Week 13: The final opportunity to clinch a playoff berth for your fantasy football team. At least, I hope this is true for you and you are not in a league that utilizes week 17.
I hope this first season of Fantasy Football analysis has been useful for you. I know I have had a good time bringing you some bold predictions here from the Sauce and getting to know some of you through Twitter. Remember, you can follow me @john9williams for Sit/Start and waiver wire advice.
With that, let’s see how we did with The Sauce in week 12.
- Josh McCown – 322 yards, 1 TD, 2 lost fumbles. BURNED
- Todd Gurley – 17 touches, 89 total yards. Mild Sauce
- Wendell Smallwood – 10 touches, 47 yards. BURNED
- Cole Beasley – 5 catches, 56 yards. Mild Sauce
- DeVante Parker – 3 catches, 64 yards. Mild Sauce
Week 12 Weak Sauce
- Kirk Cousins – 449 yards passing, 3 TDs. BURNED
- Lamar Miller – 22 touches, 75 yards. Mild Sauce
- DeMarco Murray – 22 touches, 84 total yards. Mild Sauce
- Golden Tate – 5 catches, 77 yards. Mild Sauce
- Mike Evans – 8 catches, 104 yards, 2 TDs. BURNED
Hot Sauce For Week 13
QB Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills @ Oakland Raiders
Tyrod Taylor is an interesting fantasy football asset to me. I shy away from him because his passing numbers are typically too inconsistent for me to reap the rewards of his good games.
To me he’s a very match-up dependent fantasy quarterback, and if you’re looking for the perfect match-up to put him in, week 13 against the Oakland Raiders is the one to go with.
Taylor and the Bills will go on the road to face an Oakland team that ranks 26th in passing yards allowed, as well as 26th in rushing yards allowed. This sets up to be the kind of match-up which have allowed the Bills to put up some decent numbers.
In week 12 against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that is better than the Raiders, Taylor had a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown and was good for 20.44 standard fantasy points. He will have a good opportunity to match that number this week.
Flavorful Forecast: 190 passing yards, 45 rushing yards, 3 total touchdowns
RB Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers
Over his last nine games, Jordan Howard has posted 90 or more total yards in seven of those games as he has taken over as the lead back in Chicago. Even against a tough New York Giants front seven, Howard was able to average 4.7 yards per carry while totaling 127 yards.
He is the best thing going for the Bears offense with Alshon Jeffrey suspended as well as Jay Cutler and Zach Miller out for the season. Howard will have another big opportunity in week 13 against the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers are still pretty bad on defense, even though they’ve held two of their last four opponents to under 100 yards rushing. This season they’ve allowed teams to rush for more than 170 yards in seven games and three times teams have put up over 240 rushing yards (yikes).
With Chicago’s focus on establishing the run game and utilizing Jordan Howard to catch passes out of the backfield, I expect a big game from Howard.
Flavorful Forecast: 22 touches, 150 total yards, 2 touchdowns.
RB Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints have been surprisingly decent against the running game this year. While they have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns, they’ve allowed the 12th fewest rushing yards and only give up 3.9 yards per carry.
The good news for Theo Riddick is that he doesn’t make his money as a pure runner. Riddick is a Darren Sproles type of running back. He will get 8-10 carries a game, but he really makes his money as a pass catching running back.
In 2016 Riddick has one more receiving yard (356) than he does rushing yards (355). He’s averaging 79 total yards per game this season (nine games played) and has scored five touchdowns.
With New Orleans rekindling their offensive firepower, Detroit is going to have to throw to keep up and this is where Riddick comes in. He sees just under seven targets a game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have double digit targets in what I expect to be the highest scoring game of week 13.
Flavorful Forecast: 17 touches, 130 total yards, 1 touchdown.
WR Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons
Tyreek Hill was amazing on Sunday Night Football. If you didn’t already snatch him up, there is a good chance he will be claimed on the waiver wire this week. In PPR leagues, he will be a must start for me as long as Jeremy Maclin is sidelined.
Over the last three games, Hill has 23 catches for 194 yards. He’s received at least one catch in all but two games this season and has been a dynamic player for the Chiefs.
The Atlanta Falcons continue to be able to score points, and I expect this to be another shootout for the Chiefs. Andy Reid has shown that he wants to get Hill involved every way he can.
