The other day I got a wild hair and tweeted out the idea that Dallas could try and sign Von Miller. That's right; the reigning Super Bowl MVP and arguably the best defensive player in the NFL. Knowing that Miller was franchise tagged by the Denver Broncos, I included the price of signing him in my proposal.
Here's a crazy idea... Dallas sends #4 and next year's first to Denver for Von Miller. #CowboysNation
I get crazy ideas all the time and dismiss them quickly. This one, however, is still lingering. The more I think about it the less crazy I think it is.
Maybe I've still got stars in my eyes from the playoffs. Watching Miller dominate in the AFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl left a mark on me. No matter what sport you're watching, you want the guys who are at their best when the lights are brightest.
I also recognize that I'm probably being influenced by the news of DeMarcus Lawrence's four-game suspension. Having both Lawrence and Randy Gregory out to start next season is troubling, not just for those four games but for what they could face with another offense. If the drug is marijuana then the next offense is a 10-game suspension and it's a whole year for other drugs.
So yes, I may be flirting with panic mode a little in this idea. Still, I can't help but see the merit.
I know we're talking about an enormous cost. Not only are you giving up the draft picks but you'd then have to sign Miller to a huge contract. However, looking at each of those factors separately makes them seem less daunting.
The word out of Denver is that Miller wants to be the highest paid defensive player in the NFL; topping the $19 million annual salary that Ndamukong Suh is enjoying in Miami. It's not unreasonable given the season that Miller just had. In fact, I would argue that Miller's stock right now is even higher than Suh's was when he entered free agency.
As I recently discussed on our site, Dallas has a tight salary cap right now but has several options for clearing space. They can make room for a top-priced guy like Miller and can also find ways to structure the deal that keeps the cap hit low early only by front-loading the signing bonus.
They absolutely CAN make it work financially. The real question is whether or not the Cowboys' front office would make such a dramatic shift from the way they've been managing contracts lately.
Dallas hasn't spent big money on an external free agent in four years, the last being Brandon Carr in 2012. They've even been more judicious with their own guys, such as when they released DeMarcus Ware and declined to re-sign DeMarco Murray. However, as we've seen with the contracts of Tyron Smith and Dez Bryant, Dallas is still okay with paying top dollar to guys who have their full confidence.
The Draft Picks
I'm sure some would argue that giving up two first-round picks for any player is a bad idea. Others would say that they'd only do it for a quarterback. I don't fault anyone who has either of these opinions.
That said, let's really look at what you're giving up. Assuming they don't trade down, the Cowboys fourth-overall pick on Thursday night will likely bring them defensive back Jalen Ramsey or running back Ezekiel Elliott. What if Von Miller was in this class? Would he be the top guy on Dallas' board?
Remember, Miller was the second pick in the 2011 draft. He was selected in one of the best top fives you'll ever hear; after Cam Newton and ahead of Marcel Dareus, A.J. Green, and Patrick Peterson. He was the best pass rusher then and would easily be the best one in the 2016 class.
Now, I know that getting Miller at age 27 isn't the same as age 22. But there is a trade off; you're getting a sure thing. You're acquiring a proven franchise player while he's still in his prime as opposed to a guy who you can only hope will work out as well. For a team that's trying to win during the limited window of Tony Romo's remaining years, that's a pretty big consideration.
As for the 2017 first-round pick, there are a few ways to look at that. If Dallas gets back to playoff contention with Romo's return then that pick should be somewhere in the mid-20s. They had the 27th pick in 2015 after going 12-4 and winning the division. It's certainly still a valuable pick but, ideally, won't be nearly the same as giving up something at the top of the draft.
Also, let's be honest about draft picks; there's not much more than a 50-50 chance that they work out. Again, we're talking a proven commodity in Von Miller as opposed to two rookies. Let's say you keep those picks and one kid completely busts (e.g. Mike Jenkins) and the other is a solid but ultimately disappointing pick (e.g. Terence Newman, Greg Ellis). You can't ignore that potential when looking at the value of picks compared to an established veteran.
~ ~ ~
Again, I'm not saying this is the right way to go or even a great idea. It's fraught with risk and goes against the more conservative roster management strategy that we've seen from Dallas in recent years. I ultimately applaud that approach and am excited for the team's future based on it.
Of course, Dallas could make the leap to try and sign Miller and Denver would just match the deal. We have to mention that possibility, although I think the Broncos would be very enticed to take the picks given where they are in contract negotiations and with their roster overall. Their ugly quarterback situation may have them thinking more about the long-term then trying to win back-to-back championships.
