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Seriously, Could Down Season Lead to Dez Bryant’s Release?

Jess Haynie

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Dez Bryant

While we never like to think of our favorite players being released, Dallas Cowboys fans have faced this reality twice in recent years. The departures of DeMarcus Ware in 2014 and Tony Romo just a few months ago make it clear that few players, if any, are safe. Could Dez Bryant be joining them soon?

After this season, Bryant's contract will give the Cowboys options. He will count $16.5 million against the salary cap and only have $8 million left in guaranteed money. Dallas could release him outright for $8.5 million in cap relief, or use the June 1st-provision to split that up to just $4 million dead money in 2018 and 2019.

Could the Cowboys possibly consider letting go of Dez Bryant?  What sort of 2017 performance would he need to have to take that option off the table?

Dez Bryant

WR Dez Bryant

At his best, Bryant is one of the toughest matchups among NFL receivers. He can overpower most cornerbacks and is still dangerous in the open field. Dez Bryant is still a franchise receiver when his health and the circumstances on offense allow him to be.

Health has been an issue for the last two seasons. Dez missed seven games in 2015 and three more last season. Even when he's on the field, Bryant can sometimes look labored by his nagging injuries and it impedes performance. Even if you project his per-game stats from 2016 over a full season, they would have been significantly lower numbers in yards and touchdowns than his best seasons.

Dez Bryant turns 29 this November, which means he turns 30 midway through the 2018 season. These health issues and whatever declining physical skills he has aren't going to be improved with age. If 2017 is another down year, a three-year trend become very difficult to ignore.

That said, defining a "down year" can get tricky. This isn't the same offense that Dez had his best seasons with from 2012-2014. Even if Bryant's chemistry with Dak Prescott is assumably better in their second year together, Cole Beasley has emerged as a favorite target for Prescott and will cut into Dez's opportunities. What's more, the ground-focused attack with Ezekiel Elliott can be detrimental to Bryant's production.

Cowboys Blog - DeMarcus Ware Easily The Greatest 94 In Dallas Cowboys History

LB/DE DeMarcus Ware (AP Photo/Kevin Terrell)

The DeMarcus Ware comparison is a strong one. Ware was about to turn 32 when Dallas released him in 2014.  Despite missing only three games the previous season, Ware's production had plummeted to just six sacks. Dallas cleared roughly $7 million in cap space by cutting Ware and the move seemed very shrewd. Jerry Jones was even praised for thinking with his head over his heart, which has not been his reputation as General Manager.

In hindsight, some could argue that it was a mistake. Ware went on to win a Super Bowl in Denver and had 10 sacks despite a lesser role on the Broncos defense. This past offseason, some were even clamoring for Ware to return to Dallas to help one of the league's worst pass rushes.

Ultimately, I don't blame the Cowboys for the Ware decision.  The logic was sound in the moment, and even the hindsight argument is faulty. Ware's success in Denver came because he was surrounded by talented guys. If he'd stayed in Dallas, he still would've be asked to be the focal point of the defensive line. There is little reason to think that would've been effective.

Dez Bryant

WR Dez Bryant

Age and declining performance sent DeMarcus Ware, the greatest pass-rusher in Cowboys history and one of the best to ever play football, into early free agency. Clearly, it would be foolish to think that it can't happen to Dez Bryant.

Nobody is rooting for this, of course. A big year from Dez is a great thing for Dallas. That $16.5 million cap hit is perfectly fine if he's producing like a true franchise receiver. Dallas can afford to pay it while Prescott and Elliott are still discounted from their rookie deals, and especially when all of the Tony Romo dead money comes off the books in 2018.

This is the major difference between the Bryant and Ware situations, and one that works heavily in Dez's favor. The Cowboys were in desperate need for cap space when they cut DeMarcus, a move that they may not have made otherwise. The 2018 Cowboys will have a lot more breathing room and may not have to make the tough decision on Bryant.

That said, if Bryant misses another big chunk of games or clearly isn't the same athlete anymore, Dallas may need the cash to go get someone else. History has proven that Terrance Williams can't fill Bryant's shoes. If Dez isn't a franchise receiver anymore, the Cowboys will need to find one and probably can't afford to keep paying Bryant at that same level.

