2026 NFL Rookie Prediction: Stars, Steals, and Busts

The 2026 NFL Draft is over, and I’m planting my rookie flags early. Every first-round pick gets sold as the answer, every late-round quarterback becomes somebody’s favorite steal, and I’m no different.

When I look at talent, landing spots, early opportunities and pressure, a few rookies stand out a little more than the others. Some look like they’re ready to become stars, some look like steals, and a few carry real bust risk.

Rookie Star I Trust Most on Offense: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals

I’ll start with Jerimiyah Love because his path to production may be easier than others, and he could run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Arizona took him No.3 overall, and a team does not take a running back that high unless they plan on feeding him the rock. Jeremiyah Love was one of the biggest statement picks of the draft.

I like it because Love gives the Cardinals a weapon. He can run between the tackles, hit explosive plays, and help in the running game. I’ve always believed he was one of two who are the most complete players in the draft.

Projected stats: 275 carries, 1,255 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, 45 catches, 385 receiving yards, and 3 receiving TDs.

Honorable mention: Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans

I think Tate could push for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award if Tennessee gives him true WR1 volume in the passing attack.

Projected stats: 74 catches, 1,010 receiving yards, 8 TDs.

Rookie Star I Trust Most on Defense: David Bailey, EDGE, New York Jets

On the defensive side of the ball, I’m going with David Bailey.

Defensive Rookie of the Year usually comes down to splash plays, and sacks are the easiest splash plays to come by.

The Jets took Bailey No.2 overall with the hopes his sack numbers will be in the double digits. Being the No.2 pick should make him the early favorite for most to win the award, but several good defensive players were taken in the top part of the draft.

Projected stats: 54 tackles, 12 sacks, 16 tackles for a loss, and 3 forced fumbles.

Honorable mention: Arvell Reese, EDGE/LB, New York Giants

Reese may be more versatile, but Bailey has the cleaner path, and less competition, to big sack numbers.

Projected stats: 78 tackles, 7 sacks, 12 tackles for a loss, 2 forced fumbles.

Rookie I Believe in Long Term: Caleb Downs, S, Dallas Cowboys

This is my favorite pick of the article, and not just because I am a Cowboys fan.

Downs may not win a rookie award because safeties don’t always get the same love as sack artists, but long term, I think he could be one of the best players in this class. Along with Jeremiyah Love, to me, Caleb Downs is the most complete player from the NFL Draft.

Dallas needed a defender who could do more than line up in one spot and Caleb Downs gives them that option. He can play safety, nickel, and near the box.

The Cowboys traded up to No. 11 for Downs, and his versatility should fit what Dallas wants to do defensively.

Projected stats: 92 tackles, 3 interceptions, 8 pass breakups, 2 forced fumbles

Honorable mention: Sonny Styles, LB, Washington Commanders

Sonny Styles has the size, speed, and intelligence to become a defensive centerpiece for a defensive-minded head coach.

Projected stats: 105 tackles, 3 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, 1 interception.

Rookie Steal I Am Buying: Cade Klubnik, QB, New York Jets

I like Cade Klubnik as the rookie steal of this draft because of the value. Any team that gets a quarterback with developmental upside in the fourth round, I pay attention.

What’s nice is Klubnik doesn’t have to start right away for this pick to matter. If he becomes a quality backup, it’s useful, but if he becomes a starter, he becomes one of the best draft picks in the draft.

Projected stats: 28 completions, 310 passing yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs.

Honorable mention: D’Angelo Ponds, CD, New York Jets

Starting caliber corners are hard to find outside of Round 1, and I like Ponds as a starter on the Jets defense.

Projected state: 58 tackles, 2 interceptions, 10 pass breakups

Rookie Bust I Am Worried About: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Las Vegas Raiders

I’m going with Fernando Mendoza here because quarterback is the easiest position to overhype and the hardest position to get right.

https://twitter.com/FoxSportsRadio/status/2029332747563745718?s=20

The Raiders took Mendoza with the hope that he can become their answer at quarterback, and he will get that chance as soon as he enters the team facility.

Las Vegas needs stability, and rookie quarterbacks do not always get the patience they need when a fan base wants something to believe in.

Projected stats: 285 completions, 3,150 passing yards, 18 TDs, 17 INTs, 210 rushing yards, and 2 rushing TDs.

Honorable mention: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bain has the talent to make an impact, but rookie first-round edge rushers need double-digit sacks to be considered an impact player. I don’t know if Rueben Bain Jr. has that in him in his first year.

Projected stats: 42 tackles, 5 sacks, 8 tackles for a loss, and 1 forced fumble.