Happy Thanksgiving Eve, Cowboys Nation!
Yes that's a real day.
About 24 hours from now we'll watch our Dallas Cowboys, fresh off of a victory in Miami, take on the 10-0 Carolina Panthers. How exhilarating!
The Cowboys are no strangers to big-time games against undefeated teams. On November 19th, 2006 they hosted the 9-0 Indianapolis Colts in Tony Romo's first start at home. Indy was unable to get to 10 wins as Dallas handed them the first loss of their World Championship season.
What's the old saying, doing something twice makes it a tradition? Well on December 19th, 2009 the Cowboys took on the 13-0 New Orleans Saints in the Superdome. With a game in Washington following their date against a team with no losses (like they've got on Thanksgiving) the Cowboys had an emphatic win against the eventual World Champions. A tradition was born!
We've got our own tradition going on here at Inside The Star. Every week, on the eve of gameday, I cook you up a batch of 5 Bold Predictions.
I know that this week is funky with Thanksgiving and all, but I am a chameleon and can adapt to anything!
As it is Gameday/Thanksgiving Eve, please allow me to present this week's rendition of my 5 Bold Predictions. Enjoy.
Jason Garrett's 1994 Thanksgiving Victory Will Be Mentioned At Least 7 Times
Thanksgiving comes with a lot of traditions: football in the yard, nice clothes, taking pictures with all of my aunts' phones, turkey, stuffing, Dallas Cowboys football, the list goes on and on.
Since Jason Garrett took the reins as the Dallas Cowboys Head Coach full-time in 2011 a new tradition has made its way into our lives. Death, taxes, and mentioning Jason Garrett's 1994 victory over the Green Bay Packers are the three unavoidable things in life.
On Thanksgiving 1994 Coach Garrett was called into action and had to quarterback the Dallas Cowboys against the Green Bay Packers. The Pack were one of the top teams in the NFL (what else has changed?) at the time and this was quite the tall task for young Jason.
The original Red Rifle rumbled his way through the game, though. He went 15/26 and threw for 311 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception... all in a winning effort.
You can bet your sweet potatoes that this will be mentioned at least seven times on Thanksgiving, but would we really want it any other way?
BOLD PREDICTION BONUS POINTS: I'm going to go a step farther here, for bonus points of course, and add one more tiny little detail. Not only will Garrett's Thanksgiving heroics be drilled into your brain, but there will also be at least four mentions that he was the first to rock the new "Color Rush" jerseys. How do ya like me now?!
Lucky Whitehead Will Return A Kickoff For A Touchdown
The Cowboys have been pretty fortunate with how the NFC East has played out this season. They've caught some breaks, and they're right in the middle of the race at Thanksgiving... a shocking thing for a 3-7 team.
As fortunate as they've been - they're about to get Lucky.
The last time that Lucky Whitehead had the chance to bring one out of the endzone, three weeks ago against the Eagles, he took it 79 yards. On Thanksgiving Lucky is going to hit the full hundred.
The breaks have gone completely in the opposite direction that we would have liked over the last two months. I'm not saying that we should root for or depend on breaks... I'm saying that we're going to make them go our way.
Everyone knows that winning all three phases (Offense, Defense, and Special Teams) is essential in an NFL game. The Cowboys are going to get a big play from Lucky #13 as a special appetizer for the Thanksgiving Feast they'll have after the game.
Lucky Whitehead scores his first touchdown on Thanksgiving Day against the undefeated Carolina Panthers.
Sounds awesome, doesn't it?!
The Dallas Cowboys Defense Will Hold The Panthers Under 20 Points
The Carolina Panthers have scored at least 20 points in every single game this season, but I don't call these bold predictions for nothing... I'm not here to punt.
Cam Newton and Co. have been on all kinds of offensive fire this season. Just last week Superman threw for five touchdowns. What on earth am I thinking here?!
I'm thinking that the Dallas Cowboys have held three out of their last four opponents to 14 points or less and that they're allowing 22.8 points per game across the whole season.
I've also got this thing called a brain that's telling me Tony Romo is here, draining the clock like some Steph Curry 3s, and that the Kraken is about to be released against his former team.
Greg Hardy will face the Carolina Panthers for the first time, and he won't be alone. DeMarcus Lawrence, Tyrone Crawford, Jeremy Mincey, and Jack Crawford were all hanging out near Ryan Tannehill last week. Cam Newton is the new meeting spot.
