Despite being familiar with the offense, I do not foresee Matt Cassel being the backup to Brandon Weeden this week.
Ronald Leary practicing this week is an indication that he will indeed return to Left Guard. Mackenzy Bernadeau did not play well last week - La'el Collins outperformed him - making the decision to sit Bernadeau easy.
If the Cowboys do indeed go this route, Zack Martin would be the emergency Center if anything were to happen to Travis Frederick. At this point, I am much more comfortable with Collins in the lineup if Leary is unable to play.
Cowboys Offense vs Atlanta Defense
I will be completely honest, I am not blown away by the Atlanta Falcons on defense. Yes, the Cowboys offense needs Brandon Weeden to make enough plays to keep Atlanta off the line of scrimmage. If Weeden is able to do that, I don't feel their defense will be able to effectively stop the run.
If Ronald Leary and James Hanna are healthy, the running game will have the opportunity to get going. The Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants ran the ball for a combined 4.1 yards per carry through two games against Atlanta. After studying the Eagles and Giants - especially after watching them against the Cowboys defense - neither team is currently good at running the ball.
This should be the week that Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden show patience, as the holes will develop, giving both the opportunity to wear down the Falcons defense. I will reiterate; while the Falcons have not given up a lot of rushing yards, they are far from a good rushing defense.
A lot has been made of the Falcons first round draft pick, Vic Beasley. I'm not sure why; his quality performance last week largely came against Ereck Flowers.
At best, Flowers is an average Pass Blocking Left Tackle, simply not having the feet to stop the NFL's best pass rushers. Beasley was virtually quiet against Jason Peters of the Eagles, which makes me believe there is little worry that Tyron Smith will struggle against him.
Atlanta's best opportunity to get Beasley going is to have him rush on the left side against Free, which I could see the Falcons doing on several occasions throughout the game. Personally, I would run at Beasley all game, especially if Leary is in the starting lineup.
The Cowboys receivers will have to win their matchups against the Falcons Secondary.
Cole Beasley should have a favorable match up against Phillip Adams, and Jason Witten should have room to operate between the hash marks. Lance Dunbar should be able to get into some favorable matchups as well.
Be on the lookout for a deep ball in the direction of Brice Butler. He has the speed to stretch the defense vertically and is the Cowboys' best deep-threat. Most of all, Terrance Williams will have to help Brandon Weeden. If he sees a lot of single coverage, he needs to defeat his man and become a reliable outlet for Weeden.
Hopefully, we do not see Weeden live by the check-down. He has to remain confident in routes developing downfield. The Falcons secondary is not one that will be able to blanket the Cowboys skill players.
Key Match Up: Brandon Weeden vs Falcons Secondary
I strongly believe the Offensive Line will be able to provide Brandon Weeden with enough time to press the ball down the field. The key question being...
Will he be able to?
He has shown the ability, but his play in Cleveland and last year against Arizona does leave some doubts.
Falcons Head Coach Dan Quinn's defenses are known for their ability to get pressure, but I feel he will need to blitz in order to get home against the Cowboys. This is when Weeden needs to hurt the Falcons. If he is able to do that, the Cowboys will keep the Falcons on their heels the entire game.
Weeden cannot afford to stare down receivers and allow the Falcons Secondary to break on the ball - he will have to be safe but not conservative - if he is intelligent with his reads the Secondary will break down, giving him the opportunity to make the passing game an effective weapon.
The success of the offense on Sunday rests in the hands of Brandon Weeden.
Cowboys Defense vs Falcons Offense
The Falcons offense is running the ball for 2.8 yards per carry and that was before their starting Running Back Tevin Coleman popped up on the injury report this week. Quinn subtly challenged Coleman to play through his cracked ribs but in all likelihood, Coleman will not play on Sunday. The Cowboys have been simply dominant against the run, nothing the Falcons have shown lead me to believe this will change on Sunday.
If the Falcons become one dimensional, it will be on the Cowboys to deal with Roddy White and Julio Jones.
Leonard Hankerson isn't much of a worry in my mind. Tyler Patmon has shown he is more than capable of shutting down a slot receiver. Also, Byron Jones has shown he can blanket bigger threats at Tight End than Jacob Tamme, so that should also be a matchup in the defense's favor.
Rod Marinelli will adjust his coverages to not allow the Falcons to hit Jones on bubble screens all game. The Falcons have shown they have a hot-read available if a Corner Back is giving Jones a cushion of 7 yards are more. Marinelli is wise to this and will mix his coverages on Jones to prevent him changing the tide of this game.
Whoever is not covering Jones will have to make sure they play with sound technique against White, as the Falcons will look to get him the ball. Last week was the first time he did not catch a pass since 2006. He gave the correct media response to reporters, though one has to believe he let his Quarterback and Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan know about it.
