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Predicting the Dallas Cowboys’ First Pick via the Team’s 30 Visits

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Narrowing Down Dallas's First Pick Candidates

This is an interesting time on the NFL schedule. We're in that sort of post-free agency purgatory where teams have re-tooled and shuffled players around, but are still looking at the opportunity for major upgrades in the NFL draft. There's a good 6-7 weeks between the start of the new league year and free agency, and the NFL draft. Regarding the Cowboys' strategy on free agency versus the draft, it seems to be fairly consistent over the past five seasons.

Ever since we signed Brandon Carr, we've taken much more of a need-filling approach in free agency to glue up any glaring holes (as well as sign back our own players), in order to put the front office in position to pick best player available at the end of April.

To allow ourselves to do that, however, the Cowboys have to familiarize themselves as much as possible with the prospects of the current year's draft. This comes through various formats: watching tape, attending the NFL Scouting Combine, interviewing players and their former coaches/teammates; the list goes on and on.

Analyzing Dallas' Weight of Pre-Draft Visitors

Another method of familiarization that people seem to get pretty hung up on is the 30 allotted team visits that each franchise is given to bring in prospects, give them a tour of the facilities, introduce them to coaches, administer additional interviews, and so on.

Let's take a look at last year's pre-draft visitors, and follow that list throughout the draft.

2016 Draft Visits:

Predicting Our First Pick Via Dallas's 30 Visits 1

** Information collected from BTB and various other online resources

The first thing you should notice from this chart is that our front office seems to use about half of their visits on prospects in the top 50-60 players of the draft. Last year they used 17 of their 30 visits on players they had rated in the top two rounds. This makes sense given the investment that teams make in the first two rounds.

The next thing you should notice is that only two of our draft picks (three players, including free agent, Rodney Coe) came from the pre-draft visits. This is hugely important, but you have to analyze why to make a proper assumption.

So that's exactly what I did.

Round 1 - This is fairly straight forward. The Cowboys had the top two prospects on the board, both of whom visited Valley Ranch prior to the draft last year. Ultimately, the front office chose to go with the top guy, and we all know how that worked out.

From here, all other pre-draft visit players were selected prior to their next pick in the second round.

Round 2 - This is where things got interesting. Of Dallas' second round rated pre-draft visitors, only two were still on the board when it was their time to pick: Derrick Henry and Connor Cook. Referring back to the Cowboys' draft board, they only had one player remaining (a top-five guy on their board) when it came time to make their selection: linebacker, Jaylon Smith. Thus, the conversation likely came down to these three players.

Given the selection of Ezekiel Elliott in the first round, the idea of selecting Henry was likely quickly scrapped, thus giving way to the choice of picking Smith or Cook. Given that they had a later round grade on Cook, and a top-five grade on Smith, the conversation likely didn't take too long, ending in the obvious selection of Jaylon Smith.

Derrick Henry would be selected by the Tennessee Titans in the middle of the second round.

I mention that this is where our draft got interesting for a couple of reasons. With Jaylon Smith's injury status indicating he would more than likely need to red shirt his rookie NFL season, I have to think that the Cowboys almost knew they would select him in the second round.

Why do I say this? There was a slim-to-none chance that Smith would be selected in the first round and top of the second. Thus, by rating him so highly, it was almost a given that he'd be the highest rated player when they were on the clock in the second (trade scenarios aside).

The only thing that would've made this more interesting is if one of their first-round graded players was available at their second round pick. But, since they weren't, we'll never know. I have to assume that the conversation was fairly quick when they chose to select Smith.

Round 3 - As we came into the third round, the Cowboys were sitting on the clock with three eligible pre-draft visitors on the board: running back Paul Perkins, and quarterbacks Connor Cook and Jacoby Brissett. Again, we can likely eliminate the running back because of the first round selection. This leaves us with the two quarterbacks. So this means Dallas selects their quarterback of the future at the beginning of the third round, right?

Well, not so fast. Given that Brissett had a late third round grade, they were likely targeting him in the fourth round, and thus didn't want to take him this early. So Cook's our man? Not quite. Instead, the Cowboys chose to take a guy they had rated five players later on their board in defensive tackle, Maliek Collins.

