When discussing why he chose to sign with the Cowboys, defensive lineman Cedric Thornton said, "I think we have a chance to win a championship here. This isn’t a 4-12 team."
One of the most famous of Bill Parcells' many quotes is that, "You are what your record says you are." So which is it? Just what are these Dallas Cowboys right now?
Two years ago Dallas was a 12-4 NFC East Champion who won a playoff game and might have gone further if not for "The Non-Catch." Last year, injuries to that same receiver and quarterback Tony Romo were the catalysts for a plummet to the bottom of the NFL standings.
Given their conservative approach to the offseason, the Cowboys seem to agree with Thornton's perspective. They are banking on a return to 2014's success if everyone's healthy. Should we share that opinion?
Roster Comparison: Offense
The biggest concern for Dallas is if Tony Romo can be the same player he was in 2014; missing only one game and leading the league in completion percentage and passer rating. This is a painful "wait and see" element to next season that there's no way to evaluate now. Thankfully, all reports are that Romo is recovering well and should be ready to participate in training camp.
Can Darren McFadden and the newly-signed Alfred Morris be as dominant on the ground as DeMarco Murray was in 2014? The Murray-led rushing attack in 2014 totaled 2354 yards. Last year, despite the slow start from the failed Joseph Randle experiment, McFadden led the way for a total of 1890 yards. The difference comes out to about 30 yards per game.
While I don't think McFadden or Morris can as individually impressive as Murray was in 2014, they don't have to be. Romo's return alone will open things up for more explosive running. Having more maturity among the interior line, particularly with La'el Collins entering his second year, will be a positive. Throw in whatever you might get from Lance Dunbar and it's very reasonable to project the same level production as two years ago.
Bottom line; if this offense has everyone healthy then they can every bit as dominant as they were in 2014. The key will obviously be Romo returning to his old form but he will be helped by logical development and improvement in the offensive line. The likely competition between Terrance Williams and Brice Butler for a starting job should push that number-two receiver spot to a new height, also.
Roster Comparison: Defense
You have every reason to be worried about the lack of upgrades so far at defensive end. However, one sliver of optimism comes from looking back at the 2014 team.
Those Cowboys accomplished everything we've outlined despite ranking in the bottom-five of the NFL in sacks. Jeremy Mincey led the team with just six sacks, Henry Melton had five, and George Selvie and Tyrone Crawford each had three. Rookie DeMarcus Lawrence only played in seven regular season games and struggled once he was activated from injury, only just starting to make an impact in the playoffs.
On the heels of posting seven sacks in the final eight weeks of last year, Lawrence should be better in 2016 than any pass rusher we had two years ago. Crawford had five sacks last year playing with an injured shoulder all season. While we don't know what Benson Mayowa can really do yet, Dallas is paying him nearly $3 million a year on the faith that he should at least be better than George Selvie was.
We haven't even mentioned Randy Gregory yet. Anything you get from Gregory this year will be gravy, but the second-year player has the potential to explode once he comes back from suspension. Dallas will be able to work with him all offseason and preseason. If the player we saw in the 2015 preseason hits the field in Week 5 then he could be a more dangerous player than anyone we had two years ago.
At linebacker, Sean Lee didn't play at all in 2014 and is a clear positive going forward. If Dallas can finally get Lee and McClain to stay on the field together then they will be better off than at any time in the last several seasons. They're also bringing back the same crop of reserves and strongside options who should all be better with more experience.
The secondary has the potential to be even better than 2014, also. Orlando Scandrick is the big x-factor coming back from a major injury. If Brandon Carr is back then he should be about the same level of player as two years ago, whatever you think that's worth. Morris Claiborne was much improved last season and will be playing to save his career on a one-year deal.
Byron Jones wasn't here in 2014 and, now entering his second year, could be a major upgrade at either corner or safety. If he's at safety, that could free up Barry Church to play closer to the line of scrimmage and be more aggressive.
Oh, and then there's this business called "the draft." Dallas could easily spend their first two picks on a pass rusher and a defensive back, adding even more talent. Even if guys like Gregory and Scandrick aren't able to contribute the way we'd want them to, the 2016 defense still has potential to be more talented and effective than the "historically bad" group from 2014.
These Stats Don't Lie
The road to 4-12 last year was paved with many close games. In all 12 of their losses Dallas was down by an average of 10 points. However, two blowouts in New England and Green Bay inflate that number. In the other ten games the margin drops to just over seven points; one touchdown.
