If you read the first two articles in this series, you will understand when I say that the Dallas Cowboys will be a completely different team in 2017. If you haven’t read them yet, here are the links:
Hopefully, they’ll be healthier but they also have numerous expiring contracts and will need to fill them with new players. A third of the starters could be changed (certainly a fourth). The Cowboys will need to re-sign players, bring in free agents, or draft rookies for 18 possible positions.
While this should free up some cap space, it certainly will not provide enough relief for the Boys to be big spenders in the open market.
I am not a cap space expert, but with $20mil in expiring contracts, getting 7-8 million in relief by re-negotiating Brandon Carr’s contract, the cap space increasing 8-10mil, and with a little restructuring, say freeing up another 10mil, then the Boys should have 48mil to spend on the 17 to 18 positions.
Again, this is not based on in-depth analysis, but high-level estimating. Don’t quote me on those figures.
In this scenario, I can see them landing a star player for 10-12 million, signing four starters for 20mil, signing four key backup slots for 12mil, and have 8 to 9 draft picks/free agent signings at league minimums. This would be another 5-6mil or so.
So half of the 18 positions will need to be addressed with rookies or veteran free agent signings at the minimum veteran salaries. They will need at least four to five rookies to make the roster and provide quality playing time and salary relief.
Let’s look at the position-by-position needs we identified in our previous articles:
- Backup QB
- Starting RB
- Third Down Back
- Starting Fullback
- Backup Blocking TE
- Backup (Number 3) Receiver
- Backup Guard
- Another Backup Guard
- Starting Right Tackle or Backup Swing Tackle
- Starting Corner (either slot or outside)
- Backup Corner
- Backup Free Safety
- 5th safety/Special Teams
- Starting Middle Linebacker
- Starting or a backup SAM Linebacker
- Starting Defensive End
- Backup Defensive End
- Either a starting one or three technique
Now let’s rank them in order of importance. This is somewhat subjective, but I think we can agree on most of the prioritization.
Here is my list from top to bottom:
- Starting Defensive End
- Starting Corner (either slot or outside)
- Starting Middle Linebacker
- Starting One/Three Technique
- Starting RB
- Starting Right Tackle or Backup Swing Tackle
- Backup QB
- 3rd Down Back
- Starting Fullback
- Primary Backup Guard
- Backup Blocking TE
- Starting or Backup SAM Linebacker
- Backup (Number 3) Receiver
- Backup Slot Corner
- Backup Free Safety
- 5th Safety/Special teams
- 4th Guard/Center
- 4th Defensive End
So let’s look at some trends and stats. First, there will be needs at some very key positions. There could be as many as 8 starting positions that need to be filled. At a minimum, there will be at least 6 starting positions affected.
Assuming that you can get two of those positions filled with draft picks, you still need to sign three to five free agents to start. That is a lot to expect in free agency. So expect the Boys to bring Greg Hardy, MacKenzy Bernadeau, Rolando McClain, James Hanna, and possibly Morris Claiborne back.
Now, if you look at all the positions, the first twelve spots play significant roles (starters or critically key backups). Assuming you have a great draft and you can fill four of the roles with rookies (most likely only three), then that still leaves, at least, eight high-value positions to be filled in free agency or by re-signing players. Again, I would expect the Boys to try to land some key backups like Bernadeau and Hanna.
You can also see that the needs are evenly split between offense and defense. On offense, you have two starting positions (RB and Fullback) and one other possible starter (RT/Swing). But there are some other important backup positions needed (QB, 3rd Guard, 3rd Receiver, blocking TE).
On defense, there are at least four starting positions needed (DT, DE, Corner, and the Mike). The Boys could also use a starting SAM LB. However, unlike the offense, and other than the backup slot corner, the backup positions are lower in importance and can be filled with developmental players.
While the needs are split evenly between offense and defense, notice that 4 of the top 5 needs are defensive players. With that being the case, our defense could be dramatically better or worse next year. Having 4 to 5 new starters out of 11 possible positions is a significant change. Next year’s team will have a whole new identity.
I look forward to seeing what it is. I hope it is power, not finesse as it’s been of late. You can look at this as a challenge or as an opportunity to create a whole new identity.
Frankly, on the whole, to upgrade or replace 18 positions is a lot to expect from one draft and free agent class. That is why I do not think the Cowboys will make more than one splash signing. Other than possibly re-signing Hardy, I do not expect any big name signings this year. There are just too many needs and the money will have to be spread around amongst 10 key positions.