This defense is going to stifle the Panthers in a way that they haven't been all season. Toss in the fact that the Panthers are going off of one true day of practice this week and I'm even more on board.
I hope you enjoyed life at 20 and above, Carolina. The ride is over.
Jason Witten Will Channel His Color Rush Poster For His 1,000th Career Reception
I was talking to my Dad the other night about just how incredible Jason Witten is... and how we don't fully appreciate it.
This dude is so freaking amazing that it's actually become boring.
"Oh Witten caught 10 passes?" No big deal. "Jason hauled in two touchdowns?" Seen it before. Hey, but remember that time he ran without his helmet! That was awesome!
Jason Witten is INCREDIBLE. He is currently sitting on 994 career receptions. These are the players in front of him:
That's it. Aside from those ten gentleman there is nobody, in the history of professional football, that has caught more passes than Jason Witten. Wow.
Six receptions is usually a mediocre day at the office for Jason, but on Thanksgiving it's going to be spectacular. Witten is going to re-create the pose he's got going on in the "Color Rush" poster with his 1,000th career reception that's reeled in for a touchdown! Huzzah!
Tony Romo Will Turn To Thanksgiving Day 2006 And Throw 5 Touchdowns
You already know how Romo took care of business against the undefeated Colts in 2006. What you might have forgotten was that one week later, on Thanksgiving, he torched the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the tune of five touchdown passes (so basically what the Buccaneers did to the Eagles last week).
Romo was just entering our lives when he hit the cinco mark on Thanksgiving Day 2006. He's just re-entering our lives these days as we've got one game with him under our belts in the last two months.
Wouldn't it just be the coolest thing ever if he did it again? Against the 10-0 Panthers?
It's happening! Romo's tossing enough for the thumb against the vaunted defense of the Panthers.
Respect. The. Romo.
Sean’s Scout: WR Deonte Thompson A Vertical Threat for Dallas Cowboys
Finally addressing their underwhelming cast of wide receivers, the Dallas Cowboys signed journeyman Deonte Thompson yesterday. The seventh-year pro spent 2017 with both the Chicago Bears and Buffalo Bills, hauling in 38 passes for 555 yards and two touchdowns.
Thompson was undrafted in 2012 out of Florida, making both the Cowboys' free agent signings to date former UDFAs. The Cowboys added LB Joe Thomas earlier in the week, who you can learn more about in Sean's Scout as well.
In desperate need of speed and play making ability on the outside, here is a look at what WR Deonte Thompson can bring to the Dallas Cowboys.
WR Deonte Thompson: Strengths
Check out this video on Streamable using your phone, tablet or desktop.
Deonte Thompson plays with a great understanding of his own frame, using his length to give defensive backs problems up the field. Not a true "burner", Thompson takes some time to accelerate down the field, but can separate vertically.
Thompson runs smooth routes, using his long strides to get on DBs in a hurry. Once in position to free himself at the stem of a route, Thompson showed the ability to consistently turn his hips and complete a number of underneath and deep routes at a high level.
Check out this video on Streamable using your phone, tablet or desktop.
Deonte Thompson may not win on many throws "above the rim", but he is above average at the catch point securing passes with his strong hands.
Snagging the ball outside of his frame is not much of an issue for Thompson, who makes the most of his run-after-the-catch opportunities by effortlessly receiving the ball in stride.
At this stage of his career, Thompson may not be an every down player, but this is a player the Cowboys can absolutely find a way to get involved in their sputtering passing offense next season - at the very least replacing the role of FA WR Brice Butler.
WR Deonte Thompson: Weaknesses
Deonte Thompson should not be expected to go over the top on many defenses for the Cowboys in 2018. While the traits are there to flash as that sort of player, Thompson simply is not at his best trying to track down deep vertical passes.
When Thompson does not create separation on his initial burst up the field, there was a tendency for him to get shoved around at the catch point. Still coming up with his fair share of passes, the degree of difficulty on these catches was often increased by his inability to truly play through contact.
This is not a player with a powerful lower body, relying on upper body flex and foot speed to free himself and create plays in space. Overall balance is a strength for Thompson, but he rarely is able to break tackles or move defenders as a blocker in the running game.
WR Deonte Thompson: Summary
Check out this video on Streamable using your phone, tablet or desktop.
