We are just over a month away from the 2016 NFL Draft, which means that we will slowly start to get a better idea of who the Dallas Cowboys are targeting with the fourth overall pick.
Any rumors of the Cowboys draft plans so far have typically turned out to be just that – rumors that carried little insight into who will be wearing the silver and blue on April 28th.
However, one name has been picking up steam recently around Cowboys Nation, and it is quarterback Paxton Lynch out of Memphis.
After the likes of Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel, and Kellen Moore, led the Cowboys to a 4 win 2015 season, the immediate reaction by fans was that this team needed to walk away from the fourth overall pick with the heir to Tony Romo.
That essentially put three names into the mix. Carson Wentz and Jared Goff out of North Dakota State and California, respectively, were two popular names as the near consensus top signal callers available this year.
The last name is Paxton Lynch, who likely won’t cost Dallas that fourth overall pick. While I do not expect the team to select Wentz or Goff with this pick, the reports over the past few days have been that Will McClay and Co. are trying to get back into the first round to put themselves in a position to grab Lynch later on.
The Cowboys have glaring needs at other positions outside of the backup QB spot. If they are committed enough to spend the assets needed to get back into the first round for Lynch, trading away picks that can be used on the defensive line and secondary, I much rather see them just use their current #4 pick on Goff or Wentz.
Not only would this allow the Cowboys to hold onto their 34th pick and beyond, but they would walk away with one of two QBs in Goff or Wentz that I believe are both better prospects than Lynch.
//insidethestar.com/colin-cowherd-dallas-cowboys-can-draft-goff-win-2016-nfl-draft/
The Cowboys have selected just one quarterback in the draft during their time with Tony Romo, and it was Stephen McGee in 2009. Something just does not sit right with me when I hear about this team seriously considering the unpolished Lynch as their next best bet to add a young QB to the roster.
While drafting any player with any pick carries it’s own risk, trusted draft sources seem to be in agreement when it comes to Goff and Wentz. Both of these quarterbacks are being conceived as franchise guys, while Lynch’s analysis has been all over the place.
If the Cowboys draft Goff of Wentz and it does not work out, it will not be due to reaching with their selection for one of them. The team and it’s fans would be surprised right along with the majority of draft analysts out there should one of these two guys not pan out as a Cowboy – especially after getting valuable learning time behind Tony Romo.
Meanwhile, drafting Lynch would mean drafting an expensive project player. When I watch Paxton on tape, I see a QB that is going to have to put in serious work in order to adjust to the speed of the NFL game.
While everyone raves about his height and composure in the pocket, I see a QB that played in a system that rarely allowed him to make professional type throws. He’s drawn comparisons to Marcus Mariota, but isn’t nearly as dangerous of a runner – which leaves him in a bit of a grey area when it comes to projecting these modern spread quarterbacks at the next level.
If the Dallas Cowboys want to leave the first round of the draft with a QB, it should cost them one pick. That one pick can be spent on the upside of Jared Goff or Carson Wentz, or they can spend multiple picks on the project that is Paxton Lynch.
I'm with you. Lynch and Connor Cook are both Round 1-2 guys who I have no interest in.
Take Goff or Wentz at 4, or walk away with your QB in the fourth round.
Sean I will be Goff ing, when it's the Cowboys turn to select the heir apparent to Romo.
The real question is are these two QBs, Goff and Wentz, high probability of being franchise type QBs? If they are questionable as franchise type QBs I would not take a chance of wasting a fourth pick on them. Dallas could be as good as the 2014 team easily with a couple of good draft picks. They especially need more pass rushing and better secondary help. If T Romo gets hurt, Goff and Wentz aren't going to help you in 2016 and may not even help that much in 2017. These rookie QBs will be going through a big learning/development curve. If a fair competition is done, neither one of them would likely be able to beat out Kellen Moore in 2016 for the 2nd team QB position.
My main man, George. You were saying some really good stuff about the risks of using the 4th pick on a QB. I agree with you that you have to completely in love with the guy to make that move. Any sense of concern about his pro potential should be an immediate disqualifier. But then you said that thing at the end about Kellen Moore. Kellen Moore was an undrafted player who so far has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and only completed 59% of his passes. I respect your loyalty to the guy and what you believe he's capable of, but asserting that he is automatically better than the two best quarterbacks in the draft is completely illogical. We have no evidence of that whatsoever.
