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Cowboys Week 13 Playoff Projection: “Playoffs? Are You Kidding Me?”

Jess Haynie

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Believe me, I know that the mere mention of the playoffs in connection with the Dallas Cowboys is sending you all into a Jim Mora-like tizzy. However, until the Cowboys actually have eight losses, sneaking into a Wild Card spot is not outside the realm of possibility.

All it takes is a couple of wins over the next three weeks and then Ezekiel Elliott returns. It's hard to say what's a "winnable game" anymore for Dallas, but we can say that the next three opponents all below .500 this year.

Here are the current NFC playoff standings:

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
  2. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
  3. Los Angeles Rams (8-3)
  4. New Orleans Saints (8-3)
  5. Carolina Panthers (8-3)
  6. Atlanta Falcons (7-4)
    --------------------------------------
  7. Seattle Seahawks (7-4)
  8. Detroit Lions (6-5)
  9. Green Bay Packers (5-6)
  10. Dallas Cowboys (5-6)
  11. Washington (5-6)
  12. Arizona Cardinals (5-6)

TIEBREAKERS

  • The Rams are ahead of the Saints thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker from Week 12.
  • The Saints are currently ahead of the Panthers thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker from Week 3. They play each other again this week.
  • The Falcons are ahead of the Seahawks thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker from Week 11.
  • The Packers have a head-to-head win over the Cowboys and a better conference record (4-4) than the Cardinals (3-5). Dallas is ahead of Washington thanks to a head-to-head win, so that puts Green Bay ahead of all three.
  • Washington (4-5) is ahead of Arizona (3-5) due to a better record against NFC opponents.

While we know the Cowboys making the playoffs is an incredible longshot at this point, these things have happened before. They will need help for it to happen, so that's why we'll now check out all of the relevant NFC matchups in Week 13 to see what would improve Dallas' playoff chances.

Washington @ Dallas Cowboys

Obviously, it all starts with Dallas getting off this wretched losing streak and handling business tonight. Washington is also 5-6 but, at least over the last few weeks, has looked like a better team than the Cowboys. Hopefully Dallas has figured out some ways to surprise their longtime rival and better utilize the players they have.

Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons

We should all be supporting the guys in purple pants. Atlanta is a tremendous threat given that they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Dallas and likely can't win their division with the Saints and Panthers above them. The Falcons have to start losing now to fall out of the Wild Card, and the 9-2 Vikings will hopefully hang one on them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers

With talk that Aaron Rodgers could be returning in Week 15, it'd be nice for the Packers to take a few more losses before then. They have the tiebreaker over Dallas from the victory earlier this year. It looks like Jameis Winston is going to return for Tampa, so maybe that will be enough for them to get the road win over Brett Hundley.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

There really isn't much advantage here for Dallas one way or the other.  With no head-to-head tiebreakers to consider, whoever wins the NFC South between these two doesn't look to really help or hurt the Cowboys.  Either way, a team with a good record stays in the Wild Card picture. What we really need is for both teams to beat the Falcons (two versus Saints, one versus Panthers) in their remaining games.

Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens

A game ahead of Dallas right now, Detroit is another team we need to root against. They're just good enough to hang around and make the Wild Card picture murkier. Go away, Lions.

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

It makes more sense for Dallas fans to pull for the Rams here. Arizona isn't really relevant, especially since the Cowboys have a head-to-head tiebreaker against them. More importantly, we're better off with the Rams winning the NFC West and keeping Seattle in the Wild Card. Not only do the Rams have a tiebreaker against us, but Dallas has a chance at getting a win over Seattle in Week 16. That will be Ezekiel Elliott's first game back.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks

Painful as it may be, we have to root for the Eagles this week. A Seattle loss, given the Seahawks threat in the Wild Card race, is better for the Cowboys now then anything that happens with Philly. There is so little chance of Dallas catching Philly in the NFC East now that the Seattle loss is far more useful.



Cowboys fan since 1992, blogger since 2011. Bringing you the objectivity of an outside perspective with the passion of a die-hard fan. I love to talk to my readers, so please comment on any article and I'll be sure to respond!

