A lot has been made of the upcoming matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional round of the playoffs, and it’s got me thinking about the tangibles for each defense.
I’m of the mind that numbers matter in any contest. To quote Winston Churchill, “The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward.” While I doubt the intended significance toward such a triviality as football, it does have a very relevant meaning. And that’s why we keep stats—to look back and see what has been done.
I like statistics because I can look back and see what was done in order to better gauge what will be done.
I’m also of the mindset that a particular stat—the QB rating—is somewhat useless when it comes to gauging a quarterback’s play. It has become something we look at often to see how a QB did in a game, but it being high or low has never been correlated directly with winning football games.
For instance, look at week 13 between the Cowboys and Giants. The Giants won the game but Tony Romo had a QB rating of 112.1.
For those that do not know, the QB rating is calculated based on completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. It’s essentially a measure of efficiency and nothing more.
But as I stated, I believe it to be rather useless for determining a quarterback’s level of play. It is, however, a viable stat when trying to figure out what a defense can do and has done.
Consider my logic—a few good ways of labeling a defense successful is to look at how many yards per game they allow, how many third down conversions, how many yards per play they give up, how many touchdowns they allow, and how many interceptions they take. Most of which is factored into a QB rating calculation.
So I like to look at a teams schedule and see what kind of QB ratings they’ve allowed opposing quarterbacks to have. The truth is that while an efficient QB is great, e.g., Brett Favre only throwing for seven interceptions this season, I’d much rather have an effective QB. And that’s what this method is based on.
In the 2009 season the Vikings defense has allowed an average opposing QB rating of 90.8. That’s six games of 16 allowing a QB rating of over 100.
The Cowboys, in contrast, have allowed an average opposing rating of 82.8. That’s only two games of 17, including the wild card round, in which they allowed a rating over 100.
Both defenses are highly ranked against the run (Vikings 2nd, Cowboys 4th ). Both offenses rank well running the ball (Vikings 13th, Cowboys 7th).
It basically shows me that the Vikings are going to be in a tough spot trying to run against Dallas more so than Dallas will be stuffed by Minnesota. It’s a fair conclusion even considering that Adrian Peterson is a future Hall of Fame running back.
Everyone likes to say how versatile he is and there’s been references made that the Cowboys have to have three backs to equal what Minnesota has in just one, but it’s overlooked what impact that really has on the players.
Sure, Peterson is allowed to find a rhythm and ride it out being the primary back and getting 20+ carries a game, but that kind of running takes its toll. By the end of a game he’s tired. Even if he’s in a rhythm, he’s worn down from either running up and down the field, or fighting a tough defense for every yard. He does lead the league in no gain and negative yard runs this year.
Meanwhile the Cowboys have a better ranked rushing attack. Perhaps lending credit to the fact they have three guys who stay fresher during the course of a game.
What does it mean? The Vikings are going to have to rely on Brett Favre long before the Cowboys will be relying on Tony Romo. And that is when Romo is at his best—as a game manager, as opposed to a game winner.
History has shown that Favre struggles against Dallas anyway. History has shown that the Vikings struggle in home playoff games against Dallas. History has shown that teams on a late season winning streak go farther than teams wrapping up regulation under .500. The Cowboys went 3-0 the final three games of the season while the Vikings only went 1-2.
And since I predict the game will come down to how the quarterbacks play I’ll let you know how each defense has done.
Minnesota allows a higher QB rating, completion percentage, and average yards per completion. The Cowboys’ defense has one less sack over an extra game, and one less interception over an extra game.
It’s a game of numbers that these men play, and the numbers show that the Vikings will have their work cut out for them.
And finally, consider this—the Vikings are 8-0 at home this year and definitely have an advantage at home. Obviously they play better at home, but the Cowboys, this year, have played better on the road.
Report: Raiders Sign Former Cowboys LB Kyle Wilber
A Free Agency period filled with departures continued for the Dallas Cowboys today, as the Oakland Raiders have reportedly signed the now-former Cowboys LB Kyle Wilber.
