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Should We Expect Regression From 2017 Dallas Cowboys?

Kevin Brady

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Cowboys 2017 Training Camp Dates and Location Announced 1

My life of sports fandom has made me a bit of a pessimist. I'll admit to that.

Outside of the Dallas Cowboys, I am a die hard fan of the New York Mets in baseball and the New York Knicks in basketball. Neither of which have given me much to be excited about during my years on this earth.

Typically, when one of my teams has a successful year, the next year ends in some brutal heartbreak. The last time the Cowboys had a somewhat-successful season (prior to 2016), they followed it up with injury-riddled heartbreak during 2015.

This very well could be the root cause for why I have been pumping the brakes a bit on the 2017 Dallas Cowboys hype over the last several weeks. Or, I could actually have some valid points.

I'll let you guys be the judge of that.

There has to be some regression, right?

The Dallas Cowboys offense maintained most of its key pieces from a year ago, and even added a dynamic threat in rookie wide out Ryan Swizter. But even as great as we expect them to be, it is reasonable to expect some regression from last season, right?

Dak Prescott was an absolute phenomenon in 2016, and while I expect him to be a great quarterback in this league for years to come, we do often see second year quarterbacks struggle coming out of the gate.

If the Cowboys are without running back Ezekiel Elliott, whether for suspension or some other reason, those first couple of games might spell trouble for the Dallas Cowboys. The first three defenses they face are all fierce units. Including the New York Giants, who defeated the Cowboys twice just last season.

The Cowboys will also be replacing two starters on the offensive line from 2016 with inexperienced players. While I have faith those holes will be filled, it is still fair to ask some questions.

Still, the Cowboys have three of the best offensive linemen in football, an elite receiving corps, the league's leading rusher, and an excellent young quarterback. They should be fine on that side of the ball.

What will the Cowboys be defensively?

This is a crucial question for the 2017 season. Despite losing key contributors to their defense from last season, I do think the Cowboys re-loaded for the future.

Drafting players like Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis, and Xavier Woods, Dallas now has a versatile and athletic young secondary to build their defense around. Plus, they are (in all likelihood) adding the best linebacker prospect from the 2016 NFL Draft in Jaylon Smith to their starting front-seven.

So, things should be looking up.

Despite all of this good news for the Cowboys defense, it will still be an incredibly inexperienced unit across the board. Youth can be an advantage in a lot of respects, but it also could produce some uncomfortable growing pains throughout the season.

There's only one way to know what will happen though, and that's to play the games.

Could close games bring different outcomes this time around?

This right here is my main reason of concern.

In 2016, the Cowboys were 7-2 in "close games," defined as decided by one score (7 or less points). On top of that, seven of their thirteen wins came against teams which finished at .500 or under.

With the schedule they will face this year, they will be less likely to play as many as seven .500 or less teams. Plus, close games are rarely sustainable in the NFL. Even just anecdotally, you can remember that many of those close games could have gone either way.

If one call or play went differently in Minnesota, the Cowboys would have lost that game. If Carson Wentz didn't falter down the stretch on Sunday Night Football, the Cowboys probably would have lost that game as well.

Typically, teams with this great of a record in close games suffer some regression to the mean the very next season. This could very well explain why many, including Vegas, have the Cowboys at 9 or 10 wins in 2017 instead of 12 or 13.

With all of this being said, I still expect the Cowboys to either win, or at least challenge for, the NFC East crown this season. I expect them to get to 10 wins, and potentially host a playoff game.

This roster is too good for any drastic regression in my opinion, and they are the best/most talented team in the division.

Still, I wonder if as a fan base we should back off the Super Bowl hype train we seem to currently be on. But when I look around the rest of the conference, I don't see a team the Cowboys can't beat.

So, at least for now, keep on riding the hype train. It's more fun that way.



Die-hard Cowboys fan from the Northeast, so you know I am here to defend the 'boys whenever necessary. Began writing for a WordPress Cowboys Blog, and have been with ITS since 2016.

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1 Comment
  • John Williams

    Can’t argue with any of this.

    They were very good in close games last year and they are going to be relying on a lot of young faces on defense. While that could be a good thing, there will also be some growing pains.

    I think they will be good and will win the NFC East, but I think that may come with 10 wins instead of 13.

Star Blog

Was Sunday A “Wake Up Call,” Or Were Cowboys Exposed?

Kevin Brady

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Was Sunday A "Wake Up Call," Or A Flashback To Reality?

Entering last Sunday's game in Indianapolis, the Dallas Cowboys were riding high. Having won five straight games, including key victories over the top seeded Saints and division rival Eagles, everything seemed to be breaking right for the Cowboys heading into the home stretch.

Their defense was playing like one of the best in football, and after firing Paul Alexander and trading for Amari Cooper their offense was clicking just as they'd hoped. They needed (and still need) just one win to officially close out the division and clinch a home playoff game in January.

Instead, the Cowboys got absolutely demolished by the Indianapolis Colts. Of course, there's no shame in losing a road game to an 8-6 team in the NFL, but the way in which they lost certainly deserves some shame. Not even the 23-0 score can encapsulate the complete butt-kicking Dallas received at the hands of the Colts, and it was the type of loss that can sometimes make you question the blueprint.

The Cowboys, however, are not looking at it that way. Multiple leaders in the locker room have spoke this week about how they "needed" to lose like that. Running back Ezekiel Elliott called the loss embarrassing, but also said it is better for Dallas in the "grand scheme of the season."

Clearly, the leaders and coaches are calling the putrid performance a wake up call, something that will galvanize them and reset their win streak heading into the postseason. But is this really the case, or was the shutout defeat more of a sign of things to come?

Obviously it's too early to say for sure, but I do think it can be a little bit of both.

