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The Genius Of Tony Romo’s Contract For The Dallas Cowboys

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Cowboys Blog - Tony Romo and the Statistical Argument, Not the Answers

Last year, Tony Romo received a new contract, and it was trumpeted that he signed a 6 year, $108 million contract extension that pays him $18 million per season.  Many people were upset.  Also, many people are still upset because it seems that the Cowboys are killing themselves in future seasons by constantly restructuring Romo’s deal.

What I want to explain is why that is the wrong way to look at Romo’s contract.  In fact, Romo’s contract is a masterpiece of financial planning, and Stephen Jones deserves a lot of credit for helping provide financial stability for the Cowboys at the starting QB position for the foreseeable future.

Let me explain…

Although it was reported that Romo’s contract was a 6 year deal, in fact, it was a 7 year contract.  Here are the official numbers.

  •  Official length and size:  7 yrs, $119.5 million, $25 million signing bonus, $55 million guaranteed

Breakout:

  • $25 million in bonus paid up front.
  • (Age 33) 2013 Salary - $1.5 million + $5 million prorated bonus
  • (Age 34) 2014 Salary - $13.5 million + $5 million prorated bonus
  • (Age 35) 2015 Salary - $17 million + $5 million prorated bonus
  • (Age 36) 2016 Salary - $8.5 million + $5 million prorated bonus
  • (Age 37) 2017 Salary - $14 million + $5 million prorated bonus
  • (Age 38) 2018 Salary - $19.5 million
  • (Age 39) 2019 Salary - $20.5 million

So, let's dive into the analysis of this contract.

  • Average Salary over first 3 years - $19 million per season
  • Average Salary over first 4 years - $16.375 million per season
  • Average Salary over first 5 years - $15.9 million per season
  • Average Salary over entire 7 years - $17.07 million per season

The first thing that jumps out at me is the Big drop in Salary in the 4th year of the contract.  The second thing that jumps out at me is that the last 2 years of the contract are for $40 million with no prorated signing bonuses.

So, if you look at the contract from the standpoint of being a 5 year contract, then the Cowboys are paying an average of less than $16 million per year, which is exactly what I thought was the right market price for Romo at this point in his career.

I suggested several times last year that the Cowboys would give Romo a 5 year, $80 million contract with a $25 million signing bonus, and about $48 million guaranteed.  In other words, the first 3 years of the contract would be guaranteed.  Well, in fact, if you drop off the last 2 years with the $40 million in salary that Romo is unlikely to see, what Romo got was a 5 yr. contract for $79.5 million, a $25 million bonus, and $55 million guaranteed.  I was over by $500K on the total amount, and under by $7 million on the guarantee.

But if you look even closer, this contract becomes even more CAP friendly for the Cowboys.  It is quite obvious that the Cowboys plan to Restructure Romo's salary in both years 2 & 3 of his contract, and possibly in years 4 & 5.

This year the Cowboys had a CAP number of $22,836,333 for Romo.  But after restructuring his contract next year, he will get about a $12.5 million Restructure bonus with a $1 million salary. That will lower his CAP hit this year by $10 million.  Next year, in 2015, the Cowboys are likely to restructure Romo's contract a 2nd time, giving him say a $2 million salary, and a $15 million Restructure Bonus.  That will lower his CAP hit in 2015 by $12 million - another big way for the Cowboys to save money on the CAP.

Then, in 2016, Romo's contract drops to $8.5 million.  The Cowboys could choose not to restructure his contract that season. With Romo playing the 2016 season at the age of 36, the Cowboys can choose to cut ties with Romo anytime after 2016 and still walk away with a good deal.