I think we'd all agree that a healthy Romo and Dez are good for an extra touchdown each week. In 2014 Romo had 34 touchdowns in 15 games, which is over two per game. Last year the combination of Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel, and Kellen Moore had just 11 touchdowns in 12 games.
Another glaring statistic is redzone efficiency. In 2014 the Cowboys were second in the NFL at scoring touchdowns when entering the redzone, doing it 65% of the time. Last year that number crashed down to 44%, dropping them to 30th in the league. Romo's play-making ability and chemistry with guys like Dez, Witten, and Beasley goes a long way to fixing that.
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While Romo's return is the obvious swing factor that makes next year's team look more like the NFC East Champions of two years ago, we have seen here that there are many other reasons for optimism. Many young players who contributed in 2014 are still here and more experienced. Other positions have been upgraded from last year's draft.
Like Thornton said, nothing about these Cowboys says "4-12" on paper.
Let's just hope that paper isn't so thin this year.
Leighton Vander Esch To Top Rookie Season With Pro Bowl Trip
Dallas Cowboys' rookie Leighton Vander Esch has done enough to prove every single doubter wrong. When Roger Goodell called his name during the 2018 NFL Draft in Arlington, Texas, many in Cowboys Nation rejoiced at the thought of having a young linebacker for a defense surrounded with uncertainty. However, many analysts doubted the draft pick. For a lot of people (sadly, I include myself in this category), the pick should've been used on another player. For most, despite acknowledging his raw talent, Vander Esch wouldn't be able to provide the Cowboys with an instant impact player. Ah, well.
After a remarkable season, Vander Esch (a.k.a. Wolf Hunter) has earned a spot on this season's second-team All-Pro. When the Pro Bowl voting began, Vander Esch was snubbed from the ballot itself. It didn't took the NFL long to realize their mistake and add the Cowboys' linebacker to the list. Despite missing the cut at first, Vander Esch will be heading to Orlando to play in this year's Pro Bowl on January 27th.
The former Boise State Bronco will be replacing Carolina Panthers' LB Luke Kuechly, who won't be participating because of an injury.
Vander Esch racked up 140 tackles (per Pro Football Reference), ranking third in the league in this category. He finished the season as the fifth best linebacker in Pro Football Focus' rankings.
But numbers aren't really enough to fully appreciate what Vander Esch did for the Dallas Cowboys. A team that was used to seeing its defense break when veteran Sean Lee went down injured, did not only get someone to fill in for Lee. Vander Esch actually upgraded the Cowboys' defense. It didn't matter where the ball went, he was always around when opponents were tackled. His speed and chance of direction allowed him to run sideline to sideline, covering a huge portion of the field.
Along Jaylon Smith, Dallas managed to have one of the best linebacker duos in the NFL.
The last time a defensive rookie from the Cowboys went to the Pro Bowl was in 1981, when Everson Walls made the team. Vander Esch is the 11th rookie in team history to be selected to the Pro Bowl. This year, the rookie will be accompanied by DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Jones, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and Ezekiel Elliott.
Cowboys Expect C Travis Frederick Back for Offseason Program
Lost in yesterday's hoopla over Scott Linehan's return was a positive report about Center Travis Frederick. In his comments to the media, Jason Garrett said that Frederick's recovery timetable should allow him to a full participant in the team's offseason program.
After never missing a start in his first five years, Travis missed all of 2018 dealing with the effects of Guillain-Barré Syndrome. The disease attacked his neurological system and required immediate and intensive treatment.
Jason Garrett says the team anticipates Travis Frederick being involved in the offseason program right from the start this spring if he continues on the same positive track in recovery from Guillain-Barré syndrome. #cowboyswire
While Joe Looney performed admirably in Frederick's absence, he's not an elite talent. Travis has been arguably the best center in the NFL since entering the league in 2013.
It's hard to qualify what effect not having Frederick had on the Cowboys offense in 2018. Ezekiel Elliott still led the league in rushing, but short-yardage plays weren't as automatic as we've seen in past years. A 4th-and-1 stuff was part of what led to the Cowboys' loss this past Saturday.
Dak Prescott was the second-most sacked QB in the NFL in 2018. After being sacked just 25 and 32 times in his first two seasons, the number skyrocketed to 56 sacks.