The Cowboys should know what they are getting in Deonte Thompson, who has not had the benefit of great quarterback play in recent seasons. The hope in Dallas is that a number of receivers on the bottom of the depth chart can stand out this summer to make the team out of a crowded room.
This group of Ryan Switzer, Lance Lenoir, Noah Brown, and KD Cannon will now include Deonte Thompson - who should have the edge over most of these names.
Thompson won't be the difference in the Cowboys' offense having a bounce back season in 2018, but his raw athleticism and effortless ability to serve as a deep threat could surely make an impact in Dak Prescott's progression.
Using Win Probabilities To Evaluate Decision Making: Cowboys Kick Vs. Raiders
The Philadelphia Eagles have surpassed the Dallas Cowboys in more ways than one, but on Super Bowl Sunday, their willingness to "be aggressive" and "take chances" shined through the most. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson was congratulated by the masses for not coaching scared, and instead going for it on key fourth downs and even attempting trick plays.
When you really evaluate those decisions, however, they shouldn't even be thought of as "risky." If anything, they were simply the obvious call.
Over the last few months I have been working with win probability models, looking to validate and refine those available to the public. I can't share too much about the work as of yet (there will hopefully be a published article in the future), but the work is certainly promising.
What I can say is this. Dennis Lock and Dan Nettleton worked to utilize random forests to estimate win probabilities before each play in an NFL game. These "forests" are similar to decision tree machine learning, cycling through random trees of past data to predict future outcomes.
Brian Burke has been utilizing his model for a while now, and Pro Football Reference has a simple, yet effective model as well. For my project, I have been working to find the "best" ways to estimate those win probabilities in order to inform decision making by head coaches and coordinators.
If you aren't utilizing analytics correctly in today's NFL, you're falling behind. And if you aren't willing to take calculated risks based off of what these numbers say and mean, you are really falling behind.
How does this all relate to the Cowboys?
Well, Cowboys Nation has been pretty consistent in their main criticism of head coach Jason Garrett: he's too conservative. They say he coaches scared, and they believe he punts the ball away too often between the 40's. Numbers accumulated by writers such as Bob Sturm and Marcus Mosher back up these claims, but I wanted to examine Garrett's decision making through the win probability lens.
I took to Twitter to ask the fan base for specific scenarios in which they felt Garrett was too conservative. Then, I ran these situations through the win probability model to determine how these decisions affected the outcomes.
Over a series of posts I will detail what the model says about the Cowboys' decision making in these key moments. First, we go back to December of last season where the Cowboys had their season on the line in Oakland.
Cowboys at Raiders, 2017
One instance which was consistently brought up was ironically from a Cowboys win. Yes, a win!
The Raiders had played the Cowboys close all game long, and with their season on the line Dallas was in position to put those pesky Raiders away. Tied at 17 they entered a fourth and goal situation at the Raiders' 1 yard line. The Cowboys decided to kick the field goal and grab a 20-17 lead. While Dallas did hang on to win, this was only because of a miraculous play by Jeff Heath which resulted in a fumble and a touchback.
Many of the fans who tweeted at me seem to think the Cowboys should have went for the touchdown on fourth down, rather than take their three points. But what does the model say?
Prior to the fourth down play, the Cowboys had about an 85% chance to win the game. After kicking the field goal and kicking the ball away to Oakland, that probability went down to just above 80%. Had the Cowboys gone for it and been stuffed at the Raiders' 1 yard line, that probability would have dropped all the way to just over 57%.
But the model does believe that Garrett made the right decision. Of course, had Dallas scored a touchdown, the game would've virtually been over, but the variance in probabilities suggests that kicking the field goal and taking the sure points was a good move.
Next week, I explain where Jason Garrett and company may have gone wrong during a key 4th down decision against the Los Angeles Rams. If you have any suggestions for plays/situations you'd like evaluated, please comment below!
Cowboys en Español: Nuevas Contrataciones, ¿Podría Ser Allen Hurns la Siguiente?
La agencia libre de los Dallas Cowboys comenzó un poco tarde, siendo el último equipo en toda la liga de la NFL en realizar una contratación este offseason. Ahora, con algunas caras nuevas en el equipo, comienzan las preguntas inevitables. ¿Qué jugadores tendrán un impacto y qué jugadores serán una contratación irrelevante?
Sólo el tiempo lo dirá. Las piezas que añadieron los Cowboys no son agentes libres de gran renombre pero podrían llegar a tener algún impacto en el 2018. Sin embargo, no todas las adquisiciones de Dallas han sido por medio de la agencia libre.