Game Notes

Cowboys, Redskins Week 7 Injury Report

Jess Haynie

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Cowboys, Redskins Week 7 Injury Report
Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Though it's still early in the 2018 season, the lead in the NFC East is up for grabs when the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins meet this Sunday. Both teams would like their full roster available for the game, but the Week 7 injury reports indicate that won't be the case.

Here are the players either confirmed to be out of action tomorrow or are otherwise listed by Dallas and Washington:

Dallas Cowboys

  • WR Tavon Austin (groin) - OUT
  • LB Joe Thomas (foot) - OUT
  • CB Chidobe Awuzie (ankle) - Questionable

The Cowboys are getting healthier, with Sean Lee finally off the injury report and set to return to action. Not only will Dallas get their elite linebacker back, but it means a deeper rotation while the team remains without Joe Thomas.

Tavon Austin elected to skip season-ending surgery on his injured groin, but his should be out a few weeks. That will put Cole Beasley on punt returns and perhaps create more offensive opportunities for Deonte Thompson and Brice Butler.

Awuzie remains limited in practice but has played the last few weeks despite the ankle injury. There is no reason to think he won't suit up in Washington.

Washington Redskins

  • WR Jamison Crowder (ankle) - OUT
  • WR Paul Richardson (shoulder, knee) - Doubtful
  • S Troy Apke (hamstring) - Doubtful
  • RB Adrian Peterson (ankle, shoulder) - Questionable
  • RB Chris Thompson (rib, knee) - Questionable
  • G Shawn Lauvao (calf) - Questionable
  • CB Quinton Dunbar (shin) - Questionable
  • CB Danny Johnson (forearm) - Questionable

It's a rough time for Washington's offensive weapons. They will definitely be without slot receiver Jamison Crowder and likely starter Paul Richardson, who current lead all WRs in receptions. Josh Doctson will put into a major role, as will veteran Brian Quick off the bench.

Peterson and Thompson both practiced this week and should play, but have nagging injuries that could slow them down. Washington is already missing Rob Kelley and rookie Derrius Guice, who are both on injured reserve.

Starting left guard Shawn Lauvao is also nursing a lower leg injury, but practiced in a limited capacity all week. His backup is undrafted rookie Casey Dunn out of Auburn.

In the defensive backfield, starting CB Quinton Dunbar was a Friday addition to the injury report with a shin injury. He did practice with it, though, so will likely play. Backup safety Troy Apke is doubtful with a hamstring issue.



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Game Notes

Cowboys Focused on Improved Communication to Solve Road Woes at Redskins

Sean Martin

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Cowboys Focused on Improved Communication to Solve Road Woes at Redskins

The Dallas Cowboys are 0-3 on the road this season. Not only do you already know this, but they do as well, needing to build off a 40-7 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 6 at AT&T Stadium to claim first place in the NFC East at the Washington Redskins.

Although the Cowboys were given Monday and Tuesday off, they are focused on addressing one alarming reason why the team has struggled so much on the road -- particularly on offense.

Running Back Ezekiel Elliott pointed out the Cowboys lack of communication in early season losses at Carolina, Seattle, and Houston. "Seeing the same thing," was the issue Elliott addressed when discussing the Cowboys knowing their assignments in hostile territory.

Yesterday, Quarterback Dak Prescott told the media of a meeting between players and coaches that addressed this specifically.

David Moore on Twitter

Dak Prescott said players & coaches held a meeting before today's practice to "address the elephant in the room," which is poor communication among the offense on the road. "I know we'll take a lot from that conversation," The QB said.

Unlike Prescott's remarks about new "wrinkles" in the Cowboys offense prior to a 26-24 home win over the Lions, this has a tangible sign of progress for an offense that made scoring 40 on the Jaguars look impossibly easy. The Cowboys season high in total yards remains the 414 amassed against Detroit, after which Prescott confessed that he simply tells the media "things" that aren't necessarily true.

The Cowboys didn't necessarily do anything new against the Lions, but they most assuredly will this week against the Redskins, at least by way of signaling and remaining in sync on offense.