No, the Cowboys are not the class of the NFC, despite beating what can be called the best team in the same conference a couple weeks ago. There probably will prove to be some drop-off from the top 3 seeds in the conference and the Cowboys, if for no other reason than Dallas will have to go on the road to play those teams in the playoffs. It's really hard to win on the road in the NFL, especially with the increased wackiness of 2018.

The Cowboys offense is far from perfect or prolific, though if clicking they now have the skill talent to drop 30+ points any given Sunday. Their defense is talented, has a high ceiling, but is still very young and inexperienced. Though they've played elite level games before, they've also had some stinkers against the Colts and Titans during the same season.

All of this can be true. The Cowboys can be a team deserving of the playoffs, a team we should not be panicking over, but still a very flawed football team. They can be a team that if "hot" could make a run through the postseason, but also will have to answer some tough questions about coaches and players during the next two offseasons.

After all, who isn't greatly flawed in today's NFL? Hell, we just saw the beloved Rams lose two straight games.



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Star Blog

Is it Too Late For Dallas to Fire OC Scott Linehan?

Brian Martin

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Scott Linehan

Grab your pitchforks and your torches, it's time to run the Dallas Cowboys Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan out of town. His playcalling has been absolutely atrocious season and it's time for him to hit the road, even if there are only two regular-season games left on the schedule.

It's completely unorthodox for an NFL team to fire an offensive coordinator this late in the season, but just last week we saw the Minnesota Vikings do just that when they parted ways with John DeFilippo. It was definitely a bold move to make considering the Vikings are still in playoff contention, but it was something they believed was in the best interest of their team.

I believe if the Dallas Cowboys want to do what's best for their team right now and not later, then they should go ahead and cut ties with Scott Linehan. His predictability and un-creativeness as a play caller is holding back a talented offense, which is hurting the overall team as a result. He's been given every opportunity to turn things around, but enough is enough.

I'd personally be on board with Jason Garrett taking over the playcalling duties. He has the experience and held the position with the Cowboys from 2007 until Linehan was hired. I'd even consider giving Kellen Moore a shot as the OC. He knows the system and has worked closely with Quarterback Dak Prescott. Regardless, the Cowboys need to find some way to increase their offensive productivity.

Kellen Moore

Dallas Cowboys QB Coach Kellen Moore

Right now the Cowboys offense is the 26th scoring offense in the NFL and are averaging just 19.7 points per game. To make matters worse they are the 31st ranked Red Zone offense in the league. I don't know about you, but I think that is completely unacceptable with the talent they have on the offensive side of the ball.

Firing Linehan has been a long time coming. The Cowboys flirted with the idea earlier this season during the bye week and should've pulled the trigger then, but for some reason or another decided to let him stick around. They are definitely still paying for that mistake now.

The Cowboys mistake not to replace Linehan could mean yet another early exit in the playoffs, something we have unfortunately become accustomed to. Scoring just 19 points a game isn't going to get them very far, which is truly unfortunate considering the talent they've acquired this season.

Unfortunately, as much as we would love to see Scott Linehan tarred and feathered and run out of town, I just don't see the Cowboys doing that before their season is officially over. But, in no way should he be allowed to retain his position beyond this season. He clearly isn't the answer any longer.

Do you think the Dallas Cowboys should fire Scott Linehan?



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Star Blog

Despite Embarrassing Showing, Health Remains Biggest Cowboys Concern

Kevin Brady

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Zack Martin

What is it about the AFC South with these Dallas Cowboys?

Dallas' five game winning streak came to a close on Sunday, as they got straight-up embarrassed by the now 8-6 Indianapolis Colts on the road. The loss was the first since the Cowboys were embarrassed by a different AFC South competitor, the Tennessee Titans, on Monday night football earlier this season.

Though the final was 23-0, and not a single phase (or really even a single player) showed much fight or promise, the biggest concern I have for the Cowboys moving forward didn't change because of the putrid performance. It didn't change because the defense was gashed play after play or the offense failed to finish a single drive. And it didn't even change because both the Redskins and Eagles secured season-saving victories on the same day Dallas was dismantled.

The biggest concern is still their health, particularly across the offensive line.

That was not a playoff caliber interior offensive line the Cowboys put out their on Sunday. Not even close.

With their backup center in Joe Looney, backup guard in Connor Williams, and the very last interior offensive linemen on their roster in Adam Redmond playing for basically the entire game, this offense never had a chance. Dak Prescott wasn't any more inaccurate or indecisive than normal, but all those who like to scream "step up in the pocket" whenever he is sacked did not seem to have an argument this week.

There often was no pocket to step into, as those interior three, specifically Looney and Redmond, failed to provide much protection or confidence for Prescott at all. Joe Looney has actually been rather solid this season, but Sunday felt like one of his worst games of the entire year.

The Cowboys absolutely need Zack Martin to get healthy if they are to make any noise whatsoever in the postseason. At the very least, the need Xavier Su'a-Filo to come back and replace Redmond, and regain the form he displayed during his debut against the Eagles back in November.

Prescott already has issues with his pocket presence and footwork when pressured, so throwing three backup-level linemen right in front of him is not a recipe for success for the Cowboys.

I'm not jumping out of the window over this loss, and I don't think any of you should be either. Dallas had won three straight incredibly emotional and important home games to extend, save, and solidify their season respectively before this loss. They had also just about clinched the NFC East a week ago with their win over Philadelphia, and they played like a team that was due a flat performance

A letdown loss on the road, against a good team I might add, is not the end of the world. The bigger issue here is their health, because if Martin can return to anchor this offensive line, the offense should look a whole lot better than they did against Indianapolis.

It's time to move on from Sunday, go beat Tampa Bay, officially clinch the division, and get ready for Wild Card Weekend.



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