After restructuring his contract in 2014 and 2015, here is what the actual breakout will look more like:

Breakout:

  • $25 million in bonus paid up front in 2013
  • (Age 33) 2013 Salary - $1.5 million + $5 million prorated bonus = $6.5 million CAP hit
  • $12.5 million Restructure bonus paid in 2014
  • (Age 34) 2014 Salary - $1 million + $7.5 million prorated bonus = $8.5 million CAP hit
  • $15 million Restructure bonus paid in 2015
  • (Age 35) 2015 Salary - $2 million + $10.5 million prorated bonus = $12.5 million CAP hit
  • (Age 36) 2016 Salary - $8.5 million + $10.5 million prorated bonus = $19 million CAP hit
  • (Age 37) 2017 Salary - $14 million + $10.5 million prorated bonus = $24.5 million CAP hit
  • (Age 38) 2018 Salary - $19.5 million + $5.5 million prorated bonus = $24.5 million CAP hit
  • (Age 39) 2019 Salary - $20.5 million + $3 million prorate bonus = $23.5 million CAP hit.

The Cowboys can cut Romo at age 37 prior to the 2018 season, and only take a $8.5 million DEAD Money CAP hit in 2018.  If you consider that they will likely be paying a new QB on his Rookie contract in that year, taking that CAP hit will be easy to swallow.


Also, if the Cowboys decide to draft a rookie QB in 2015 or 2016, and let him sit for 1-2 years behind Romo, then theoretically the Cowboys can start the 2017 season with at least 2 years left on his Rookie contract.  The Cowboys could designate Romo a June 1st cut, and then take a $10.5 million CAP hit in 2017, and another $8.5 million CAP hit in 2018 while the salary of the new Cowboys QB is still relatively low.

What this means is that the Cowboys have arranged a contract with Romo, that when combined with the rookie contract of a new QB picked in 2015 or 2016, will not cost them more than $19 million per season for the next 6 years.

That, my friends is a very, very well written contract.  Romo get's 4 years to make it work at an average salary of just over $16 million per season - well below the rate the top QB's are getting.  The Cowboys get a contract guaranteed to cost them no more than $19 million per season against the Salary CAP for the starting QB.

(Note:  This does NOT include $14.6 million the Salary CAP hits for Romo's previous contract that are spread over the next 4 seasons.  The Analysis above was strictly for Romo's new contract.)

Now, instead of looking at it from the perspective of an individual player, let’s look at it from the perspective of a General Manager.  If I’m the General Manager, what I want is Salary CAP stability at the starting QB position.  At a time when franchise QB’s are getting paid at a rate of $20 million per year or more, can I reduce that obligation and at the same time, get quality play at the QB position at a reduced rate?

Here is the real deal.  Romo was already scheduled to make $11.5 million in 2013.  If you consider that his contract is ACTUALLY a 4 year deal for $65.5 million, that means that the Cowboys tacked on 3 more years for $54 million - an average of 18 million per season.

Here is where you have to just sit back and appreciate the Genius of the structure of the contract that the Cowboys got Romo to sign.

  1. Assume the Cowboys restructure Romo's $13.5 million salary in 2014 into a $12.5 million signing bonus + $1 million salary.
  2. Assume the Cowboys restructure Romo's $17.0 million salary in 2015 into a $15.0 million signing bonus + $2 million salary.
  3. Assume the Cowboys restructure Romo's $8.5 million salary in 2016 into a $6 million signing bonus + $2.5 million salary.
  4. Assume the Cowboys draft a new young QB in 2016 to replace Orton as the Backup who will learn as Romo’s backup for for 1 season.  The Cowboys draft this kid late in the 1st or early in the 2nd round, and pay him a contract in the range of $8 million over 4 years - an average of $2 million per season.
  5. Assume the Cowboys cut Romo in 2017, but designate him a June 1st cut.

Here are how those moves, along with the new contract Romo just signed, affects the Cowboys salary CAP over the next 6 seasons.

  • 2013 - Romo CAP hit - $6.5 million + $5,318,333 Old Bonus CAP hit (OBCH) = $11,818,833 Total CAP hit
  • 2014 - Romo CAP hit - $8.5 million + $4,336,333 OBCH = $12,836,333 Total CAP hit
  • 2015 - Romo CAP hit - $12.5 million +$3,273,000 OBCH = $15,773,000 Total CAP hit
  • 2016 - Romo CAP hit - $14.5 million +$1,635,000 OBCH = $16,135,000 Total CAP hit
  • 2017 - Romo DEAD money CAP hit - $12.0 million + New QB Salary - $2 million = $14 million Total CAP hit
  • 2018 - Romo DEAD money CAP hit - $11.5 million + New QB Salary - $2 million = $13.5 million Total CAP hit
  • 2019 - Negotiate new Contract for New QB based on performance.