This topic is almost certain to be revisited after the 2017 season. Hopefully, it's to say that Bryant was too good to even consider releasing. If Dez struggles next year, though, we may resume this conversation sooner than you think.



Cowboys fan since 1992, blogger since 2011. Bringing you the objectivity of an outside perspective with the passion of a die-hard fan. I love to talk to my readers, so please comment on any article and I'll be sure to respond!

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28 Comments
  • Wayne Young

    No. Next question.

    • Jess Haynie

      So, nothing about the team’s recent history suggests it’s a possibility?

      • Wayne Young

        Jerry is too loyal. He’ll find every reason he can short of trading or releasing Dez to justify keeping him even if he has an off year. Jerry picked Dez. Last thing he likes doing is admitting he was wrong.

  • Willie Rogers

    Whoever wrote this must have lost a brain cell or two, Dez will retire a rich cowboy.

    • Jess Haynie

      I can’t argue the brain cell loss, but ask yourself…. why have the Cowboys avoided restructuring Bryant’s contract? They’ve moved money on all these other guys to create cap room, but they’ve left Bryant’s contract more flexible. Why would they do that unless they were also considering they may have to release him one day?

      • Willie Rogers

        Lol, it may come a day they release Dak,Zeke,& some of those offensive linemen.

  • http://www.facebook.com/DallasCowboyBooksBlog fgoodwin

    I hope Dez has a great year, but we can’t continue to pay him like a franchise player when he spends so much time in the training room.

    • Jess Haynie

      Jerry’s line about “availability” being the most important ability is one of the truest things he’s ever said.

  • Ethan Chazin

    Big “IF” in play here, but given their offensive configuration makes sense esp. if they could draft a big time college WR. The cap savings alone would enable them to do things but bottom line there are intangibles at play i.e. his positive impact on the other players.

    • Jess Haynie

      You just nailed another big point. Given the picks already spent on the o-line and investments on defense just made, Dallas could easily target a WR in the first-round next year.

  • https://InsideTheStar.com/ Bryson Treece

    Not enough people are willing to ask this question, so I appreciate you for doing it. Dez makes good money right now, but his numbers (yards, TDs, etc.) aren’t quite up to what we expect. His injuries are a little too often. He does add great value to this team, but I have to think the Cowboys are keeping their options open. Hence no restructure on his contract yet.

    Personally, I would like to stick around, retire a Cowboy, but I look at how deep we’re stacking talent at WR and I believe the reason we’re doing that is because it’s likely Dez will miss games due to injury. If a guy is that predictable, and being paid like he is, that’s just a tough situation. Something has to give, eventually.

    • Jess Haynie

      Thank you. Obviously, it’s not something any of us want to see happen. But if the team leaving themselves an escape route, which they clearly are by not restructuring his deal, then I think it’s appropriate to consider the possibility.

      • ThePsychodad69

        Maybe taking care of the all-pro OLinemans 2nd contract before they worry about Dez’s 3rd.

        Its silly to look through a window and guess how warm it is inside or if the toilets full of turds.

  • TreFKennedy88

    We’ll never know the answer because Dez gonna have 90+’s catches, 1200-1400 yards and 12-20 td’s

    • Jess Haynie

      I admire your optimism and hope you’re right!

      • TreFKennedy88

        Trust me Dez is gonna re claim his top 5 status, plus to me Dez is a hall of famer, gotta get at least 10K yards and 100+ td’s ( which is on pace for) among this generation of wide outs, Aj, Julio, Demaryius, all of them Dez scores at a much higher rate