I have no explanation for this move, other than either someone pounding the table for the player, or the team being turned off to Cook from the actual visit. They didn't bring Collins in pre-draft, nor did they have him rated higher than Cook.

With Romo's career winding down, Cook seemed like the selection here. We had who we thought would be a staple at 3-technique in Tyrone Crawford, and had just signed Cedric Thornton at 1-tech. The Collins selection seems to simply be a draft day decision based on war room discussion, and one where they didn't pick the pre-draft visitor.

Round 4 [First Pick] - This was another interesting selection the Cowboys made last season. When the fourth round began, Connor Cook was still available, and we all remember what happened: Dallas tried for a second time to trade up to get a quarterback they saw fall a little bit (the first being Paxton Lynch at the end of the first round), only to be out-bid by the Oakland Raiders. Thus, when their pick came a couple of selections later, Cook was off their board.

So, who were they looking at?

Running back Paul Perkins was still available, as well as offensive guard Connor McGovern and quarterback Dak Prescott. In retrospect, we're all sitting at our computer screaming, "PICK DAK!!!!!!!!!!!" However, hindsight is very much 20/20.

So given the Cowboys had three players still on their board, two of which were not considered reaches (given their board), you'd think the pick would come from these guys, right? Think again.

Perkins was likely eliminated -- again -- because of the earlier selection of Elliott. We all know the team liked Dak; after all, they had a million pre-draft workouts with him. But, they also had him rated about half a round later than where they were currently picking at round four, pick three. So, they probably felt he was a little bit of a reach at this point.

Going back to Dallas' overall draft board, removing running backs for the aforementioned reason of picking Zeke, Dallas had DE Ronald Blair, OG Connor McGovern, WR Pharoh Cooper, CB Anthony Brown, and DE Charles Tapper as their top guys, in that order. If we stuck with the pre-draft visits theory, McGovern was the guy. But is he currently a Dallas Cowboy? Nope.

This time, the team goes in another direction again with the selection of Charles Tapper, DE, Oklahoma.

There are a couple interesting take-aways from this selection. The first is that it would appear when the Cowboys are comparing players at the same position within a couple of spots of each other on the draft board, they will likely sway towards the bigger school guy. But this should not be news to any Cowboys fan. They also went more with need at this pick by selecting a rush end.

Again, the Cowboys do not pick the player that they brought in for the draft workout. Why? Likely another war room discussion, leading to best player available at a position of need.

Round 4 [Second Pick] - At this selection, Dak Prescott, McGovern, and Brown were the top three players on the board for the Cowboys. You have to think that Dallas had lost out on their potential quarterback of the future twice, and wanted a guy who could come in and learn under Tony for a couple of years (*evil smirk*), so they finally get their quarterback.

Turning the page to this season

Current List of Pre-Draft Visitors:

  1. Derek Barnett
  2. Takk McKinley
  3. Taco Charlton
  4. TJ Watt
  5. Charles Harris
  6. Tarell Bashum
  7. Tanoh Passagnon
  8. Tre White
  9. Adoree Jackson
  10. Derek Rivers
  11. Chidobe Awuzie
  12. Gareon Conley
  13. Marcus Williams
  14. Kevin King
  15. Cordrea Tankersley
  16. Fabian Moreau
  17. Teez Tabor
  18. Quincy Wilson
  19. Justin Evans
  20. Treston Decoud
  21. Obi Melifonwu
  22. Tedric Thompson
  23. Xavier Woods
  24. Shaquill Griffin
  25. Juju Smith-Schuster
  26. Curtis Samuel

Important Takeaways

I want to highlight a couple of items that I find a little eye-opening, that should hopefully give us some insight into this front office's intentions a few weeks prior to draft day:

1. The Cowboys first round selection will very likely come from their pre-draft visits.

This should come as no surprise to most fans. If the player you want the Cowboys to select is not on the list of pre-draft visitors, you may want to give up on that dream now. In the past six drafts, only Morris Claiborne was not a pre-draft visitor, as he was likely a player they didn't see falling out of the top five.

This theory eliminates all offensive players from first round consideration, and defensive names such as Budda Baker, Tim Williams, Marlon Humphrey, Reuben Foster, Zach Cunningham, Malik McDowell, Carl Lawson, and Sidney Jones.

2. The Cowboys invite widely regarded first round picks as pre-draft visitors, but may not have them graded in the first.