What the Cowboys have done with this contract is guarantee that they will have a very friendly Salary CAP number for the Starting QB for the next 6 years.

Also, the DEAD money for Romo's bonuses in 2017 and 2018 prevent the Cowboys from spending that money on other players - ensuring that they have the CAP space to sign the new QB they draft in 2016 without having to cut a bunch of guys in 2019.  Essentially, the DEAD money acts as a place-holder reserving that part of the CAP for the starting QB in the past and in the future for those 2 seasons.

Genius, I tell you.  Just Genius.  I am in admiration of Stephen Jones.


Engineer, writer and private NFL analyst, he began developing his own statistical analysis program in 1998 to measure and predict the performance of NFL teams. Scott is also a self-taught expert on the NFL salary CAP, analyzing how Cowboys contracts affect the team this year and in future seasons. Mr. Harris' skill lies in digging inside the numbers to explain which statistical measurements matter, and which do not. Mr. Harris developed his skill at writing for his college newspaper, and had his own politically oriented blog for several years. A passionate fan of the Cowboys, Scott uses his skill with numbers and writing to provide a unique viewpoint of the Cowboys and the NFL as a whole. He is a native of the DFW metroplex and currently resides in Golden, Colorado designing environmental controls systems for data centers, high rise buildings, college campuses, and government bases.

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Star Blog

Dallas Cowboys’ Starters Don’t Need to Play in Preseason “Dress Rehearsal”

John Williams

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Do the Dallas Cowboys Have a Sean Lee Backup Plan?

The third game of the preseason has long been considered the "dress rehearsal" game for NFL teams. It's the game where teams generally played their starters for at least a half and sometimes into the second half so that coaches and players could practice communicating adjustments during half time. With the conversation about the future of the preseason focused on reducing the number of exhibition games teams play, it's time for the Dallas Cowboys to follow several other teams and sit their starters and principle role players for the third preseason game.

The Los Angeles Rams, among other teams, have made a conscious decision not to play their starters in the third preseason game for several years under Head Coach Sean McVay. And if you look back at how they've handled the preseason this offseason, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, haven't played a single snap. They also haven't played Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, or Cooper Kupp. The Rams have been one of the best offensive teams in the NFL but haven't played their primary skill position players in the preseason in two years.

The Dallas Cowboys and every other team in the NFL can take a lesson. But based on a report from Todd Archer of ESPN, the Dallas Cowboys have different plans. Even planning to play the oft-injured Sean Lee this weekend.

Todd Archer on Twitter

Linebacker Sean Lee has practiced the last three days, and anticipates he will play Saturday at least some against the Houston Texans. Lee suffered a slightly sprained medial collateral ligament in the first padded practice while in Oxnard, California,... https://t.co/zZ4KNvWdua

Why?

There's very little reason at this point to play your starters and risk injuries that could derail what the Dallas Cowboys hope is a Super Bowl run. Jason Garrett's an old school coach from an older way of thinking that believes it's important to get those reps against live competition. To an extent, it is important to work on things against a team that doesn't know you as well as your own players. On the other hand, does the benefit outweigh the risk?

Last night, with the Carolina Panthers facing the New England Patriots in their third preseason game, Cam Newton took several big hits that led to him having to leave the game with a foot or ankle injury. Now, for Carolina's sake, they better hope it's a minor thing that will heal with some rest, because if Cam Newton has to miss an extended period of time, they can go ahead and write off the 2019 season, especially in the NFC South.


With as effective as the first-team offense has looked in the first two preseason games, does it make sense to risk Dak Prescott or one of the other starters on offense to injury in order to get them more live competition?

The offensive line is already ailing a bit with Tyron Smith missing last week's matchup with the Los Angeles Rams due to yet another back issue. Zack Martin sat out the game in Hawaii as well with a bulging disc in his back that has held him out of practice as well. It's unlikely that either of these guys will play Saturday night along with any of the other players dealing with injuries right now. However, what's the point of playing the guys who aren't injured.