  • Matthew Harrell

    I agree. Not only is this entirely possible, it is very likely unless Dez has a monster year. Now I love D-Ware but greatest pass rusher in Cowboys history? This is all in fun but I would put Randy White and Harvey Martin up there with if not ahead of him. Even George Andrie deserves consideration. A 60s beast, he had unofficially 4 straight seasons with double digit sacks, even reaching 18 in ’66. These guys played before the sack was an official stat but you can look up unofficial team info and research will show that these guys had monster numbers also also. Of course Bob Lilly, Too Tall Jones and Jethro Pugh are in the argument as well. Lilly’s numbers are harder to verify but he is alleged to have had 15 sacks in 66 along with Andrie’s 18 and reached at least 94 in his career. Pugh had 4 straight years with 13 or more sacks, reaching 15 in’68.Harvey Martin had 20 sacks and a Super Bowl co-MVP (shared with Randy White, no less) in’77 Randy White, like Martin, absolutely terrorized offenses recording multiple double digit sack seasons and amassed 111 career sacks. Martin had 113 career followed by Too Tall with 105, Andrie 97, Pugh 95 and Mr. Cowboy Bob Lilly 94. I know Ware’s stats are official and arguably better but my argument is these other legends played with each other. Lilly had Andrie and Pugh also eating up sacks while White, Martin and Jones played together. The amount of Defensive destruction done by these two generations of Doomsday left less availability for higher personal statistic acheivment while Ware playing for far less superior Ds was able to pile up more. Just fun fan banter but I put Ware near the top, just not on it. He certainly stands amoung a group of Legends.

    • Jess Haynie

      Thank you for the historical perspective. I’m only 35 so I greatly appreciate that insight. You’re right that I was leaning on the official stats, which is really we have for some of these discussions.

  • Matthew Harrell

    Also to the Dez article, I do like him and hope he has his best season yet but Jess’ logic is sound..I’ve said for awhile Dez is overrsted. Not to say bad, just overrated in the sense that he brings more bark than bite and his position is not as valuable as he or most else believe. Do the Patriots have a Dez? Before ODB did the Giants have one? Have the won a title since having ODB? If he doesn’t have a career year, cut him, his contract will become an albatross at a time when Zeke most importantly followed by Dak will get big ones. All of this after Zack Martin gets paid. Throw in thst he turns 30 next year, the Ware scenario certainly applies here. Having seen my favorite player the last 12 years suffer the same fate due to age injury and most importantly salary, its just a sad fact of football life. Next season we can draft a top WR who will be much younger and cheaper so it makes sense. The one thing that could change is Dez having a monster year.

  • ThePsychodad69

    Uhhh……didn’t Ware want to play in a 3-4, got salty when Wade was fired and had been injured for his last 3yrs in Dallas, the choice was Wares to stay for less money.

    Pretty sure it was for everybodies benefit @ the time especially after wasting franchise tags on Spencer and paying Rat.

    Dez’s numbers would have to be Eagle like to even consider dumping him, besides can you pull a #1 WR out of your hat to replace him, maybe a recycled #1 will fall from the sky or draft a stud(easier said than done) with the 32nd pick.

    • Jess Haynie

      You’re right that some circumstances were different with Ware. Ultimately, though, the scenario of a guy underperforming his contract and getting released has played out time and again in the NFL. Everyone has some unique aspects to their situation, but those key points have a fairly consistent outcome.

  • Russ_Te

    I don’t look for a skills or speed dropoff yet for Dez. It’s just a question of how brittle in 2017.

    If he misses 10 games and Butler comes on like Miles Austin did, much easier equation in the offseason.

    But the dominant run game is Dez’s friend of course. More loaded boxes = more single coverage. He’ll have a big year if healthy.

    I do think Linehan waits too long some games to get him involved. The dynasty 49’ers never had this run attack, but they always made sure Jerry Rice touched the ball early & they moved him all over the LOS. There’s no reason not to copy that for Dez.

    • Jess Haynie

      Good points as always, Russ. I think you’re right about the way Dez is used sometimes hurting him. He seems to be a momentum player, sort of like a RB who needs enough touches to be effective.