Prescott and Elliott's leadership is on full display here, and their on-field impact can be attributed as closely to the Cowboys successes or failures as any duo in the NFL.

Missing is a similar impact from Center Travis Frederick, who remains sidelined as he deals with GSB.

Joe Looney's play at center has been good enough to pave the way for Elliott's 586 rushing yards so far, second to Todd Gurley at 623 yards, but his ability to call checks for the offense is understandably much more limited.

Looney deserves all the credit in the world for his strong play in place of Frederick. The Cowboys have never asked for him to be anything he isn't, a reliable depth option that earned a second contract and with it the starting center job for the time being in Dallas.

He has the full support of his teammates, Frederick included. All of this is lovely to put down in writing until Looney and the Cowboys have been forced to step on the field with the crowd against them and attempt to sustain a drive, something Frederick will unfortunately not be a part of for a long while.

If the Cowboys offense isn't going to unveil new wrinkles in the scheme, there is one wrinkle worth mentioning that's new to the team's communication on offense this season. With Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan up in the box, his play calls are sent down to first-year Quarterback Coach Kellen Moore, who has been in the ear of Prescott ever since playing with him from 2016-17.

Sure, these are things that could've been addressed before the Cowboys managed only eight points in week one, turned the ball over three times in week three, or punted away their best chance at victory in week five. The best teams in the league likely already have these things down to routine, and few would consider the Cowboys anywhere near the upper echelon of the NFL.

Following sixty minutes of football at a division rival they've won four in a row against, with an even more impressive five game win streak at the Redskins, the Cowboys could control their own path atop the NFC East.

That feels truly incredible for such a young team faced with a steep learning curve early in the season, adjusting to it on the fly as they prepare to leave everything on the field before a bye week.

Tell us what you think about "Cowboys Focused on Improved Communication to Solve Road Woes at Redskins" in the comments below. You can also email me at Sean.Martin@InsideTheStar.com, or Tweet to me at @SeanMartinNFL!



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Game Notes

#WASvsDAL: Why This Game Holds Increased Importance

Kevin Brady

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Cowboys Pass Rush Better than They're Given Credit For
James D. Smith/Dallas Cowboys

It feels incredibly cliche to call the week 7 match-up between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins a "must win." Especially for someone like me who values statistics, logic, and analytics in sports.

But when the analytics agree with the narratives, those narratives do tend to get my attention. And this week that would appear to be the case.

According to Brian Burke of ESPN, the Cowboys's week 7 game has the highest playoff probability leverage in the entire NFC, and is second to only the Houston Texans' big game with Jacksonville around the entire league.

Brian Burke on Twitter

Playoff leverage for week 7. DAL, WAS, PHI, CAR, MIN, CHI with a lot on the line in the NFC. HOU, CIN, and JAX in the AFC.

What does this mean? Well playoff probability leverage is pretty intuitive. Basically it is the difference between a win this week and a loss this week in terms of probability to make the playoffs.

For the Cowboys that number is at 27%, with a win over Washington catapulting their playoff probability over 50%. On the other hand, a loss would take a big hit to their playoff hopes just 7 games into the NFL season.

As you might expect, this game means a lot to the Redskins' playoff probability as well. Their playoff leverage this week is at 14%, but a win would mean "more" to Dallas than Washington based on the probabilities.

Fellow NFC East foe, the Philadelphia Eagles, also have a lot to gain/lose this Sunday, with their leverage sitting at 22%. According to Burke's model, the Eagles and Cowboys have the best chances of making the playoffs at this point, but if each team wins Sunday the Eagles will still have a higher percentage.

Of course a lot can and will change week to week, despite what the metrics say. The Cowboys still have two games remaining with the NFC East favorite Eagles this year, and will get another crack at Washington at home later in the season. Plus the Cowboys have a few NFC wild card and playoff contenders remaining on their schedule, such as the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. (Yes, the 2-4 Falcons are very much alive in this crazy conference).

Still, the difference between 4-3 (2-0 in the division) and 3-4 (1-1 in the division) is huge, as is shown by Brian Burke's playoff probability leverage metric.



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