Sure, this game could give Dak Prescott and Michael Gallup some more reps to work on their chemistry or snaps for Travis Frederick and Jason Witten to get in game shape after a year layoff. However, there's so much more to be lost than gained if one of the starters or primary role-players is injured in this game. Prescott and Gallup have looked great in practice. Frederick and Witten will work into game shape.

You can't play football worried about players getting hurt, but you can save your risk-taking for a time when the games actually matter to your win-loss ledger. Let the back half of your 90 man roster get all the snaps they can get in this game and the next. Perhaps those extra snaps help the coaching staff separate those players on the bubble for the 53-man roster.

Though we will watch the game Saturday night to see what those Dallas Cowboys who do play are able to accomplish against the Houston Texans, we will be watching with bated breath. Hoping that the Dallas Cowboys don't suffer an injury that could derail their chances of contending for a Super Bowl.


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Cowboys en Español: Extensión de Jaylon, Pronóstico Para Elliott

Mauricio Rodriguez

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Jaylon Smith Isn't Worried About Future Contract Extension

Los Dallas Cowboys han sido uno de los equipos más importantes a seguir este offseason. ¿El motivo? Tres super estrellas en espera de extensiones de contrato. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott y Amari Cooper han sido el enfoque para medios y aficionados cuando se trata del equipo de Jerry Jones. Sin embargo, ninguno de ellos fue el primero en llegar un acuerdo con el equipo. El linebacker Jaylon Smith consiguió llevarse la primera rebanada del pastel.

Jaylon Smith se ha perfilado como uno de los mejores linebackers en toda la NFL después de una excelente temporada en 2018. Al recordar su historia, es increíble ver hasta donde ha llegado. Fue en 2016 cuando, jugando su último partido de football universitario con Notre Dame, el linebacker sufrió una lesión de rodilla lo suficientemente seria para poner en duda si volvería a jugar en su vida. Quien hubiera sido probablemente una de las primeras cinco selecciones en su respectivo NFL Draft, terminó cayendo hasta la segunda ronda, donde los Cowboys terminaron su desliz y lo llamaron a Dallas sabiendo que podría tardar hasta más de un año en regresar al campo.

Sean's Scout: Jaylon Smith Returns Cowboys to NFC East Prominence in Win Over Bucs

Después de perderse la campaña del 2016, en 2017 fue apresurado al emparrillado y a pesar de verse prometedor, no brilló tanto como lo hizo el año pasado. Estando completamente sano, Smith se lució como el linebacker central de la defensiva de los Cowboys que sorprendió a toda la liga. Realmente vimos a la fuerza que todos esperaban ver de su parte cuando era un prospecto de Notre Dame.

Ahora, firma una extensión de contrato que realmente es amigable con el equipo. Después de un offseason en el que Bobby Wagner (Seahawks) recibió 18 millones de dólares en promedio al año y C.J. Mosley 17, el valor de Smith pudo haber estado alrededor de los 15. Sin embargo, el promedio de la extensión de 5 años de Jaylon es de 12.8.

Jaylon Smith al parecer le dio un descuento al equipo que creyó en el cuando su carrera era un signo de interrogación. Los Cowboys aseguran un gran talento para el futuro, y otro defensivo en torno a quien pueden construir una defensiva para el largo plazo. Tanto la directiva como el jugador se merecen un fuerte aplauso por esta noticia.


There's no Need to Panic About Ezekiel Elliott's Holdout

Mientras tanto, rumores sobre la situación de Ezekiel Elliott continúan. La historia, por el momento, sigue siendo la misma. Zeke no se ha reportado con el equipo y está de vuelta en Cabo después de haber viajado (e ilusionado a muchos fans en el proceso) a Dallas hace unos días.

Muchos se han dado a la tarea de entrar en pánico, pero yo los invito a que tomen un fuerte respiro. Sí, la temporada regular está muy cerca. Sin duda, Elliott estará en forma pero el no haber trabajado con el equipo en training camp podría resultar en el corredor super estrella tardando un poco en adaptarse.

Habiendo dicho eso, me sorprendería mucho si Zeke se pierde un segundo de temporada regular. Jeff Darlington, reportero de ESPN, comentó al aire que su predicción era que Elliott se reportará para la semana 1 y no podría estar más de acuerdo con él.