Jess Haynie: This is my understanding and I would be the first to admit I could be wrong. I don't think Kellen Moore is better than the two best quarterbacks in the draft. I didn't mean to imply that. What I was trying to say is that I think K Moore is likely (not for sure) to beat out either one of these guys for the 2nd team QB position in 2016 in a fair competition. This is because a rookie QB goes through some adjustments and development and Kellen Moore is a fairly experienced QB at this point who knows the Dallas offense/playbook well. If they are future stars and franchise type QBs that shows up quickly in preseason, then yes they are likely to outplay Kellen Moore in preseason. Also, if they are a fourth pick they could automatically be given the 2nd team QB position with no competition with anybody. As you know I am very optimistic on K Moore going into 2016. This is because 1) he has improved each year in the NFL and will be on his fifth year, 2) now has some starting experience, 3) has worked with S Linehan for two plus years, 4) has S Linehan's confidence, 5) knows the Dallas offense/playbook well and 5) will likely improve/correct his deficiencies from 2015 because they were areas he has excelled at in the past and he was playing against first team defenses for the first time. He will be riding high and confidently going into 2016 and has always played better than anyone thinks he can play. I wouldn't be surprised if he outplayed T Romo or at least played as well in the preseason games.
Well that's where the "fun" comes in when evaluating QBs. The last QB that virtually had no dispute in potential was Luck. Ever since, the Mariota's and Winston's of the world have been titled as everything from the next John Elway to Ryan Leaf. I would say that Goff and Wentz are certainly questionable, but the talent and upside is very good with them.
Add in the ability to groom one of these two for a few years, and you should expect to have something special. While that expectation could still fall short, it should not shy Dallas away from using the fourth overall pick on a QB because it will cost even more to get Lynch. You would be giving up later picks that could be used on that pass rusher or defensive back, as mentioned in the article.
While Goff and Wentz may not help a ton in their playing time for 2016 should Romo go down, they would at least be getting valuable experience. That should be worth something to fans, even if the team is losing, compared to the 2015 alternative of losing with QBs that had no hope of factoring into our future plans.
The second we started losing games with Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel, the season felt pointless.
George,
I'm with you that QB is the unwise pick at #4. I'm down with that.
I will say that I'd rather have a QB than Bosa, FWIW. I know Sean is in agreement with me there.
I want to give you the chance to sell me on Moore. Show me something. Film. Data. Indisputable evidence from their 2015 seasons (Moore's, Goff's, & Wentz's) that suggests Kellen is easily going to beat them out for the backup job.
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RJ Ochoa: I don't have indisputable evidence. My understanding is that Goff and Wentz are not likely to be franchise type QBs. I don't really know a lot about them other than a few things I have read. I also don't necessarily think K Moore would easily beat them out for the 2nd team QB position in 2016. I said he is likely to beat them out. My logic is that Goff and Wentz will be rookies. Rookies usually go through a big learning curve and development process, which takes time. There have been exceptions such as A Luck. Some great current franchise type QBs had to learn and develop into great NFL QBs such as T Brady, T Romo, P Manning, and D Brees. K Moore on the other hand is now in his fifth year in the NFL, has some starting experience, has improved each year in the NFL, has worked with S Linehan for two plus years, has S Linehan's confidence and knows the Dallas offense/playbook well. K Moore's stats in 2015 weren't very good but he only played ten and one half quarters with limited first team reps. The best data point about K Moore's 2015 performance is what S Linehan has said who is an expert on evaluating QBs. He thought K Moore played fairly well and did some really good things such as moving the ball down the field, but made some mistakes. S Linehan also said after the Buffalo game that K Moore followed the game plan to a tee. If you factor in that it was his first time playing against first team defenses, yes he did pretty well overall. He probably did as well as some of those famous QBs I mentioned above in their first few times playing. Also, I watched every game and his physical limitations did not seem to show up much in his play. Also, his deficiencies (i.e. too many interceptions, too few touchdown throws and not as much accuracy as he has had in the past) are areas K Moore has always excelled at, so there is a good chance he will improve/correct these deficiencies. K Moore has done some really good things in his 2013 and 2014 preseason play. In 2013 he got to play for Hill at 2nd team against New England and essentially won the game, had a high QB rating and threw for two touchdowns and no interceptions. In 2014 he played 3rd team QB as Caldwell brought in a veteran, Orlovsky, to be the 2nd team QB. At 3rd team he had a 108 QB rating, three touchdowns and no interceptions for his preseason games. He way outplayed Orlovsky but did not get any 2nd team reps so there was no way Caldwell could make K Moore the 2nd team QB. Caldwell was impressed and said K Moore is very consistent and plays with confidence and moxie. This set up K Moore to compete with Orlovsky for the 2nd team QB position in 2015. For some reason K Moore did not play that well in the one preseason game he was given a chance at 2nd team and Orlovsky played real well in his two games playing at 2nd team. Detroit only kept two QBs and Dallas picked up K Moore. K Moore was not drafted because of his physical limitations. However, he has already proven he should have been drafted. He may have physical limitations but he was one of the best all time pocket passers in college. He came close to setting several new NCAA records and did in fact set two. The best information I have from his college performance is that his college coach, Peterson, who is not known to be outspoken, said and I quote " K Moore is the best pocket passer I have ever seen". The real question for K Moore is his pocket passing skills so outstanding that he can overcome or compensate for his physical limitations to play in the NFL? I am more confident now than at any time in his NFL career that he probably can.
Sell me this pen…