I hope you brought your sequin jacket, iconic glove, and slippery shoes... we're emulating the King of Pop today.
I've been thinking a lot about the 1992 Dallas Cowboys lately hoping that if I rekindle enough memories they'll seep over into reality and the 2015 version of America's Team will produce similar results - sitting in the locker room at half time of the Super Bowl well on their way to victory.
While Jimmy Johnson and his staff made the appropriate adjustments to finish off the Buffalo Bills the field at the Rose Bowl was occupied by none other than Michael Jackson... who gave one of the more memorable Super Bowl Halftime Performances that we've ever seen. You can re-watch the halftime show here:
One of the best performaces of the "King of Pop - Michael Jackson". Super Bowl Half Time Show performed in California at January 31, 1993, it includes Jam, Billie Jean, Black or White, We are the World and Heal the World.
So put on that gear that I told you to bring (you were supposed to bring it!). We're about to moonwalk our way down my Week 10 NFL Game Picks with the help of the one and only MJ.
Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills (4-4) At New York Jets (5-3)
Michael Jackson Theme: Don't Stop 'Til You Get Enough
That's right the ballad that Chris Rock channeled in the legendary Rush Hour 2 is the MJ theme for this game. Why? Rex Ryan will not stop until he gets enough... which is a limitless amount.
The former Head Coach of the New York Jets, now with the Buffalo Bills, proved again this week that he is starving for attention. Maybe Rex is just trying to distract the attention so that his players aren't under too much pressure? Or maybe he just truly wants this game to be referred to as "Rex Bowl I."
Rex Bowl I is tonight only on @nflnetwork! @DanHanzus breaks down all you need to know https://t.co/We0x38TBug
Sorry, Rex. The Jets defense is better than your version was the last few years and they've got a litany of offensive weapons. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are going to have themselves a game as Rex fumes on the sidelines.
Prediction: Bills - 13, JETS - 27
Chicago Bears (3-5) At St. Louis Rams (4-4)
Michael Jackson Theme: Man In The Mirror
Jay Cutler was... good on Monday Night Football? Really?
It's hard to tell what you're ever going to get from the Bears. They certainly have a lot of offensive playmakers, but Jay Cutler supposedly ruins everything that he touches. Namely the football.
The Rams lost a really close game last week in Minnesota, and while Todd Gurley is amazing... Jeff Fisher is kind of the Jay Cutler of coaches. You never know exactly what's going to show up you just know that you don't really want to be a part of it.
Take a good hard look in the mirror guys and make a change.
Prediction: Bears - 16, RAMS - 22
Cleveland Browns (2-7) At Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
Michael Jackson Theme: You Are Not Alone
The Browns are so bad. So freaking bad.
It seems that everyone has a different opinion on whether Johnny Manziel is a capable NFL quarterback, but everyone has the same opinion in that Josh McCown will never win a Super Bowl. This franchise is in a tailspin, as it has been since its re-establishment, and they themselves don't know what they want from Johnny Football. Wouldn't playing him be a good way to figure that out? Just my two cents.
The Steelers are almost as injury-riddled as the Cowboys. Big Ben may play, may not, who cares? I could line up behind center for them and get the ball to Antonio Brown enough times to beat the Browns. The only people alone in this game will be the Cleveland faithful. You guys deserve better.
Prediction: Browns - 16, STEELERS - 33
Dallas Cowboys (2-6) At Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
Michael Jackson Theme: Wanna Be Startin' Somethin'
I said you wanna be starting something is right! The Dallas Cowboys' season is one step away from full-on life support. Tony Romo is coming back in Week 11 so we need to get something going in his absence.
If you read my recent Don't Stop Believing, Part Deux remix here at Inside The Star then you know that in order for the Cowboys to win the division this game has to serve as the spring board. Matt Cassel and the offense looked, dare I say, good against the Eagles last week. Look for them to pick up where they left off and the Rode Marinelli defense to finally start to live up to their offseason hype.
Prediction: COWBOYS - 27, Buccaneers - 17
Detroit Lions (1-7) At Green Bay Packers (5-2)
Michael Jackson Theme: Beat It
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have lost two games in a row for the first time since 2010 (the year they won their Super Bowl at Jerry World).
He is not a happy camper. Aaron is in fact so mad that he threw a Microsoft Surface on the sidelines in Carolina last week, but hey what a team leader without any sense of disruption on their sidelines? Right, MJ?
While I do think it's unfair that ARod isn't being scrutinized for that I also think that he has to "show them that he's really not scared" and is absolutely going to on Sunday. He's going to exorcise some serious demons and beat it out of the Lions. Rawr.
Prediction: Lions - 12, PACKERS - 38
Carolina Panthers (8-0) At Tennessee Titans (2-6)
Michael Jackson Theme: Smile
Who has a better smile than Cam Newton?
Superman has plenty of reasons to show off his pearly whites these days as his MVP-caliber performance has the undefeated Panthers playing some seriously awesome football.
The song says that you should smile "though your heart is aching, smile even though it's breaking," but the only broken hearts around here will be those of Titans fans. The Panthers are going to demolish them. As impressive as the reigning Heisman Trophy Winner, Marcus Mariota, has been... this is too tall of a task for the flyin' Hawaiian.
Prediction: PANTHERS - 24, Titans - 13
Miami Dolphins (3-5) At Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
Michael Jackson Theme: Smooth Criminal
"It was a Sunday, what a black day."