Matt Ryan will more than likely give the Cowboys secondary several opportunities to make plays on the ball. Brandon Carr and Tyler Patmon have both failed to capitalize on their chances to Intercept the ball thus far, but this is a game where the defense needs to force some turnovers.
Key Match Up: Cowboys Defensive Line vs Falcons Offensive Line
The Falcons are getting the ball out of Ryan's hand quickly, yet that doesn't mean it's impossible to get pressure on him. Tyrone Crawford, Jeremy Mincey, and DeMarcus Lawrence will all have to put pressure on Ryan throughout the game.
If the Defensive Line disrupts Ryan the Secondary will have a great opportunity to limit Jones and the Falcons' passing attack.
The Falcons have shown to be a good pass-blocking team early this season; I want to see how that holds up if Ryan's first read is not available to him and he is forced to hold the ball longer.
I believe we will see Sean Lee blitz several times during the game, just to give the Falcons a different look. Anything to disrupt Matt Ryan's rhythm will be welcomed, although I believe the gameplan will be to get pressure by rushing four for most of the game.
Slight Advantage Falcons
Special Teams Match Up
Chris Jones, Dan Bailey, Danny McCray, Kyle Wilber, Jeff Heath, and the rest of the Special Teams unit have been lights-out through two games.
While there has not been a big punt return, the team seems to like Beasley as their returner. Devin Hester looks to be out again this week, taking away a huge Special Teams threat.
Atlanta has given up an average of 13 yards per punt return, compared to only 5.8 per return for Dallas. There is an opportunity for a big return against the Falcons and Rich Bisaccia will have the unit ready to capitalize on this opportunity.
Strong Advantage Cowboys
I have a feeling that Brandon Weeden will play well enough for the Cowboys to win.
The defense is playing extremely well, the team has remained confident despite injuries, and the Falcons are not an overwhelming matchup. Weeden and the offense will have plenty of opportunities to make plays, which they will indeed make enough to keep the Atlanta defense on the field.
This will be the best running game for the Cowboys this season. The Falcons look extremely vulnerable with their run defense, while their pass defense has also been far from stellar.
Julio Jones will be limited, forcing the Falcons offense to have issues finishing drives and staying on the field. They haven't shown the ability to run, which will allow the Cowboys to almost entirely focus on shutting down the air attack.
I expect Matt Ryan to have at least one Interception, while Weeden limits his mistakes and is a reason that the Cowboys win this game.
The Way Of Smooth
Brandon Weeden has the opportunity to prove all of his detractors wrong. He doesn't even have to play like a top-tier Quarterback; he just has to perform like he his competent. Matt Cassel won't stay on the bench for many games if Weeden shows he cannot handle the pressure.
This is also an opportunity to make himself a good deal of money - he is in a contract year - it's in his best interest to play well during Tony Romo's absence. If he performs poorly, it is not farfetched to believe his career may be over.
Every fan of the Dallas Cowboys should hope Weeden performs well, keeping the Cowboys in playoff contention until Romo is able to return. A win this week would be huge, allowing the Cowboys to remain two games up in the NFC East.
Get behind Brandon Weeden. His success is in our best interest.
Do Or Die: Chidobe Awuzie Must Improve Sunday, Or Cowboys Season Could End
Coming into the season there was a lot of hype surrounding the Dallas Cowboys' cornerbacks. With Byron Jones moving from safety full time, and now second year player Chidobe Awuzie playing opposite Jones after a promising rookie season, there was a lot for Cowboys fans to be excited about.
Through the first 10 weeks of the year, though, only one of those two has maintained fans' excitement. While Byron Jones has been arguably the best cornerback in all of football, Chidobe Awuzie has been damn-near an automatic completion when thrown at.
Awuzie has a -5.8 coverage rating this season, 65th among cornerbacks in the NFL. Coverage rating is a metric which factors in how often a cornerback is targeted as well as how many passes they've defensed per target. Quarterbacks also have a 116.6 passer rating when targeting Awuzie, compared to just 64.5 when targeting Byron Jones. For comparisons sake, Jones' coverage rating is a +45! So you can see why "cornerback opposite of Jones" is becoming a need for the Cowboys.
What's perplexing about Awuzie's season, though, is that he is only giving up an average 0.95 yards of separation, 27th in the league (courtesy of playerprofiler.com). So while Awuzie is playing relatively sticky coverage, he's still being targeted often, and he's still allowing completions way too often.
This week, Chidobe Awuzie will be tested once again, this time by the dynamic passing game of the Atlanta Falcons. The match-up many fans are focusing on is that between Byron Jones and Julio Jones, but how Awuzie does against Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu may play a bigger factor in the result.