Hace unos días, los Raiders y los Cowboys acordaron un trade por el fullback Jamize Olawale. Días después de perder a Keith Smith (quien fue contratado por... los Raiders), Dallas no quiso echarse todavía otra necesidad encima, así que solucionó rápidamente su hueco en la posición que le abrirá camino a Ezekiel Elliott.
Además de enviar a Olawale a los Cowboys, los Raiders consiguieron una selección de quinta ronda de parte de Dallas y ellos entregaron su sexta ronda. En otras palabras, los Cowboys sólo renunciaron 19 turnos en las rondas tardías del Draft por un fullback que será de ayuda constante para esta ofensiva.
A pesar de ser tres años más grande que Keith Smith, Olawale le brinda a los Cowboys potencial para participar en el juego aéreo así como en el terrestre.
Por la agencia libre, los Cowboys obtuvieron ayuda ofensiva y defensiva.
Joe Thomas, (no, no el que todos conocemos como uno de los mejores tackles de la historia) el linebacker que viene de los Green Bay Packers, usará la estrella este 2018. Mi compañero y escritor de Staff Sean Martin escribió una excelente pieza analizando a detalle al nuevo defensivo.
Thomas definitivamente no será un titular, pero sin duda ayudará a un grupo de equipos especiales que necesitan bastante apoyo esta temporada. Además, es un linebacker rápido y atlético que podrá brillar como un jugador de rotación en una defensiva que incluye a Sean Lee y a Jaylon Smith.
Esta contratación no hace que los Cowboys dejen de tener una gran necesidad por un LB, pero da una profundidad que urgía a la posición.
El último movimiento y quizá el más discutido por los aficionados de los Cowboys es la adquisición de Deonte Thompson. Un receptor abierto que ha batallado para conseguir una casa en la NFL llega a un equipo que cuenta con nombres como Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams y Cole Beasley, pero que aún necesita mucho más producción.
¿Acaso la adición de Thompson al roster hace que WR deje de ser una necesidad para el equipo de los Cowboys? Claro que no, pero añade un talento que quizá pueda ayudar al equipo en ciertos aspectos.
Thompson es un jugador muy rápido, lo cual es algo que esta ofensiva necesita para abrir el campo un poco más. Un corredor de rutas bastante sólido con manos seguras. Thompson viene probablemente a ser una versión mejorada de Brice Butler por $2.5M.
Quizá fue un error de parte de la administración garantizarle un millón de su contrato. ¿Por qué garantizarle dinero a un jugador que ni siquiera debería tener un lugar asegurado en el equipo? Sin embargo, Thompson parece ser un contribuidor a la ofensiva.
Pero no fue el WR en la agencia libre del que se ha hablado esta semana en el mundo de los Dallas Cowboys. De hecho, aún después de firmar su contrato, no es el más discutido entre los aficionados.
Allen Hurns, receptor que fue cortado de Jacksonville, es un jugador que podría llegar a hacer un impacto inmediato en la ofensiva de Dak Prescott y proveerle al QB un potencial mejor amigo. A pesar de que muchos esperarían que conseguir a Hurns significaría decirle adiós a Dez Bryant, la verdad es que no sería necesario.
Hurns podría tomar el rol que Terrance Williams posee ahora como receptor "Z" y llevar a esta ofensiva a otro nivel. Todd Archer de ESPN reportó que la reciente adquisición de Deonte Thompson no significa que la posibilidad de ver a Hurns usando la estrella ha acabado.
Todos queremos ver acción en la agencia libre, aunque a veces lo sensato sea ser conservadores. Así como muchos aficionados de los Cowboys se quejan de la falta de movimientos, muchos aficionados de los Steelers y los Patriots agradecen que sus equipos tengan esta filosofía de no gastar mucho en agencia libre.
La diferencia son los resultados en el campo.
Sin embargo, Allen Hurns definitivamente parece como una opción muy viable para los Cowboys, y una adición que simplemente tendría mucho sentido. Sólo queda esperar si lograrán firmarlo o si un equipo (como los Jets, quienes han mostrado mucho interés y tienen bastante espacio en el tope salarial) logra convencerlo de no regresar a Dallas.
Por ahora, esperamos. Quizá hasta que los Cowboys firmen a alguien más. O quizá hasta la llegada del NFL Draft.
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