  • Randy Martin

    Ok so at first I read the headline and thought oh no! And then I saw it was Jess Haynie who is certainly one of the more reasonable writers of all things Cowboy. So I read it with an open mind. He backed up his premise with facts and it was a reasonable assertion. On the surface, it sounds illogical but there could be merit. Dez Bryant’s best years were 2011-2014. Those first two years we were still trying to find a rushing game with Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray. Murray came on in 2013 and 2014 and Dez still prospered with excellent seasons in those 2 years. Obviously we have had the injury plagued seasons the last two years and this season He has declared himself ready to have a great season. Enter Zeke, Beas, Switz, and Witten. All indications are that Zeke will be used more on the ground this year AND will be catching more passes. I also see Beas and Switz with a high number of catches. There are only so many offensive plays in a game so how the ball is spread around will be based on matchups and game day decisions. All that being said, it is reasonable to project a healthy Dez with 80-85 catches, 1200 yards, and 12 TD’s. But if Dez continues to collect injuries and has another year like the last two it is certainly not unreasonable to assume Dallas could begin looking for a new #1 WR and asking Dez to take a large pay cut or designating him a June 1 cut in 2018. So, perhaps everyone should remove their blue and silver colored glasses and put on your clear view glasses and look at the way NFL teams are run today.

    • https://InsideTheStar.com/ Bryson Treece

      Exactly!

    • Jess Haynie

      Randy, I really appreciate the benefit of the doubt you gave. I know there’s a lot of junk out there, so the fact you saw my name and trusted me means a lot!

  • http://dvqp.ru BeirutWedding

    Dang, dude, buzz kill much? The season hasn’t even started yet!

    Excellent piece and dead on across the board. The one thing I’ll say about last year was that his numbers might have been down but he was a big play guy last year when we needed him to be. Philly, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Detroit. More importantly, he stepped up in the playoff loss. If he stays healthy, Dez creates the balance with Zeke. He doesn’t stretch the field but he knows how to reach that damn end zone.

    By the way, as great as Ware was and he was great, I don’t know that he was better than Harvey Martin. Harvey had 23 sacks the year they beat Denver in the Super Bowl. He was a machine and honestly, should be in the Hall of Fame (not to mention the damn RING OF HONOR.)

  • John Williams

    Very well put together article and argument Jess. Good job asking the hard hitting questions.

    I wonder if a trade would be a possibility next offseason. I would have a hard time letting him go if they didn’t have a way to replace him with a legitimate WR1. Someone who takes the DB focus all over the field. While Cole is really good as a slot receiver, he doesn’t stretch the field to the boundary like Dez does. Not in the deep threat burner way, but in the, we’ve got to account for where Dez goes way.

    Sometimes teams have to make tough decisions.

    I also wonder if they will ask Dez to take a pay cut if he struggles to stay healthy this year.

Player News

Amari Cooper Wins 2nd NFC Offensive Player of the Week Award of 2018

Jess Haynie

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Amari Cooper

For the second time in just three weeks, Dallas Cowboys receiver Amari Cooper has been named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week.

Cooper scored three touchdowns, including the game winner in overtime, to lead the Cowboys to victory last Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles. He has 10 catches for 217 yards, which led all NFL receivers last week.

Dallas Cowboys on Twitter

After his record-setting performance during week 14, @AmariCooper9 is the FIRST #DallasCowboys to win NFC Player of the Week twice in a season! → https://t.co/kvBDIeOgBd #ProBowlVote #ProBowlVote #ProBowlVote #ProBowlVote #ProBowlVote #ProBowlVote

As the official website stated, Cooper is the first Cowboy to win the award twice in the same year. He's also the first Cowboy to be named Offensive Player of the Week since Ezekiel Elliott in 2016.

Before this year, Elliott was the only Dallas player to win the Offensive award in three seasons. Cooper has now done it twice in three weeks.

Since being traded to the Cowboys, Amari Cooper has amassed 40 catches for 642 yards and six touchdowns.

His wasted time in Oakland may keep Cooper out of the Pro Bowl this year, but he's already become a fan favorite in Cowboys Nation. Congratulations to Amari for another well-deserved award!



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Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Playoff Scenarios: Week 15 Impact Games

Jess Haynie

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Making Sense of the "Garrett Guys" Behind Cowboys Dez Bryant Release

It's hard to believe that we're looking at the Dallas Cowboys potentially clinching the NFC East this week, but that's how dramatic the turnaround has been over the last five games. Week 15 could lock Dallas into the playoffs and give them a lot of freedom over their final two games.