Both Ridley and Sanu are solid supporting receivers, and considering how much attention the defense typically has to pay to Julio Jones, they tend to get man coverage often. This allows for a precise route runner like Ridley to take advantage of opportunities, and come away with the types of big plays we've seen from him this year.
When matched up with either of these weapons, Awuzie will need to continue to stay close, but play and defense the ball better. He must continue to make it hard on these receivers and force them into contested catches, but hopefully he can improve on his play when the ball gets to the catch point.
Sunday will be another big test for the Cowboys' young defense. And as well as they have played most weeks, this game has the potential to be a season ender if certain guys do not step up. One of those guys who will certainly play a key role in influencing the result in Chidobe Awuzie.
Cowboys Defense Faces Tough Matchup vs Falcons Passing Attack
When you're a 4-5 team in the NFL with preseason expectations of making the playoffs, the last half of the season has a lot of of must-win games. This week is no different. The Dallas Cowboys face another 4-5 team in the Atlanta Falcons who is also looking to keep their playoff hopes alive. Both teams are still in the hunt, but have slightly different paths to get there. The Dallas Cowboys would probably have to win the NFC East to make the playoffs with the Falcons only real chance coming via the wild card. The New Orleans Saints look to be the kings of the NFC South this season.
In order to stay in the hunt, the Dallas Cowboys are going to need a huge defensive effort against a fierce Atlanta Falcons passing game. Through the first nine games, the Cowboys have provided reason for optimism that they can slow down Matt Ryan and company, but they've also had some porous efforts this season.
The front seven of the defense has played pretty well through the first nine games of the season and Byron Jones has been one of the best corner backs in the league. They've had problems on the left sde of the defense with Chidobe Awuzie and with the safeties.
The Cowboys will face a really difficult challenge as they travel to face the Atlanta Falcons passing game led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.
Matt Ryan is in the top five in most passing categories including yards, touchdowns, passer rating, completion percentage, and leads the league in passing yards per game. In yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, and air yards per attempt, Matt Ryan is sixth in the NFL.
As you can see from the chart above provided by Next Gen Stats and NFL.com, Matt Ryan has been average to better than average throwing to every area of the field this season. Particularly troubling is what he's doing when he's throwing to his right, which happens to be the side of the field occupied by Chidobe Awuzie. Awuzie is allowing a passer rating of 129.7 this season, which is the 15th worst number in the NFL among corners who have played a minimum of 92 coverage snaps.
What's potentially more troubling than how efficient Matt Ryan's been throwing to Awuzie's side of the field is the fact that Julio Jones will play all over the formation and can beat you in every area of the field.
The chances are high that we'll see Awuzie lined up against Julio Jones on several occasions on Sunday. Pray for Chido, y'all.
Jones has only scored two touchdowns this year, but through nine games, he's already over 1,000 yards receiving, which is leading the NFL. Julio is fourth in the NFL in receptions and is averaging more than 15 yards per catch. He's third in the NFL in yards per route run at 2.99 sitting behind only Michael Thomas and Albert Wilson among players with at least 20 targets on the season.
From Jones' chart against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week six, you can see that they lined him up all over the formation and they ran him on a large variety of routes to a large variety of depths. Julio Jones is one of the best route runners in the NFL, which is scary considering he provides huge size and athleticism to go with it.
As good as he's been this season, the secondary receivers for the Falcons -- Calvin Ridley, Mohammed Sanu, and Austin Hooper -- have also played well. Each of them has more than 400 yards receiving on the season. To put that in perspective, Cole Beasley leads the Dallas Cowboys in receiving yards at 403. Each of the Falcons' top four targets have more receiving yards than Beasley does.
Not sure if that speaks of how good the Falcons passing game has been or how bad the Cowboys passing game has been.
The Cowboys will be facing the player that fans wanted the team to select instead of Leighton Vander Esch at 19th overall; Calvin Ridley. Ridley's been excellent this season with 500 receiving yards and seven touchdown receptions. He's averaging 13.2 yards per reception. Ridley's second on the Falcons in receptions for first downs and Matt Ryan has a passer rating of 138.9 when targeting Ridley.
Austin Hooper doesn't get the same publicity that Jones and Ridley do, but he's been effective this season as well. Hooper is second on the Falcons in receptions with 46, which is the fourth most among tight ends in the NFL. Hooper will test Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch in the middle of the field as well as Xavier Woods and Jeff Heath down the seem.
Mohammed Sanu will be the matchup to watch for Anthony Brown in the slot. Though Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones will run routes from there on occasion, Sanu is the primary slot receiver. He ranks 22nd in the NFL in receptions and yards from the slot. Of his 45 targets, 33 have come while in the slot and 25 of his 34 receptions. When Matt Ryan throws Sanu's way, he's got a passer rating of 125.8.