Players such as Laquon Treadwell, Kenny Clark, Karl Joseph and Will Fuller were all considered first round guys who the Cowboys had rated later than most.

I think this second takeaway is very important to understand. It acts as almost a "smokescreen" effect. The Cowboys are certainly okay selecting any of the players they bring in to The Star, but it's not always as early as you think.

This is where my speculation comes in, but I feel like this eliminates the following players from 28th pick consideration: Taco Charlton, Chidobe Awuzie, Teez Tabor, Adoree Jackson, Cordrea Tankersley, Marcus Williams, Derek Rivers and Obi Melifonwu.

I won't go into a scouting report for each of these guys, but for one reason or another, based on tape, scheme fit, school/division size or character concerns, I don't see the Cowboys having these players as first rounders.

Hot Take: I also think there's a decent possibility that Derek Barnett comes in as a second round grade for this team. I don't believe he fits the mold of what they're looking for as a first round right edge rusher. He's not extremely athletic, and seems to most often win with motor, or incompetence by the offensive lineman.

Yes, I understand that the 28th pick is almost the second round, but I believe that they will like others there more.

The Final Bunch

Taking all of this into consideration, I think there's a strong chance that the Cowboys' first round pick will be one of the following players:

  • Takk McKinley, DE
  • TJ Watt, DE
  • Charles Harris, DE
  • Tre White, CB
  • Gareon Conley, CB
  • Kevin King, CB
  • Fabian Moreau, CB
  • Quincy Wilson, CB

Now, there are still four player visits to go, so this list can obviously grow. But for now, this is what we're working with. All of these players either showed natural scheme fit or uncanny scheme flexibility on their college tape.

These defensive ends can all be solid 1-gap edge rushers and can immediately contribute in Rod Marinelli's rotation.

All cornerbacks listed above show natural skills and don't struggle in coverage. Marinelli employs a press cover-3 scheme in his secondary, which is a very simple coverage system to grasp. This allows the team to look more for athletic and cerebral cornerbacks.

All five guys hit the measurable threshold this front office looks for, and they all played in big college programs.

No one can say who Dallas will select on the first night of the draft, or even if they'll select a player then at all. All of that depends on their board and what happens on draft night. However, based on past trends, I have a good feeling that one of the above players will be a Dallas Cowboy come mini-camp.



Dallas Cowboys fan since the Drew Bledsoe "era." I love Tony AND Dak. I like to think that I'm the most objective that a fan can get, while still being a diehard, which I truly believe is the 8th wonder of the world. Go Cowboys!!

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13 Comments
  • https://www.facebook.com/PoliticalRealities/ LD Jackson

    Well, I’m certainly not an expert, but from watching the films I have watched on YouTube, my favorite for Dallas to pick at #28 is TJ Watt. He never gives up on a play, even if it isn’t coming his way. And he seems to have a serious ability to sniff out the quarterback.

  • dallas1966

    Here is my 2 cents:
    Round 1: Watts, DE, Wisconsin
    Round 2: Williams, S, Utah
    Round 3: Moreau, CB, UCLA
    Round 4: Bowser, DE, Houston
    Round 6: Ross, WR, Mississippi State
    Round 7 [a]: running back
    Round 7 [b]: Mathis, DE, Washington

    • Kevin Black

      No way Moreau falls to the 3rd. Same for Bowser. Too many 3-4 teams are drooling over Bowser. I absolutely LOVE your pick of Mathis in the 7th. I don’t think he’ll make it there as a few 3-4 teams might rank him a bit higher, but if we could get him, that would be awesome.

  • dallas1966

    Instead of Watts, I meant McKinley, DE, UCLA, in Round 1.
    That would be my 2 cents!!!

    • Kevin Black

      No you didn’t. McKinley has no lateral agility. Watt could do circles around him. McKinley gets hustle sacks. NFL left tackles know how to deal with speed and push the player past the pocket. McKinley cannot bend and flatten the edge at all. Excellent speed, but if he doesn’t win off the snap, he has absolutely no chance at getting to the QB.

  • deal with it

    I’m not sure why Jabrill Peppers has fallen off the lists but his stock & potential under Marinelli is rated higher in my book.

