It might only be week 3 of the 2019 NFL regular season, but speculation is always riding high in this league. Betting odds to win this year's NFL MVP have been around months before the season even started but they've been updated after everything we've seen so far. The league's front runner is – unsurprisingly – none other than Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The reigning MVP got off to another hot start this season and has been dominating opponents while throwing for 821 yards and seven touchdowns in only two games. Following the league's favorite for the award are other well-known quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, and Carson Wentz.
All of their odds to be named the MVP this season are below +1000. Which brings me to the following “tier.” Alongside Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson, Dallas Cowboys Quarterback Dak Prescott's odds sit at +2000. And I can't get over the value this represents.
Updated odds to win NFL MVP (Bovada):
Mahomes +270
Jackson +750
Brady +800
Wentz +900
Rodgers/Watson/Prescott +2000
Wilson +2200
Mayfield +2500
Goff/Ryan/Garoppolo/Rivers +3300
Cousins/Murray +5000
Donald +6000
McCaffrey/Barkley/Mack +6600— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) September 18, 2019
First of all, I'd like to point out I believe that Wentz and Jackson shouldn't be that far apart from Dak. I wouldn't have been surprised if that was the case prior to the regular season, but after witnessing what's in store for the Cowboys' offense, I just don't understand how separated are the odds.
The MVP is not handed out to the best player in the NFL. It's not the equivalent of the Heisman Trophy in college football. Its initials stand for “Most Valuable Player.” That implies that the trophy should be handed to a guy who's extremely important for his team's wins, which in turn means the trophy should be won by someone on a winning team.
Many complained about David Johnson not getting the award in 2016. How could he? The Arizona Cardinals won seven games that season. That's not what the MVP is about.
The Dallas Cowboys have a favorable schedule to open the season and they'll likely be 3-0 after their matchup with the tanking Miami Dolphins today. After that, a few challenges lie ahead, including the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles. Although it will be difficult, it's not that far-fetched to think they can go on a 8-0 streak or something close to it. When it's all said and done, with an NFL plagued with injuries, the Cowboys record could be really impressive by the time the season is over.
If Dak Prescott continues to throw the ball the way he has so far, he'll definitely be an MVP candidate. He's currently at seven touchdowns, and an average 337 yards passing per game. If Kellen Moore's offense is more than a two-week wonder (which is likely), Dak could be on pace for an unbelievable year.
He's got the weapons and he's got the offensive coordinator. As he continues to ball out while awaiting for a juicy contract extension, I'd be surprised if his recent success doesn't continue the rest of the season.
At +2000, betting on him to be the NFL's MVP is more than justifiable. It's a great value bet which can turn into big profits down the road. I'll certainly trust Prescott with a bet and see how it goes.