If the season ended today, these would be your NFC playoff standings:

  1. New Orleans Saints (11-2)
  2. Los Angeles Rams (11-2)
  3. Chicago Bears (9-4)
  4. Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
  6. Minnesota Vikings (6-6-1)
    ----------------------------------
  7. Carolina Panthers (6-7)
  8. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
  9. Washington Redskins (6-7)

TIEBREAKERS

  • The Cowboys lost to Seattle earlier this year, but still remain the 4th seed as a division winner over a wild card team.
  • The Panthers are ahead of the Eagles thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker.
  • The Eagles are ahead of the Redskins thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker. They play each other again in Week 17.
  • The Redskins beat the Panthers earlier this year, but their loss to Philadelphia within their own division negates that tiebreaker.

In truth, there's not much intrigue left for the Cowboys in this regular season. One win gives them the NFC East, and it would take the Saints or Rams dropping all three of their remaining games for Dallas to have a shot at a top-two seed.

So, barring the nearly impossible, Dallas is locked into either the 3rd or 4th seed. They will host one of the Wild Card teams in the first round of the playoffs.

The biggest thing to watch now is how the seeding shakes among the bottom four playoff teams. The Seahawks seem a cut above the likes of Minnesota, Carolina, or one of our NFC East friends, so avoiding them in the first round would be lovely.

Here are this week's games involving the NFC playoff contenders:

Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts

We've already discussed what the Cowboys need to do, so let's talk about the Colts. Not only do they have home field advantage this week, but they are fighting for their playoff lives.

Indianapolis is one of four teams with a 7-6 record battling for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC playoffs. The Broncos are also in the mix at 6-7, giving none of these teams any cushion for losing.

Dallas has its own incentive to win, though. If they want to avoid Seattle in the first round, they probably need to take the #3 seed from the Chicago Bears. They need to keep winning and hope for the Bears to drop a game or two.

Ultimately, getting into the playoffs and starting at home is a huge reward. But anything that can help make the road a little easier is worth pursuing. It's no time to rest on your laurels.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

As we just discussed, we'd like to see Chicago drop a few games to give Dallas a shot at the #3 seed. This week isn't the worst opportunity, with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay still not completely eliminated from playoff contention.

Expecting much from the Packers here is unwise. They've had a coaching change and appear to be in a state of organizational disarray. But they still have Rodgers, and crazy things always happens in rivalry games.

So while these are two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions, you never know what could happen given the variable elements. By all means, root for the Cheeseheads.

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings

Your rooting interest here comes down to a simple question; who do you prefer to play among that last bunch of Wild Card teams? Who does Dallas match up best against between the Vikings, Panthers, and Eagles?

I think we'd all agree that we don't want to see the Eagles a third time. Beating a team three times in one year is tough to do, and especially given how close last week's meeting was.

The Panthers beat Dallas in the season opener, but that was in Carolina and well before the Cowboys were playing at a high level. A second meeting could go very differently, especially with the recent slumping by the Panthers.

Both Carolina and Minnesota are struggling, with one on a five-game losing streak and the latter having lost their last two. The Vikings just fired their offensive coordinator, so neither of these teams appear to be going into the postseason with any real momentum.

At this point, I'd say it's a toss-up between the Panthers and Vikings. Both are much preferable to seeing the Eagles again, so I would just keep rooting for both to win. In either case, they knock out Philadelphia.

We'll reassess the threat level of Carolina and Minnesota as playoff opponents in a few weeks.

Washington Redskins @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I didn't mention the Redskins among those last three teams because they may not win another game this year. Their QB situation is so bad that even the Jaguars look good by comparison.

Granted, Jacksonville is lousy right now. Washington might be able to go down there and get a win, but neither team has anything to play for now. This one may come down to whether or not the Jaguars have gone into tank mode.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Seattle just walloped the Niners 43-16 a couple of weeks ago, and changing venues is unlikely to make that much difference. The Seahawks are a legit NFC contender and San Francisco is already thinking about the offseason. A Seattle loss would be great, but it ain't happening this week.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams

While catching the Rams and getting a top-two seed would be great, it's barely plausible. The far more concrete benefit here is seeing the Eagles lose and getting them further away from a possible Wild Card spot.

