?

Ezekiel Elliott, Giants
RB Ezekiel Elliott (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

There are many ways to look at this question. Last year, the Cowboys got swept by the Giants but then swept Washington. That alone may sell you on wanting Elliott to help you against New York. Still, whether wins or losses, all of these games were close:

  • Week 1 – Giants 20, Cowboys 19
  • Week 2 – Cowboys 27, Washington 23
  • Week 12 – Cowboys 31, Washington 26
  • Week 14 – Giants 10, Cowboys 7

With only four and five-point wins against Washington, it’s arguable that not having Zeke may have swung those games the other way. Washington should be improved on defense this year, adding Zach Brown at middle linebacker and former Cowboy Terrell McClain to their defensive line. An 8-8 team last year, the Cowboys’ greatest rival is not going to be a pushover in 2017.

In two games against Washington, Cowboys running backs had 205 yards and four touchdowns on 50 carries (4.1 average). In the two games against the Giants, they had 196 yards and one touchdown on 52 carries (3.77 average). It’s a difference, but perhaps not as big as you might have assumed. The general perception was that New York handled the Cowboys’ offense better than anyone last year, but clearly Washington wasn’t far behind.

Another basic element to consider is a home game versus an away game. Being able to dominate time-of-possession and pummel the opposing defense with the run is even more valuable on the road than at home. You can take the excitement, and thus the crowd, out of the game. It’s always good to be able to lean on your most reliable strengths in a hostile environment.

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RB Darren McFadden versus NY Giants in 2015 (Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports)

The backup running backs also need to be considered. Dallas will be leaning on two veterans, 30-year-old Darren McFadden and 28-year-old Alfred Morris, during Ezekiel Elliott’s absence. Common sense says that legs will be fresher in Week One than in Week Eight. Would McFadden be more effective this Sunday against the Giants than seven weeks later in Washington?

Another factor at work is the status of Giants’ star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. He is still not practicing after an ankle injury two weeks ago and his availability for Week One is in question. If Beckham, the focal point of the Giants offense, misses the game then could the Cowboys have afforded to be without Elliott?

You can take this in a lot of different directions, but clearly it’s not as simple as you may have thought initially. Cowboys fans are obviously happy that Zeke will be playing Sunday, hungry for a win against the Giants after those three-straight losses. But they don’t hand out Lombardi Trophies, or even NFC East titles, for just those games. The big picture is what really matters.

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RB Alfred Morris celebrates a touchdown against Washington in 2016

One way to look at this is the “bird in hand” argument. Right now, Week 1, we know who’s coming to town with these Giants. What’s more, there’s a chance that Odell Beckham won’t be with them. Maybe getting this win right here, right now, will serve us better in the long run.

Who knows what injuries may do by Week 8, and just how good or bad that Washington team may be by mid-October?  Naturally, the same goes for the Cowboys. If Kellen Moore or Cooper Rush are playing in that Week 8 game, who’s in at running back might be irrelevant to the outcome.

Hindsight will be the ultimate judge here, but it’s still interesting to consider. The possibility that Ezekiel Elliott won’t miss a single game in 2017 is still on the table, which would obviously make this a moot discussion. But in a league where a single game can decide a playoff spot or home field advantage, these scenarios and ripple effects are worth looking at.

14 thoughts on “Could Ezekiel Elliott Playing Sunday Hurt Cowboys in the Long Run?”

  1. I like your analysis. However since Dallas struggled to beat the Giants last year and the Giants defense seemed to have Dallas’s number, I think it is best to beat the Giants now and with Zeke and a home game this is more likely.

    • I agree. I’d rather go Zeke-less for the Skins than NYG. Of course, I’d also like to see decent play calling from Linehan against NYG this year; he was terrible last year.

    • You can really go either way on this one, depending on how you feel about the variety of factors. No wrong answer.

  2. Jess, I will concur with other comments about giants defense, and add they will/should be a TOP 5 D. I want Zeke playing against them, they beat us 2/2 and I don’t care @ OBJ’s availability I still fear their other WRs esp as we have so little depth at CB with our hammy constricted rookie DBs. The Giants are favored to win the Division or come in 2nd so they are the Cowboys most serious threat. Plus by the Redskins week 8 game we get Irving and Moore back from suspension and Hitchens might be back.

    • All great points, Ethan, especially about our young secondary. I’m also nervous about them this Sunday, especially now that it looks like OBJ will be playing.

  3. A lawyer friend of mine was in the courtroom yesterday. He predicts, based on the Judges reactions and comments, that Zeke will get the TRO and with appeals will play the entire year.

  4. Can’t control the future, but can control the now. Playing Zeke whenever possible is common sense, unless the game has no consequence towards playoffs.

  5. I think this whole mess is B.S. Whatever happened to you had a right to face your accuser? I noticed that this arbitrator didn’t allow that to happen. The NFL and Goodell have just kind of ignored the fact that this woman is a fruit cake. You can’t believe a word that comes out of her mouth, and it is a known fact that she plotted to get him into trouble. Zeke had to put a restraining order on her to keep her away. This nut-job is stalker material. But of course Goodell and the NFL have just looked the other way on all of that. Goodell needs to go. He sucks as commissioner. His policies are all over the place. Elliott made some not so intelligent decisions and Goodell targeted him to make an example out of him.

    • It is hard to understand the league’s attitude in this matter. While I certainly don’t want to advocate blaming the victim, blindly believing is perhaps even more dangerous. The league is sending the message that you can cause a whole lot of a hell for their players with nothing more than an accusation; zero burden of proof.

  6. I’m on board with your rationale, but I need Dallas and Dak to get the Giant monkey off their back this week so we can go ahead and put that narrative to bed.

    The Skins defense doesn’t scare me as much and I think the Dallas D actually matches up well with their offense sans Garcon, DeSean Jackson. Pryor and Reed will still be a lot to handle, and Crowder is tough, but they aren’t those other guys.

    • No argument here. I was more just presenting a different possible perspective than my personal viewpoint. I want the Giants to go down hard.

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