Se ha sabido que ambas partes siguen trabajando para acordar una extensión y que los Cowboys lo quieren para el futuro, incluso ofreciendo un contrato que lo convertiría en el segundo mejor pagado en su posición de la NFL.

Este equipo de los Dallas Cowboys realmente es un contendiente al Super Bowl y tanto la directiva como Elliott lo saben. Pueden estar pensando en Le'Veon Bell, pero no olviden lo diferente que estas situaciones son. Mi pronóstico coincide con el de Darlington y el de muchos otros: Zeke no se perderá ni un segundo de temporada regular.

Tell me what you think about "Cowboys en Español: Extensión de Jaylon, Pronóstico Para Elliott" in the comments below, or tweet me @MauNFL and let’s talk football! If you like football and are looking for a Dallas Cowboys show in Spanish, don’t miss my weekly Facebook Live! show, Primero Cowboys!


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How The Cowboys Can “Modernize” Their Offense

Kevin Brady

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Dallas Cowboys 2019 Training Camp: Top 5 Storylines to Follow
Smiley N. Pool/The Dallas Morning News

If there's one thing the national football world seemed to agree on last season, it's that Scott Linehan's offense had grown "stale."

After starting the Dak Prescott/Scott Linehan era off fast, with one of the league's best offenses in 2016 leading them to a 13-3 record, Dallas quickly fell down those offensive leaderboards. As pieces on the offensive line were forced to shuffle due to free agency, injury, or illness and Ezekiel Elliott faced suspension, the Cowboys offense sputtered during '17 and '18.

Though the Amari Cooper trade gave the unit a quick boost of energy en route to a division title a year ago, the Cowboys offense still seemed behind the curve when compared to the rest of the league.

Jerry Jones decided to fire offensive coordinator Scott Linehan this offseason, moving on from that "stale" offensive system. The man hired to replace Linehan? First year OC, and former backup quarterback in Dallas, Kellen Moore.

Much has been made about the hiring of Kellen Moore. Some believe he will be the one to bring much needed modern elements to the Cowboys offense, helping them compete with the loads of firepower around the NFC. Others see this as more of the same, as Jason Garrett is still the one ultimately in charge at The Star.

I decided to take a closer look at the Cowboys offensive efficiency numbers over the last three seasons to pinpoint exactly where they can improve. I also watched a bit of Kellen Moore from his quarterback days at Boise State, to see what aspects of that elite college offense he may look to incorporate with his new professional offense. The results were far from surprising, though they were certainly enlightening as we head into this 2019 campaign.

Play Action Passing

If you're on NFL Twitter as much as I am, you're probably sick of reading about play action passing. Analysts have been using the term as a sort of quick-fix for a struggling passing offense, pointing to the efficiency numbers of teams that do it well, such as the Los Angeles Rams.

The bottom line is, you need to have an efficient passing game to win in the NFL. And it's hard to be more efficient through the air than the Cowboys have been in their play action passing game.

Let's start back. In 2016, Dak Prescott dazzled all year long to earn himself Rookie of the Year honors. His best full season to date, Prescott immediately put himself into the conversation with top two picks Jared Goff and Carson Wentz for who will be the best young quarterback in that 2016 class. But, then, in 2017 things went a bit sour for Prescott, and stayed that way until Amari Cooper joined the Cowboys midway through the 2018 season.

While injuries, suspensions, and regression can all explain what has happened to the Cowboys passing offense since that miraculous rookie year, play action passing rate might do a better job than any of them. In 2016 the Cowboys finished with a 24% play action rate, placing them 3rd in the NFL in terms of usage. They averaged 9 yards per play on play action passes, with a DVOA of 45.8%. They were really good at it, and compared to the rest of the league, they did it a lot.

As play action rates around the league rose, however, the Cowboys stayed the same. They went from efficient and "smart" in 2016, their best offensive year with Dak Prescott, to outdated and stale. And they did so quickly.Neutral Perspective: Dak Prescott is NOT a 1-Man Army

In 2017 Dallas used play action just 22% of the time. While not a big dropoff from a season ago, they fell in the league rankings from 3rd to 19th. And while they remained a positive passing team in terms of DVOA overall, their passing efficiently rose 19.8% when using play action as compared to standard drop-back passing.