So now that we know we will need around 12-13 free agents (or returning players), we can predict the positions that are most likely to be addressed by bringing back players or signing free agents.
Here are the positions that seem to make the most sense to me and why:
Starting Defensive End
You need to have a starting caliber DE that makes an impact. Too hard to trust a draft pick to be an impact player. Also, the Boys need their early draft picks to use on other starting positions. I can see one possibility of drafting a DE early. If the Boys sign an impactful starting-caliber corner in free agency, then they could gamble on trying to draft a first round DE. But it’s a risky gamble.
Corner (probably backup slot corner)
I believe the Boys will sign a vet and draft a corner too. They need a starter and a reliable backup. I would love to see them sign a shutdown corner and then draft a corner in the mid-rounds. However, I don’t think they have the money to do that and so I think they sign a veteran for depth and draft a corner in the first two rounds.
Starting Middle LB
Again, this could be addressed in the draft, but it would need to be in the first three rounds. I don’t see the Boys doing that because they have other positions that will take priority. I could see them drafting MLB in the second round if the Boys sign a running back in free agency.
Backup QB
No draft pick is reliable enough to count on to win games in year one. The Boys need a definite upgrade and a proven commodity.
Starting Tackle or Backup Swing
We have Chaz Green so we need to team him with a veteran to give him time to work on his strength and technique. Hopefully, it will be starting tackle and we could move Doug Free to swing, upgrading both positions. However, the cap may make this unattainable.
Third-down Back
I really expect to see Lance Dunbar re-signed. Some team could throw money at him, but with his injury history, I do not think so. This should give the Boys the inside track on re-signing him.
Backup Guard
Too important of a position to rely on a rookie mid-round pick. Can they re-sign Bernadeau? Need a proven vet to step in if/when a starter goes down.
Starting SAM LB
Again, I do not foresee them using a high enough draft pick to get a starting caliber SAM linebacker. Save the pick and just go get a good value plug and play steady vet.
Backup Receiver
The Boys need a proven vet that can step up if Dez Bryant goes down. I do not see them drafting a receiver high enough in the draft to be impactful. So this should be addressed by signing a reliable vet in free agency.
Backup blocking TE
I can see the boys spending a draft pick from the 5th to 7th round on a blocking TE. But I think they will try to re-sign Hanna or go get a vet at near the minimum salary. Either way would not surprise me.
Fullback
This can be addressed in the draft, but honestly, there are a lot of cheap free agents out there with experience. The Boys should be able to find a fullback that can make more of an impact in the running game.
5th safety and special teams guru
I expect they will re-sign Jeff Heath. I do not see teams throwing money at him, so the Cowboys can get him. If they do not re-sign Heath, I bet that they will go with just four safeties on the roster. If that is the case, then they will sign a vet for depth’s sake.
The first six positions MUST be addressed in free agency or the draft. The final four should be addressed, but the Boys could survive without addressing them in free agency. But let’s assume our scenario plays out, that would leave the Boys 6 positions to be filled in the draft or with unsigned rookie free agents.
- One or Three technique
- Corner (could be starter or backup based on free agency signing)
- Starting Running Back
- Developmental Free Safety
- Developmental 4th DE
- Developmental 4th Guard
Now things never go as planned. But if I were in the Cowboys front office, I would have a plan of action similar to this.
I can’t see a situation that covers all 18 positions of need by re-signing their players and adding free agents. This means that contrary to their wishes, they’ll need to draft some players specifically to fill needs or voids. It’s called, “drafting for need” and that approach to the draft tends to backfire. A team can blow a whole draft by overreaching to take specific players in positions of need. So I imagine that having to play by this strategy will make the Boys take some chances they wouldn’t normally take. I also think it means they’ll be moving up and down a lot in this draft.
If they don’t follow this strategy then they gamble and take chances in other ways.
For example, if they don’t find a swing tackle, or can’t draft one early, they’ll promote Green to the primary swing tackle role. As I said earlier, I don’t think Green is ready for this. Deciding to promote Green could lead to disastrous situations. If one of the starting tackles goes down then he could be starting games and just one blown assignment away from allowing Tony Romo to go down again. So there will be definite tradeoffs to be made when considering to draft the best player available or drafting for need.
While I’m a proponent of the best player available approach, this year, I think they’ll need to draft more for need. Let’s just hope there is a good player in a position of need when we draft. Otherwise, we should be smart and drop down so that we don’t over-reach for need. Given the amount of needs that the Boys will have this offseason, I expect dropping down will be the strategy.
But with Jerry Jones strategies change quickly, so it’ll be fun to watch.