    • Kevin Black

      That’s because Peppers can’t cover and freelances way to much. You can’t freelance in Marinelli’s system. Peppers is an athlete who plays football. Not a football player who’s an athlete, which is what you really want.

      • deal with it

        I think differently. he’s a versatile athlete who could excell when nailed down to 2 or 3 specific positions & that’s exactly what Marinelli wants,not to mention an awesome return guy & a high motor.
        I also thing under our conditioning coach & the right diet he could put on 20 LBS & be just as fast.

        • Kevin Black

          Just an FYI: He freelanced so much last year that the coaches gave up trying to coach him and just worked around his freelancing.

          • deal with it

            not very good coaches (as evident by their record) then & the NFL don’t play that…..

  • Kevin Black

    I’m going to throw in with Watt as well. His knees worry me, but if he checks out medically and he’s available at 28, I’d be thrilled. He produced on 30% fewer snaps than most players due to having to drop back into coverage. He won’t have that problem here. I love his drive and IQ. Add his natural athleticism and he could be scary for the rest of the NFC East.

    • John Williams

      Yeah, draft twitter has pretty much sold me on Watt. My Second choice would be Kevin King.

  • John Williams

    Dude. This is an awesome analysis of the Cowboys penchant for utilizing their predraft visits.

    Really great read. I think if the first round pick is any of those guys you narrowed it down to; particularly Takk, Watt, King, Harris, or Conley, I think it will excellent.

    Even better would be if all of those guys are available at 28 and someone wants to get back into the first round and Dallas can trade back.

Dallas Cowboys

Jaguars Waive Barry Church; Could Cowboys Bring Him Back?

Jess Haynie

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Barry Church

Veteran safety Barry Church was released today by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Could he return home to the Dallas Cowboys, where he spent his first seven seasons?

Despite his leadership and consistency on defense, Dallas allowed Church to leave in free agency when Jacksonville gave him a lucrative deal. But if he clears waivers, could the Cowboys consider bring him back for depth and support during their likely playoff run?

Jane Slater of the NFL Network reported on this potential reunion:

Jane Slater on Twitter

Cowboys haven't reached out to S Barry Church but I'm told they are discussing the possibility of bringing him back to Dallas according to a source informed. Church, 30, was released by the Jags today and is familiar with the system having played there from 2010-2016.

The Cowboys have had solid play from their current starting safeties, Jeff Heath and Xavier Woods. Neither is a star, but the duo has not been a liability during the team's current five-game winning streak.

Church was a similar player, reliable if never exceptional, during his time in Dallas. He could be a nice insurance policy for the playoffs if something happened to one of the starters.

Barry knows the system. He never played for Kris Richard, but he was with Rod Marinelli for three seasons before leaving in free agency.

According to reports out of Jacksonville, Church is being released because the team wants to go with younger, cheaper players now that their season is over. There is no known injury keeping Barry from playing.

Of course, Dallas would have to make room on the roster to pick Church up. They could third-year prospect Darian Thompson, who is the current fourth man at safety.

Barry Church must now go through the 24-hour waiver process. A team may claim him, including the Cowboys. We'll see what the future holds.



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Dallas Cowboys

How the Dallas Cowboys Can Win the NFC East This Week

Jess Haynie

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Jaylon Smith, Eagles

It's only Week 15, but the Dallas Cowboys could become the 2018 NFC East Champions this week through a couple of scenarios. I thought we'd take a moment today to break down how the Boys can win their division and assure their spot in the playoffs.

With three weeks left in the regular season, most of the divisional games have already been played. The only two left to play are the Week 17 finales; Cowboys at Giants and Eagles at Redskins.

Here are the current standings:

  1. Dallas Cowboys 8-5 (4-1 in division)
  2. Philadelphia Eagles 6-7 (3-2 in division)
  3. Washington Redskins 6-7 (2-3 in division)
  4. New York Giants 5-8 (1-4 in division)

The Giants have been scrappy lately, winning four of their last five, but it's too late for them to try to win the division. Even if the Cowboys were to fall to 8-8, the best New York could do is tie them in overall record. They would have also split their head-to-head series, negating that tiebreaker.

At that point, it would come down to the record within the division. New York would improve to 2-4 with a win over Dallas in Week 17, but the Cowboys would still be 4-2 against the NFC East. Dallas would still be the division champion.