In fact, an Eagles' loss this week would give Dallas the NFC East even if the Cowboys fall in  Indianapolis. That's not the way we want to win the division, but you take what you can get.

With the breaking news that Carson Wentz is unlikely to play this week with a back injury, you'd generally think this suits the Cowboys' interests. But Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles is still the backup in Philadelphia, so is anything really for certain?

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

We have every reason to root for Carolina here. For one, it helps the Panthers stay ahead of the Eagles in the Wild Card race. Also, it brings the Saints one loss closer to possibly being caught by Dallas. A Saints win doesn't really benefit us all.



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Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott has Huge Day vs Eagles Thanks to Receiving Prowess

John Williams

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Ezekiel Elliott has Huge Day vs Eagles Thanks to Receiving Prowess

The Dallas Cowboys came away with a huge win against their division rival Philadelphia Eagles, putting them in a commanding position in the NFC East. They're up two games in the division and one of the more underrated story lines from the victory is Ezekiel Elliott's game. He had a huge day that no one is talking about.

Elliott had 28 carries for 113 yards and then caught 12 passes on 13 targets en route to his big performance in the 29-23 win over the Eagles. That's probably the quietest 40 touch, 192 total yard game you'll ever hear about. And yet, that's where we are. Please read that stat line again, because in all of our talk about Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, and the defense, Ezekiel Elliott's stat line is absolutely ridiculous.

The receiving element that Elliott is providing the biggest difference to the offense this season. He's been a huge asset to Dak Prescott in the passing game as both a primary target and a check down option in the short part of the field. If Elliott isn't showing that he's the best running back in the league, with what he's doing with a broke down offensive line, then people will never give him the credit he's due.

For the last three years, the Dallas Cowboys and their fan base has known what an elite player the Cowboys have in Elliott. He's easily one of the best runners in the NFL, but if you talk to the general NFL fanbase or analysts around the league, Elliott doesn't get the same kind of love as players like Todd Gurley and Le'Veon Bell receive from the national media. The knock against Elliott has been that he doesn't bring the same value as a receiver. With what he has done over the last six weeks, and really all season long, it's safe to say, that won't be a knock against the Cowboys All-Pro running back.

Among running backs this season, Ezekiel Elliott ranks sixth in targets (77), fifth in receptions (65). seventh in yards (502), and is tied for 12th in receiving touchdowns with three. Elliott is the seventh highest rated running back when targeted among running backs with at least 50 targets this season.

Over the last six weeks, since the Amari Cooper trade, only Christian McCaffrey has more targets, receptions, and yards than Ezekiel Elliott.

Elliott's previous career high was in 2016 when he caught 32 passes on 39 targets. With three games left in the season, Elliott has more than doubled his previous career high from that season. Over the last six weeks, he's caught 40 passes with an average of 6.7 receptions per game.

Ezekiel Elliott is on pace for his best total yardage season in the NFL. If he continues at his current per game averages, Elliott would finish the season with 330 carries for 1,553 rushing yards, 80 catches on 100 targets for 618 yards and 10 total touchdowns. He's been great this year, but he's been even better over the last six games. At his per game averages for the last six games, over a 16 game season, Elliott's numbers would look like this; 363 carries for 1,715 yards rushing, 107 receptions on 120 targets for 872 yards, and 13 total touchdowns.

It's rare that Ezekiel Elliott has a game like he did on Sunday and it goes largely unnoticed by Cowboys Nation, but that's just how tremendous Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper were. In a game where the Cowboys got big games and big plays through the passing game, it was Elliott's steadiness that held things together and helped sustain drives like the fourth and one conversion in overtime. Even with Amari Cooper elevating his game since coming to the Cowboys, there's no question that Ezekiel Elliott is the Cowboys best skill position player. Expect more big games for Elliott as the Cowboys continue to "Feed Zeke."



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