Flavorful Forecast: 7 catches, 68 yards, 1 touchdown.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
DeAndre Hopkins… That name has made ears bleed in 2016. In standard fantasy football leagues, many people spent a low first round draft pick on the Houston Texans wide receiver. If you went Zero Running Back, it’s possible that you ended up with Hopkins and Allen Robinson. YUCK!!!
This week has a lot of potential for redemption for Hopkins. The Green Bay Packers secondary has been, for the most part, atrocious. The Packers have given up the 4th most passing touchdowns in 2016. There have only been three games this season where an opposing team didn’t total more than 250 passing yards.
Even Carson Wentz was able to throw for more than 250. If he can do it, so can Brock Osweiler. Fire up DeAndre Hopkins this week and let him lead you to the playoffs.
Flavorful Forecast: Six catches, 90 yards, 1 touchdown.
Weak Sauce For Week 13
QB Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
The Carolina Panthers have been very up and down in the 2016 season. Their defense hasn’t been the same since letting Josh Norman walk in free agency. Another reason is that Cam Newton hasn’t been nearly as efficient as he has been in the past.
His touchdown and completion percentages, as well as his quarterback rating, are at career lows. Hard to say if he is facing a Super Bowl hangover or not, but his offense appears to be pretty much the same, though he has taken a few more hits this season than he has in seasons past.
I wouldn’t want to be him going into Seattle after the Seahawks were embarrassed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 12.
Flavorless Forecast: 225 yards passing, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 20 rush yards
RB Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders vs Buffalo Bills
Latavius Murray has seen a bit of a resurgence since coming back from an injury in week seven. Murray has six touchdowns in the last five games and is averaging 88.2 yards from scrimmage over that same span. Not great, but solid fantasy football numbers when considering he’s in a pass-heavy offense.
Limit your expectations as Murray and the Raiders face a Buffalo Bills defense that is allowing the 4th fewest yards from scrimmage to running backs in 2016. While the Raiders seem to be flying high at the moment, and that may continue in week 13, Murray won’t be the reason why.
Flavorless Forecast: 17 touches, 68 total yards.
RB Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
While Seattle had a rough week 12, as has already been documented, they are still a very good defensive team.
Jonathan Stewart is coming off of a two touchdown game (his second such effort in the last five weeks) against the Oakland Raiders. Stewart, like Cam Newton, is going to be in for a difficult day on Sunday as the Panthers travel to Seattle to face a team in need of a bounce-back performance.
Unless you don’t have any other options this Sunday, Stewart is a sit-able asset to me.
Flavorless Forecast: 16 touches 60 total yards.
WR Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans
In five of his last six games, Jordy Nelson has put up over 90 yards receiving as Aaron Rodgers has finally found a way to get his Pro Bowl receiver the ball.
This week will be a different story. The Houston Texans are actually a pretty good defensive team against the pass. The Texans rank in the top-ten in pass yards allowed, passing touchdowns, and net yards per attempt.
Nelson may still see a lot of targets, but I don’t expect him to surpass the 90 yard total in week 13.
Flavorless Forecast: 5 catches, 70 yards.
WR Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos
The enigma that is Allen Robinson’s 2016 campaign continues.
After three straight games with a touchdown, Robinson faded back into mediocrity against a pretty good Buffalo Bills defense. Robinson saw a season-worst four targets after not seeing fewer than six a game all season.
The matchup doesn’t get any better for him in week 13 as he faces the Denver Broncos.
Despite what Tyreek Hill and the Kansas City Chiefs were able to do, don’t expect it to happen two weeks in a row. The Broncos are too good against the pass (still leading the league) to expect Blake Bortles (who has been awful) to give Allen Robinson much of a chance this week.
Flavorless Forecast: 3 catches, 36 yards.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers – Kaepernick has been on fire since being reinserted into the starting lineup for the 49ers. As a fantasy quarterback he hasn’t finished a day with fewer than 16 fantasy points and has averaged 20+ over his last five games. He is the quarterback Chip Kelly has been looking for since entering the NFL.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – Andy Reid and the K.C. offense has looked for ways to get Hill involved and he has become the primary receiving option since Jeremy Maclin has been out with an injury. In PPR leagues, he is my priority grab this week.
Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears – Someone has to catch the ball in Chicago. Kevin White has been hurt all season. Alshon Jeffrey is suspended, and Cameron Meredith has been very inconsistent. Wilson is a player you can pick up this week and plug him into your WR3 spot or your flex against a really bad San Francisco defense.