That's not all on Frederick, of course. Tyron Smith had some health issues and there were was turnover at left guard.
But having your All-Pro veteran center out there to help with the pre-snap reads, and help the rookie guard on his left, might have helped avoid some of those issues.
Indeed, Travis Frederick's return is just one of many reasons for optimism with the 2019 season. One of the best players on the team, he was sorely missed this year and can only help as Dallas looks to build on their division title and playoff appearance.
For Cowboys to Beat the Rams, Dak Prescott must Lead the Way
In the NFL wins and losses often come down to quarterback play. That isn't to say that if a team wins, it was all because of the quarterback and inversely, if a team loses that it was all on the quarterback. Teams win or lose games. Generally speaking, however, the quarterback has the highest amount of influence on the outcome of an NFL game. This will be no different for the Dallas Cowboys this Saturday when they take on the Los Angeles Rams in the LA Coliseum. For America's Team to make their first trip to the NFC Championship Game since 1996, Dak Prescott has to have a good game.
This looks to be a good matchup for the Dallas Cowboys offense, which should allow Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to take advantage in certain areas.
A few Rams Passing Game Notes
- The Los Angeles Rams were middle of the pack against the pass this season, allowing the 14th fewest passing yards in the league this season.
- The Rams allowed 7.7 yards per attempt. Dak Prescott is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt since week 10 of the season.
- The Rams allowed the eighth most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season. They and the New Orleans Saints are the only teams in the top 10 of passing touchdowns allowed in the playoffs this season.
- The Rams were 15th in the NFL in sacks, with 41, but Aaron Donald accounted for half of that with 20.5 sacks on the season. No other player had more than five sacks.
- They were third in the NFL in interceptions, collecting 18.
- The Rams allowed the ninth highest yards per completion on the season at 11.8. So on average, every completion went for a first down.
Dak Prescott is playing as well as any quarterback in the playoffs at the moment. Over the last nine games, he's averaging 272 passing yards, two total touchdowns, was only intercepted four times, and was sacked on average 3.2 times per game.
On Saturday night, we saw Scott Linehan put the ball in his hands on a couple designed runs that nearly scored touchdowns. It was an excellent addition to the offense that could help fix the Cowboys red zone woes. Getting Dak Prescott running on some designed runs or quarterback draws could help slow down Aaron Donald and the pass rush.
The Cowboys needed every bit of Dak Prescott magic to overcome a stingy Seattle Seahawks defense in their Wild Card win and they'll need him to step up again this week against the Rams. Every team is going to attempt to take away the running game to make Dak beat you and as he continues to mature, he's getting more and more comfortable doing that. He's comfortable with the big stage and the big moments.
Dak Prescott Since 2016, including playoffs * 15 game-winning drives (Most in NFL) * 13 primetime QB wins (Most in NFL) * 19 rush TD (Most in NFL by QB) #DallasCowboys @dak
No Quarterback in the NFL has more game winning drives, rushing touchdowns, or wins in primetime than Dak Prescott. When we talk about Dak Prescott, we talk a lot about the things that he can't do as a passer and deservedly so, he still has some growing to do in that area, but in the things that you can't objectively quantify -- mental toughness, resiliency, clutchness, will, determination -- Dak is one of the best in the NFL. He's as mentally tough as they come in the NFL and he doesn't let the spotlight or the game situation phase him. He has that stuff that's hard to put your finger on.
The Dallas Cowboys will need more of that on Saturday night in Los Angeles. The Rams can score and can score in bunches and if the Cowboys defense starts sluggish or has an off night, they'll need Dak Prescott to keep them in the game. Even if the defense has a good game, Dak still has to come through in the passing game and on the ground to give the Cowboys a chance to pull off the upset.
The Dallas Cowboys are going to try to run the ball against the Rams on Saturday. That's their identity; run the ball, control the clock, and be efficient in the passing game. Prescott, either with his legs or with his arm will have to make some plays to extend drives and keep the Rams offense on the sideline. He'll need to be sharp in the red zone to convert those opportunities into touchdowns. Settling for field goals against the Rams is how the Cowboys get beat.
This matchup with the Rams looks to set up nicely for Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys, yet how things look on paper doesn't mean much when the lights go on and the whistle blows. It's a big stage and it's another win-or-go-home game for the Cowboys (like every game has been over the last nine weeks). In a big game, you need big time players, and the Cowboys have one in quarterback Dak Prescott.
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