Several sources reported yesterday that Tony Romo threw about 15-20 passes during the Cowboys pregame warmups in Washington. It naturally leads to speculation about when the starting quarterback will return to active duty.
Dallas chose not to put Romo on Injured Reserve because they felt he may be able to return sooner than Week 9, which is the earliest he could've come back from IR. At the time of his injury, returning as soon as Weeks 3-4 was an extremely optimistic projection but not impossible.
Romo's return is not as simple as when he's healed enough to be able to play. There are many factors to consider, but primary are the performance of Dak Prescott, the team's record and ability to contend, and the salary cap.
The Dak Factor
In 2006, Tony Romo replaced a struggling Drew Bledsoe and never looked back. Five years earlier, Bledsoe had lost his job in New England when Tom Brady famously took over due to an injury.
There is an obvious poetry to Romo facing the same situation now that Bledsoe did. Since Week One of the preseason, Dak Prescott has been wowing fans and analysts alike and generating excitement that we haven't seen in some time.
Even Stephen Jones, a key figure in the Cowboys front office, has drawn a comparison between the Bledsoe-Brady situation and what we have now with Romo and Prescott. That was before we saw Prescott carry his poise and performance over to the regular season.
In two games, Prescott has completed 47 of 75 passes (62.7%) for 519 yards. He has yet throw a touchdown but did one run one in against Washington. Despite the lack of scoring, Prescott has a solid 83.1 passer rating thanks largely to having no turnovers.
Prescott's strengths aren't seen in the box scores but on film. He has avoided pressure and delivered the ball with accuracy when on the move. He has shown a fantastic balance of knowing when to stick to the play and when to improvise. In Washington he led the team on several long drives and executed well on many third-down plays.
Helping Tony Romo's case for keeping his job are some consistent struggles in the redzone. Prescott's newness to the offense is clear in those situations; a lack of chemistry with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten that Romo would certainly offer. Assuming Romo is able to move the offense with the same efficiency as Prescott, he will likely improve things closer to the goal line.
At this point Prescott has been very good and even great in moments, but the production isn't there to say he's claimed the job away from Romo. However, with a least few more weeks to go before Romo can play, the Dak Factor is still in flux.
Team Record & Competitiveness
The Cowboys have gone 1-1 under Dak Prescott. Where their record is once Tony Romo is healthy has a major factor in deciding on his return.
Let's say that Dallas stays right around .500 until Romo's ready. They would be the "sweet spot" for Tony to come back, ideally improving the offense enough to increase scoring and help overcome the defensive issues.
If the Cowboys suddenly reel off a bunch of wins, it will come down to just analyzing Prescott's role in the success. Did he figure out the redzone problems? Is he producing to the same degree that Romo? Even if not quite as potent through the air, is Prescott's running ability offsetting that?
Momentum is a valuable thing and Dallas won't toss it aside lightly. However, on the other end of the spectrum is a question we can't help but consider.
What if the Cowboys' win in Washington was their last one?
Washington is clearly not a very good team right now. Dallas could find that their next several opponents (Bears, 49ers, Bengals, Packers, Eagles) are tougher and end up at 1-6.
At what point does a team say "we're done" and start thinking about next season? When do risking Tony Romo's long-term health and costing Dak Prescott valuable game time make less sense than surrendering?
Obviously, a huge factor here is when Tony will actually be ready to play. If it's in just 2-3 weeks, there really isn't much room for the team to go one way or the other.
Salary Cap Concerns
Other than his own health issues, this may be Tony Romo's greatest enemy. Consider the following points:
Romo's contract is not prohibitive as of 2017. They could create $5.1 million in cap space if they cut him outright or $14 million if he's a June 1st release. These same factors would apply if Romo retires or if he's traded.
- The Cowboys need cash to keep their offensive line together. Zack Martin and La'el Collins will both be on expiring contracts next season, though they could use a team option on Martin for 2018.
- Dallas' defense is clearly still a problem and could need plenty of cash invested to make it competitive.
- We have a recent example in the Seattle Seahawks of how a championship team can be built when a star quarterback is playing on a rookie salary. The Cowboys certainly were paying attention.