So, that knocks out New York. Technically, the Eagles and Redskins are still alive. But their margin is about as slim as it gets.

Both Philadelphia and Washington need the Cowboys to lose their last three games, and then to also win out themselves, to steal the NFC East crown.

Sean's Scout: Cowboys Thankful for Cooper in Division Win Over Redskins

Dallas Cowboys WR Amari Cooper

For the Redskins, it's about their record against division opponents. The best they can finish is 3-3, assuming they'd win their last game against the Eagles. With the head-to-head series against Dallas split this year, they would have to finish 9-7 overall and have the Cowboys drop to 8-8 to become NFC East Champions.

The Eagles also need to finish one game ahead of Dallas, but for a different reason. Philadelphia lost both their games with the Cowboys this year, so Dallas has the head-to-head tiebreaker.

So that really makes thing simple for Dallas; win just one of your last three games and you're the division champion.

Not only that, but even if Dallas were to fall this week against the Indianapolis Colts, they could still clinch the division with losses by the Eagles (@ Rams) and Redskins (@ Jaguars).

It would certainly behoove the Cowboys to get the division locked up now. They could then use the last two weeks of the season to get ready for the playoffs.

Dallas would have the freedom rest banged up players like Ezekiel Elliott and Zack Martin. It would also allow them to work in returning players such as Sean Lee and Tavon Austin and figure out their new rotations without pressure to win.

Beating the Colts on Sunday isn't a given; they're at home and desperate to stay alive in the AFC playoff picture. They are the toughest opponent Dallas has left until January.

But despite that, with the Eagles facing a juggernaut team and Washington trying to play football without a quarterback, there's a great chance that the Cowboys will be the NFC East Champions by Sunday night.



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Game Notes

#INDvsDAL: How The Game May Be Decided In The Red Zone

Kevin Brady

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Fantasy Football - Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings - Week 2 2
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

In many ways the Dallas Cowboys offense has found their stride in recent weeks. Over this five game win streak they have "found their identity" playing ball control offense and trusting their quarterback to make big throws when needed most. Of course the defense has been the star most weeks, but this offense should not be slept on either.

This doesn't mean the offense has been without their fair share of struggles, however, particularly in the red zone. Struggles that the numbers say could cost the Cowboys this weeks' game in Indianapolis if they don't get it cleaned up.

In terms of red zone offensive efficiency the Cowboys have been downright horrendous. In fact, they are dead-last in the league in success rate inside the 10 yard line, last in first-and-goal success rate, and 21st in success rate between the 11 and 20 yard lines.

There's no sugar-coating those numbers, they are bad. Especially when you consider that this team has arguably the league's best running back and a quarterback with the size and athleticism you might expect from a linebacker.

For as bad as the Cowboys are inside the red zone, the Colts are equally as good. Indianapolis is top 10 in terms of success rate inside the 10, at the goal line, and in first-and-goal success rate. They are also 11th in success rate between the 11 and 20 yard lines.

Despite not having the individual running back the Cowboys have, the Colts offensive line and skill players as a whole set them up a bit better when the field is shortened. Tight end Eric Ebron has been rather incredible in terms of production this season, catching 12 touchdowns on 58 receptions. Andrew Luck is also a more accurate quarterback than Dak Prescott, though Prescott should be a much more dangerous red zone threat than he currently is.

Bob Sturm on Twitter

I am working on the Cowboys 32nd ranked Goal-to-Go offensive numbers. They have run 35 of their 59 total plays out of Shotgun-11 Personnel. In those 35 plays, the average gain per snap is....12 INCHES. I am not kidding. They could out-gain that by running QB sneaks. I am amazed.

Of course, some of the Cowboys red zone struggles can be pinned on offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. Linehan has failed to scheme open the "easy" red zone touchdowns we see so often around the league. As pointed out by Bob Sturm on Twitter this week, the Cowboys' personnel groupings and play calls when in goal-to-go situations have been questionable to say the least. But while blame does fall on the coaches' shoulders, the players need to execute better as well.

Games in the NFL often come down to just a handful of plays, and red zone efficiency plays a key role in deciding the outcome of close games every week. If this is once again the case on Sunday, based on past performance, the Dallas Cowboys could be in trouble against the efficient Colts.



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