On paper, Dallas is the team that needs a guy like Von Miller far more than Denver. They're the team with a solid infrastructure trying to get a title before their aging quarterback retires, much like the Broncos last year. If there was ever a time to go against the conservative strategy and make a bold move, it is now.
I know this likely would never happen and it just a fun hypothetical. But the draft and dreaming tend to go hand and hand, don't they?
How Cowboys Could Benefit From Randy Gregory’s Suspension
Randy Gregory is back! His suspension is officially over and he will be able to join the Dallas Cowboys in Oxnard, California when training camp gets underway less than a week from now.
Speculation has already started as to what this could mean for the Dallas Cowboys defense this season, and shockingly expectations are rather high for a player who hasn't stepped foot on the field in over a year. But, that's not what I want to talk about today. Today I want to focus on Gregory's mess of a contract, because it is rather interesting.
Randy Gregory was signed to a four-year contract after being drafted by the Dallas Cowboys in the second-round of the 2015 NFL Draft. Gregory's rookie deal was set to expire at the conclusion of the 2018 season, but his multiple suspensions have now changed that expiration date.
You see, Gregory has only played in a total of 14 games in his career, 12 as a rookie and two in Year 2. His third year in the NFL was completely wiped out due to his year-long suspension. If you were to add that all up, it equates to just one accured season in the NFL. Remember that, because it could have a huge impact on his contract down the road.
What all of this means is that the Cowboys can pretty much stretch out Gregory's contract now that they are three years in on the deal and have only gotten one accured season out of the agreement. That basically means they can push his contract back a year, meaning his 2017 salary ($731,813) gets pushed back to 2018, his 2018 salary ($955,217) gets pushed to 2019. That would essentially make him a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) in 2020.
Or does it?
Depending on how the Dallas Cowboys handled paying Randy Gregory during his suspension could actually make him an Exclusive Rights Free Agent (EFA). This is a similar situation in which David Irving found himself in after the 2017 season. The Cowboys placed a second-round tender on him in order to secure his services for another season, albeit at a $2.91 million price tag.
As you can see, the Dallas Cowboys pretty much hold all the cards when it comes to Randy Gregory's contract situation. It's all a little confusing, but that's what makes it such a unique and interesting situation.
Of course, the Cowboys could decide to extend Gregory early if he completely dominates upon his return this season. It's highly doubtful though considering his past suspensions, but still technically a possibility. If it does happen, you can go ahead and ignore everything I've written previously.
Earl Thomas: Age is Just a Number Part II
Yesterday, I wrote a piece attempting to assuage the fears that many in Cowboys Nation have about handing a contract extension out to Earl Thomas, who is 29 years old as we enter the 2018 NFL season.
In the comment section, a reader posed a very good question that is the basis for the rest of this article:
It's a great question that certainly required some research, but Cowboys fans all across the world should be encouraged by my findings.
Just to refresh, here are the players we looked at as favorable comparisons to Earl Thomas at this point in his career. I searched Pro Football Reference for safeties who had at least three All-Pro First Team selections and at least six Pro Bowl appearances.
The average age of the players listed at the time when they reached their third All-Pro was 31 years old. I'm removing Deion Sanders and Roger Wehrli from the equation as most of their work was done at cornerback.
Let's look at a chart that outlines what these guys careers looked like at age 29 and beyond to get a better picture. Remember, Earl Thomas already has three All-Pro selections and six Pro Bowls. Many of these guys didn't reach those kind of accolades until their 30s.
The first thing I noticed as I looked into this question is that only two players had three or more All-Pro First Team selections prior to age 29, like Earl Thomas has. Those players were Rod Woodson and Ronnie Lott. Every other player on this list didn't hit their third All-Pro selection until age 29 or later.
Only one player reached his sixth Pro Bowl prior to his age 29 season, that player is Ronnie Lott, who many NFL Analysts consider to be the greatest safety of all-time. Most of the players didn't achieve their third All-Pro selection until their age 29 season or later. Earl Thomas reached his third All-Pro selection at age 25.
Here's a hot take for you: Earl Thomas, when it's all said and done could be considered the greatest safety of all-time. I'll just leave that there to marinate and if a trade does happen, we'll come back to that.
Back to the chart.