These cap concerns do help Dak Prescott's case to remain the starter. If Dallas can make a smooth transition at quarterback while also freeing up funds to retain other assets and make upgrades, it could propel them towards annual contender status. Not only would they get cash now to work with, but more as the dead money from Romo's deal drops off the books.
~ ~ ~
There is only one absolute that could exist in this discussion, and that's if Jason Garrett and Jerry Jones believe that Tony Romo deserves to play no matter the circumstances. We know how close Jason and Tony are and how much loyalty and love Jerry has for his players. Those may override any other factors.
If the Cowboys are thinking with their heads over hearts, though, then they will have plenty to consider. As much as we all love Tony Romo, he can't be put above the welfare of the organization.
Only time will tell if Romo's return is something to be celebrated, or a problem to be solved.
Leighton Vander Esch To Top Rookie Season With Pro Bowl Trip
Dallas Cowboys' rookie Leighton Vander Esch has done enough to prove every single doubter wrong. When Roger Goodell called his name during the 2018 NFL Draft in Arlington, Texas, many in Cowboys Nation rejoiced at the thought of having a young linebacker for a defense surrounded with uncertainty. However, many analysts doubted the draft pick. For a lot of people (sadly, I include myself in this category), the pick should've been used on another player. For most, despite acknowledging his raw talent, Vander Esch wouldn't be able to provide the Cowboys with an instant impact player. Ah, well.
After a remarkable season, Vander Esch (a.k.a. Wolf Hunter) has earned a spot on this season's second-team All-Pro. When the Pro Bowl voting began, Vander Esch was snubbed from the ballot itself. It didn't took the NFL long to realize their mistake and add the Cowboys' linebacker to the list. Despite missing the cut at first, Vander Esch will be heading to Orlando to play in this year's Pro Bowl on January 27th.
The former Boise State Bronco will be replacing Carolina Panthers' LB Luke Kuechly, who won't be participating because of an injury.
Vander Esch racked up 140 tackles (per Pro Football Reference), ranking third in the league in this category. He finished the season as the fifth best linebacker in Pro Football Focus' rankings.
But numbers aren't really enough to fully appreciate what Vander Esch did for the Dallas Cowboys. A team that was used to seeing its defense break when veteran Sean Lee went down injured, did not only get someone to fill in for Lee. Vander Esch actually upgraded the Cowboys' defense. It didn't matter where the ball went, he was always around when opponents were tackled. His speed and chance of direction allowed him to run sideline to sideline, covering a huge portion of the field.
Along Jaylon Smith, Dallas managed to have one of the best linebacker duos in the NFL.
The last time a defensive rookie from the Cowboys went to the Pro Bowl was in 1981, when Everson Walls made the team. Vander Esch is the 11th rookie in team history to be selected to the Pro Bowl. This year, the rookie will be accompanied by DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Jones, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and Ezekiel Elliott.
Cowboys Expect C Travis Frederick Back for Offseason Program
Lost in yesterday's hoopla over Scott Linehan's return was a positive report about Center Travis Frederick. In his comments to the media, Jason Garrett said that Frederick's recovery timetable should allow him to a full participant in the team's offseason program.
After never missing a start in his first five years, Travis missed all of 2018 dealing with the effects of Guillain-Barré Syndrome. The disease attacked his neurological system and required immediate and intensive treatment.
Jason Garrett says the team anticipates Travis Frederick being involved in the offseason program right from the start this spring if he continues on the same positive track in recovery from Guillain-Barré syndrome. #cowboyswire
While Joe Looney performed admirably in Frederick's absence, he's not an elite talent. Travis has been arguably the best center in the NFL since entering the league in 2013.
It's hard to qualify what effect not having Frederick had on the Cowboys offense in 2018. Ezekiel Elliott still led the league in rushing, but short-yardage plays weren't as automatic as we've seen in past years. A 4th-and-1 stuff was part of what led to the Cowboys' loss this past Saturday.
Dak Prescott was the second-most sacked QB in the NFL in 2018. After being sacked just 25 and 32 times in his first two seasons, the number skyrocketed to 56 sacks.
That's not all on Frederick, of course. Tyron Smith had some health issues and there were was turnover at left guard.
But having your All-Pro veteran center out there to help with the pre-snap reads, and help the rookie guard on his left, might have helped avoid some of those issues.