And if all that wasn't bad enough, you have the Dallas Cowboys defense as one of the worst in the NFL at getting off the field on third down. The Atlanta Falcons are second in the NFL at getting off the field on third down.
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The Dallas Cowboys are likely going to give up some long drives to the Falcons, and that's ok. What they don't want to do is give up big plays to the Falcons passing attack. The Cowboys rank sixth in the NFL in red zone defense allowing teams to score on only 48.1% of their trips inside the 20 yard line. The Falcons are seventh in the league at scoring in the red zone, but have had their issues scoring touchdowns when getting inside the 20. If the Cowboys can hold them to three instead of seven, I'll count it as a successful drive for the defense.
The Dallas Cowboys defense is playing really well this season and it ranks in the top 10 in most team defensive categories. However, if they have a weakness it's been in their pass defense, primarily Awuzie and the safeties. If they want to win this game and continue to get themselves back into the playoff picture, they're going to need better performances from their defensive backs not named Byron Jones, Anthony Brown, and to a lesser extent Xavier Woods.
Facing the Atlanta Falcons prolific passing attack is a huge test for this defense and one that could define the rest of the Dallas Cowboys 2018 season.
Cowboys’ Revenge Against Atlanta Hinges on These 3 Key Matchups
With their seasons hanging in the balance, the Dallas Cowboys (4-5) and the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) know all too well the importance of this matchup. The Cowboys however might have a little extra incentive to win this game, revenge. The Falcons absolutely throttled them in 2017, but Dallas is looking to turn the tables on them this year.
Playing in hostile territory at Mercedes-Benz Stadium isn't the ideal place to secure a victory, but I believe the Dallas Cowboys have a excellent shot at coming out of this contest with a "W". This time around the Cowboys will have Ezekiel Elliott and Tyron Smith at their disposal and they should pay huge dividends. Having these two players in the lineup will certainly factor into the outcome of the game, but there are other matchups worth keeping an eye on as well.
Here are the three matchups I believe will decide the outcome of this game:
Amari Cooper vs. Falcons' Secondary
If the Atlanta Falcons secondary continues to play the way they've played for the majority of the 2018 season, the Dallas Cowboys should be able to find quite a bit of success in the passing game. That's why I'm expecting Quarterback Dak Prescott and his receivers to have a big game, especially Amari Cooper.
The Falcons are surprisingly giving up 294.4 passing yards a game, which happens to be third worst in the NFL. But what's more surprising is they are also the worst at defending their opponents best receiver, ranking 30th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). That's why I think Amari Cooper could end up having his best game to date in a Cowboys uniform.
Cooper's ability to threaten an opponent's defense all over the field has already made the Cowboys offense better and that should continue to improve as his bond with Prescott develops. He has already become one of the most highly targeted WRs in the NFL since coming to Dallas and that is not only helping improve their passing game, but the running game as well.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Falcons' Run Defense
As much as I'm excited about the damage Amari Cooper could do to the Falcons secondary, I'm even more excited about how dominate Ezekiel Elliott can be against Atlanta's defensive front. A lot of that has to do with the way both of these teams played in these areas a week ago, and it's a matchup that heavily favors the Cowboys.
The Cowboys are coming off their best rushing attack of the 2018 season. The offensive line completely manhandled the Philadelphia Eagles top ranked run defense last week, allowing Zeke to rush for 150+ yards. We could see a repeat performance, especially with the way the Falcons failed to stop the run last week against the Cleveland Browns.
Rookie Running Back Nick Chubb had a career day against the Falcons a week ago, amassing 176 yards and a touchdown on the ground and another 33 yards and a touchdown through the air. If that's an indication of what we can expect from Atlanta's run defense, Zeke should have a huge game. Controlling the clock with the running game would more than likely secure a much-needed victory.
Cowboys' Defense vs. Falcons' 3rd-down Offense
As good as a Dallas Cowboys defense has been this season, they have really struggled to get opposing offenses off the field on third down. In fact, they're currently the fourth worst third-down defense in the league, allowing offenses to convert a first down 44.07% of the time. That's not good, especially if you factor in that the Falcons convert 51.26% of their third downs, ranking second in the NFL.
The matchup between the Cowboys defense and the Falcons third-down offense could end up being the most important. Dallas absolutely have to find a way to get Matt Ryan and his offense off the field and the ball back in the hands of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. They can't allow Atlanta to get out to an early lead, because they're not a team who's built to come from behind.
Hopefully the Cowboys can capitalize on the Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott match ups (previously mentioned), that way they're play on third-down becomes less of a factor. But if it ends up being a close game, they will without a doubt have to improve their third-down defensive efficiency.
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