The Raiders have signed LB Kyle Wilber: https://t.co/TaC6cqjval
Wilber has been with the Cowboys since 2012, and has played in all 16 games four of the past five seasons. Most of his time has come on special teams, but he did provide solid linebacker depth for the Cowboys since joining the team.
Dallas has now lost both Wilber and Anthony Hitchens, depleting their linebacker depth even further over the last couple weeks.
The Raiders have now signed two key special teams contributors for the Cowboys in Keith Smith and Kyle Wilber this offseason. Hopefully Dallas can replace these types of "replacement level" players throughout the rest of the offseason, especially during the NFL Draft.
Report: Cowboys Officially Release CB Orlando Scandrick
After requesting his release from the team just a few days ago, Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick has gotten his wish. According to ESPN's Josina Anderson, Scandrick has officially been cut by the Dallas Cowboys.
I'm told the #Cowboys have informed CB Orlando Scandrick he will be released, per source.
This move will reportedly save the Cowboys roughly $1.4M against the salary cap, as we hope they finally look to make some moves during the Free Agency period.
Scandrick's release comes after an offseason in which the Cowboys totally overhauled the back end of their defense, specifically their cornerbacks. With the emergence of young, promising players such as Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis, and the health issues of the aging Scandrick, the move makes a lot of sense.
In fact, after the Cowboys drafted Awuzie in the second round of last year's draft it was rumored the Cowboys were looking to move Scandrick for extra draft picks. Instead, one year later, they have cut him to save some cap room.
Orlando Scandrick should have a market to find a new team elsewhere, but his time in Dallas has now come to a close.
Dallas Cowboys Have Missing Piece at Offensive Line
There are a lot of positions being talked about right now for the Dallas Cowboys. Upgrades are needed at several spots, but one critical position needs even more than that. Left guard is completely unmanned, and that could be a big problem for the 2018 offensive line if it's not addressed soon.
Last year's starter, Jonathan Cooper, is currently an unrestricted free agent. So are backups Joe Looney and Byron Bell.
Right now, Chaz Green is the only other non-starter under contract who has any NFL experience at left guard. Nobody wants to see him on the field next year.
Dez Bryant may be a big topic but at least he's under contract. The same goes for safety, where we at least have options to turn to if free agency or the draft don't yield anything.
Left guard, though? The cupboard is bare.
One option could be to move La'el Collins back to guard, where many feel he has the most upside, and then find a new right tackle. But that would be changing two positions to fill one hole, and Collins was playing well at tackle by the end of the year.
And obviously, we don't want to see Chaz Green playing that spot either. Or any spot. Ever.
No, at this point it makes sense for Dallas to leave Collins where he is and either sign or draft a starting LG. The question is how much do they want to invest?
The Cowboys are already shelling out big bucks to Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, and Zack Martin. Even Collins counts about $7 million against the cap. They have three first-round picks already tied up in the offensive line.
Some thought veteran free agent Josh Sitton would be a nice option, but he got picked up by the Dolphins today for about $8-9 million per year. That's more than Dallas can afford given their limited cap space and other needs.
No, the LG in 2018 is going to need to be a salary cap bargain. That means either re-signing Jonathan Cooper or Joe Looney on the cheap, or perhaps paying a rookie salary to a high draft pick.
Last year's 19th overall pick, O.J. Howard, counted just $2 million against the Bucs' salary cap in 2017.
There are some older veterans who could be cheap band-aid options, such as Matt Slauson or Evan Smith. But you don't get very far down some lists of available guards before you see Jonathan Cooper's name, and continuity is always a plus.
The point here is don't expect any big move, even with the enormity of the need. Dallas will likely reach an agreement with Cooper after he's tested the free agent waters a bit, assuming nobody else scoops him up.
If not, the need at left guard will become increasingly dire the further we get into the offseason.
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