Indeed, Travis Frederick's return is just one of many reasons for optimism with the 2019 season. One of the best players on the team, he was sorely missed this year and can only help as Dallas looks to build on their division title and playoff appearance.
For Cowboys to Beat the Rams, Dak Prescott must Lead the Way
In the NFL wins and losses often come down to quarterback play. That isn't to say that if a team wins, it was all because of the quarterback and inversely, if a team loses that it was all on the quarterback. Teams win or lose games. Generally speaking, however, the quarterback has the highest amount of influence on the outcome of an NFL game. This will be no different for the Dallas Cowboys this Saturday when they take on the Los Angeles Rams in the LA Coliseum. For America's Team to make their first trip to the NFC Championship Game since 1996, Dak Prescott has to have a good game.
This looks to be a good matchup for the Dallas Cowboys offense, which should allow Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to take advantage in certain areas.
A few Rams Passing Game Notes
- The Los Angeles Rams were middle of the pack against the pass this season, allowing the 14th fewest passing yards in the league this season.
- The Rams allowed 7.7 yards per attempt. Dak Prescott is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt since week 10 of the season.
- The Rams allowed the eighth most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season. They and the New Orleans Saints are the only teams in the top 10 of passing touchdowns allowed in the playoffs this season.
- The Rams were 15th in the NFL in sacks, with 41, but Aaron Donald accounted for half of that with 20.5 sacks on the season. No other player had more than five sacks.
- They were third in the NFL in interceptions, collecting 18.
- The Rams allowed the ninth highest yards per completion on the season at 11.8. So on average, every completion went for a first down.
Dak Prescott is playing as well as any quarterback in the playoffs at the moment. Over the last nine games, he's averaging 272 passing yards, two total touchdowns, was only intercepted four times, and was sacked on average 3.2 times per game.
On Saturday night, we saw Scott Linehan put the ball in his hands on a couple designed runs that nearly scored touchdowns. It was an excellent addition to the offense that could help fix the Cowboys red zone woes. Getting Dak Prescott running on some designed runs or quarterback draws could help slow down Aaron Donald and the pass rush.
The Cowboys needed every bit of Dak Prescott magic to overcome a stingy Seattle Seahawks defense in their Wild Card win and they'll need him to step up again this week against the Rams. Every team is going to attempt to take away the running game to make Dak beat you and as he continues to mature, he's getting more and more comfortable doing that. He's comfortable with the big stage and the big moments.
Dak Prescott Since 2016, including playoffs * 15 game-winning drives (Most in NFL) * 13 primetime QB wins (Most in NFL) * 19 rush TD (Most in NFL by QB) #DallasCowboys @dak
No Quarterback in the NFL has more game winning drives, rushing touchdowns, or wins in primetime than Dak Prescott. When we talk about Dak Prescott, we talk a lot about the things that he can't do as a passer and deservedly so, he still has some growing to do in that area, but in the things that you can't objectively quantify -- mental toughness, resiliency, clutchness, will, determination -- Dak is one of the best in the NFL. He's as mentally tough as they come in the NFL and he doesn't let the spotlight or the game situation phase him. He has that stuff that's hard to put your finger on.
The Dallas Cowboys will need more of that on Saturday night in Los Angeles. The Rams can score and can score in bunches and if the Cowboys defense starts sluggish or has an off night, they'll need Dak Prescott to keep them in the game. Even if the defense has a good game, Dak still has to come through in the passing game and on the ground to give the Cowboys a chance to pull off the upset.
The Dallas Cowboys are going to try to run the ball against the Rams on Saturday. That's their identity; run the ball, control the clock, and be efficient in the passing game. Prescott, either with his legs or with his arm will have to make some plays to extend drives and keep the Rams offense on the sideline. He'll need to be sharp in the red zone to convert those opportunities into touchdowns. Settling for field goals against the Rams is how the Cowboys get beat.
This matchup with the Rams looks to set up nicely for Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys, yet how things look on paper doesn't mean much when the lights go on and the whistle blows. It's a big stage and it's another win-or-go-home game for the Cowboys (like every game has been over the last nine weeks). In a big game, you need big time players, and the Cowboys have one in quarterback Dak Prescott.
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