Another thing I want to point out is that none of these players were 100% healthy. Such is the life in the NFL, especially as you get older, but they were available for at least 14 games a majority of their seasons aged 29 or later. Health is an unpredictable animal in the NFL, but the safety position allows for much more longevity than many other positions. And as the chart depicts, it's a position that ages well.
So, as you can see in the chart, players who were highly productive prior to their age 29 season were also highly productive for several seasons after. These players went onto average almost seven more years in the league from their age 29 seasons.
Most players continued to average a healthy amount of interceptions. The player that saw the biggest decline from the early part of his career to the post-29 part of his career was Brian Dawkins. The former Philadelphia Eagles and Denver Broncos safety went from three interceptions per season prior to 29 to 1.9 interceptions per season 29 and after.
When it comes to the safety position, the elite seem to be able to get the most of their bodies and their abilities and can prolong their prime. The position relies as much on intelligence and awareness as it does quickness and athleticism. Earl Thomas has the mental capacity to play the game for many more years and there's been zero evidence to suggest that he is experiencing any physical decline.
At the rate of his career that he's on, Earl Thomas is destined for the Hall of Fame. He's one of the faces of the Legion of Boom defense that propelled the Seattle Seahawks into the elite category of teams in the early part of this decade.
If and when an Earl Thomas trade does occur, don't sweat an extension for Thomas.
Thomas' credentials put him in an elite group of players who played the game for a very long time and there's no reason to believe he won't continue to do so.
The Dallas Cowboys aren't that far off from having a Super Bowl contending defense built in the image of the Seattle Seahawks. Going to get the All-Pro, future Hall of Fame safety is the final piece to the to the Dallas Cowboys completing construction on "Doomsday III."
Everything else is there for the Dallas Cowboys, now all they have to do is: Go. Get. Earl!
Noah Brown Takes to Twitter to Call Out ESPN
ESPN has long been considered "The Worldwide Leader in Sports," and for a long time that title was justified. If you wanted your national sports news, where did you turn to but the cable sports channel to watch that day's episode of SportsCenter. But over the last few years, it's become more and more clear that it's "The Worldwide Leader" in name only.
The ratings are dropping and the network has had to make a lot of business decisions as it relates to much of their on-air talent over the last several years. With their latest under 25 starting 22 -- ahem, troll job -- they seem to have finally come to terms that they are basically First Take.
Noah Brown put it best in his reaction to the ESPN "Insider" voting that led to Saquon Barkley being named to the starting 22 ahead of Ezekiel Elliott. Brown, Elliott's teammate when both were at Ohio State University, came to his defense upon seeing the list.
43 of our NFL Insiders voted. Here's their best starting roster under the age of 25.
I'm sure there could be debates about different positions on the squad. Personally, quarterback is one where an argument could be made for Carson Wentz or Dak Prescott over DeShaun Watson, but that's for another time.
But to have a rookie, who has never played a down in the NFL ahead of the NFL's league leader in rushing for 2016, Ezekiel Elliott, is laughable.
The fact that they had 43, again I use the quotations, "Insiders" vote on this and Ezekiel Elliott wasn't listed as one of the two running backs just shows you how far they've come as a network.
Let's remember that Ezekiel Elliott has averaged a touchdown a game -- receiving and rushing -- in his 25-game career. No running back has more rushing yards than Elliott does over the last two years, including 2017 league rushing leader, Kareem Hunt. No running back has more rushing touchdowns than Elliott's 22 rushing TDs.
Ezekiel Elliott's yards per carry is a healthy 4.63. Todd Gurley sits at 3.93. No player with more than 1,800 rushing yards over the last two years has a better yards per attempt than Ezekiel Elliott.
I get that you'd vote Todd Gurley in there, but to not have Ezekiel Elliott, arguably the game's best running back on your Under 25 starting 22 just makes you look like Skip Bayless or Stephen A. Smith. Not a sports journalism entity worthy of people throwing money at for "Insider" access.
I won't say that I never or will never watch ESPN, because where else am I gonna go for Monday Night Football, Todd Archer, or the NCAA Men's Lacrosse Championships? When I'm at my father-in-law's, I'll watch SportsCenter first thing in the morning, because it will be on and you don't change another man's television.
"The Worldwide Leader," however, loses credibility when they promote a list like this that has such a glaring omission.
Perhaps, maybe the goal wasn't to put out an accurate list. Maybe the goal was to get us talking about their list, just like when NFL Network releases their Top 100 players list. Like they say, there's no such thing as bad publicity.
This troll job from ESPN has certainly gotten them some publicity, or should I say, notoriety.
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