Then, in 2018, the Cowboys were once again in the middle of the pack in terms of play action rate at 25%. Despite their relatively low usage to the elite teams around the league, the Cowboys were 10th in play action passing DVOA. When they didn't use play action and decided to use the traditional drop-back passing, they were 27th in DVOA. In terms of DVOA differential, Dallas had the 5th biggest drop-off in the league, and were +37.7% when using play action.

In other words, the Cowboys were really good passing the ball after the play fake. Yet, for whatever reason, they didn't utilize it nearly enough last season.

If they are going to become "modern" or "cutting edge," they should be joining teams like the Rams, Eagles, and Patriots at the top of the play action rate leaderboards. Especially when the data suggests there are no diminishing returns with increased play action usage.

So, this would suggest the Cowboys have to pay Ezekiel Elliott, right?

Well, not exactly.


As discussed by Ben Baldwin in this Football Outsiders article, no relationship between rushing frequency or success and play action passing success has been found. Running the football does not set up more successful play action passes, despite what traditional football knowledge would suggest.

You can run and succeed at play action pass plays without running the football well, or much at all.

Pre-Snap Motion

Ah, another favorite term of NFL nerd Twitter, pre-snap motion. As a former college offensive lineman (yeah, division three, whatever) the infatuation with pre-snap motion at the NFL level is sort of funny to me.

At the high school and college levels, pre-snap motion is used all the time. I can't even count how many pre-snap flops or shifts, jet motions, sprint motions, fly motions/sweeps, etc. get used on a daily basis at practice. So how come the NFL is so far behind these lower levels of football?

Well, to be honest, they tend to be behind more often than not. But that's besides the point.

In 2018 the Cowboys used pre-snap motion 31% of the time, ranking 24th in the NFL according to Sports Info Solutions. New quarterbacks coach Jon Kitna, however, spoke to The Ringer about changing that in 2019.

“We want to spread it out and make the defense have to cover the full field,” Kitna says. “We’re going to try to use formations and shifts and movements to our advantage. I think a lot of people have that idea coming in, but we’re going to emphasize that.” - Jon Kitna

Incorporating more motions would be huge for the Cowboys offense. These motions can create that space Kitna is speaking to, especially considering how often opposing defenses will use man coverage against the Cowboys.

Everything you do as an offense should be done to put the defense in a bind. Make the defense choose between two bad options on every snap. Not only do motions indicate opposing coverages pre-snap, but when combined with stack and bunch formations and a variety of splits they also often force defenses to choose between two bad options.

Putting It Together

What would an offense like this look like? Let's take a look at Kellen Moore's college days for a couple examples.

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On this play above, the Broncos bring their tight end in motion across the formation. Kellen Moore snaps the ball as the tight end reaches the outside shoulder of the tackle. Then, they use both the play action fake and the motioned tight end to draw the defenders' eyes into the backfield/flats.

The hesitation from the linebackers and safeties gives Kellen the chance to take a deep shot down the field for a huge completion and a touchdown.

Streamable - free video publishing

Check out this video on Streamable using your phone, tablet or desktop.

Here's another example of Kellen Moore executing a touchdown pass off play action. This time, it's a wide receiver who goes in motion across the formation until he gets outside the far hash. The defense is forced to indicate their coverage because of the motion, so Kellen Moore knows exactly what look they are giving pre-snap.

The play action fake draws the linebackers up further towards the line of scrimmage, and Moore drops it over there heads to the previously motioned receiver for a touchdown.

Honestly, the plays themselves shouldn't be all that different. It's about dressing the packaging up in unique ways while still running the same base type plays they've always run. Every team runs inside and outside zone. Some do it better than others, though, and a lot of that has to do with the packaging.

The Cowboys can still, if they must, "establish the run." They can just do so in ways that keep the defense guessing, rather than pounding their heads against the wall against unfavorable box counts.

It's not about trick plays or gadgets, it's about creativity and variety.


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