I hope Annie is ok because the Dolphins are going to need her, and so is Cowboys Nation. I don't know what that means... you try relating Michael Jackson songs to every football game of the week!
Ok I feel better. Annie is going to help the Dolphins this week. The Eagles have been really suspect lately and if the Dallas Cowboys defense could have actually gotten to Sam Bradford they would have indeed had a black day last Sunday.
That's where Ndamukong Suh, who I've affectionately dubbed "Annie" for this game, is going to come in. The Dolphins paid Suh a ton of money to come in and help them win games... and he's going to get it done. The Fin offense is capable of showing up whenever Ryan Tannehill feels like not being terrible and will be this Sunday. ANNIE ARE YOU OK?
Prediction: DOLPHINS - 24, Eagles - 22
New Orleans Saints (4-5) At Washington Redskins (3-5)
Michael Jackson Theme: You Rock My World
The Saints are high on my love list these days. They already took care of the New York Giants for us and now they're going to annihilate the Redskins for us.
Drew Brees is straight BALLIN right now so if you have him in fantasy football you better suit him up. Rock on, Drew.
Oh and the Redskins suck. There's your analysis!
Predictions: SAINTS - 33, Redskins - 13
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) At Baltimore Ravens (2-6)
Michael Jackson Theme: They Don't Care About Us
This game is a snooze fest.
If you've been reading my picks for the last few weeks then, first of all, I love you. Second of all, I've been really high on the Jaguars. And you know what? They've come close a lot of times that I've picked them.
A real captain goes down with his ship. Give me the Jaguars over a mediocre Ravens team who has no idea who they're going to throw it to in the absence of Steve Smith Sr..
Prediction: JAGUARS - 30, Ravens - 23
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) At Oakland Raiders (4-4)
Michael Jackson Theme: P.Y.T. (Pretty Young Thing)
I want to love you, Vikings and Raiders.
This is one of my favorite Super Bowl rematches in the history of pro football. Super Bowl XI saw the Raiders claim their first World Championship as Fred Biletnikoff earned MVP honors over Bud Grant's Vikings.
These Raiders are fun, man. Derek Carr, Latavius Murray, Amari Cooper... what a pretty young thing. They're going to expose the Vikings this week. Bam.
Prediction: Vikings - 16, RAIDERS - 24
Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) At Denver Broncos (7-1)
Michael Jackson Theme: Remember The Time
Peyton Manning has been trying to "remember the time" all season long. The Sheriff has struggled in 2015, but the Broncos have not.
Denver suffered its first loss last week in Indianapolis, a team Peyton has yet to beat since moving to Denver, but they get the helpless Chiefs now.
Kansas City really doesn't have anything to get excited about offensively and that's tough cookies because they're up against perhaps the best defense in football (who is without the suspended Aqib Talib). Me no likey.
Prediction: Chiefs - 10, BRONCOS - 17
New England Patriots (8-0) At New York Giants (5-4)
Michael Jackson Theme: Thriller
Thriller is one of the greatest music videos of all-time. It's got zombies and all kinds of creatures bustin' a moove.
Tom Brady and the Pats are going to have to wake up something from the dead because they have not beaten the New York Giants since Week 17 of the 2007 season (also the last time that they played in New York).
This game is going to be a thriller in the sense that there's "no escaping the jaws" of the Patriots this time. The Giants' luck against them has run out. The Patriots are "out to get you," New York.
Prediction: PATRIOTS - 44, Giants - 27
Sunday Night Football: Arizona Cardinals (6-2) At Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
Michael Jackson Theme: Love Never Felt So Good (Feat. Justin Timberlake)
This is one of the new-age MJ songs that came out after his death. It was a chart topper a year or so ago, so it's relatively new. So is the rivalry between these Cardinals and Seahawks.
This is going to be quite the game on prime time Sunday Night. I love the Cardinals in every aspect of it over the Seahawks... sorry Ciara. Look for a great game that the Cardinals find a way to come out on top of.
Prediction: CARDINALS - 29, Seahawks - 27
Monday Night Football: Houston Texans (3-5) Cincinnati Bengals (8-0)
Michael Jackson Theme: Black Or White
The Houston Texans are believing in miracles right now with the injury to Andrew Luck, but a miracle will not be happening this night.
This game is all about good and bad, aka black and white. The Bengals are good... the Texans are bad.
Prediction: Texans - 16, BENGALS - 38
Dallas Cowboys’ Starters Don’t Need to Play in Preseason “Dress Rehearsal”
The third game of the preseason has long been considered the "dress rehearsal" game for NFL teams. It's the game where teams generally played their starters for at least a half and sometimes into the second half so that coaches and players could practice communicating adjustments during half time. With the conversation about the future of the preseason focused on reducing the number of exhibition games teams play, it's time for the Dallas Cowboys to follow several other teams and sit their starters and principle role players for the third preseason game.
The Los Angeles Rams, among other teams, have made a conscious decision not to play their starters in the third preseason game for several years under Head Coach Sean McVay. And if you look back at how they've handled the preseason this offseason, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, haven't played a single snap. They also haven't played Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, or Cooper Kupp. The Rams have been one of the best offensive teams in the NFL but haven't played their primary skill position players in the preseason in two years.
The Dallas Cowboys and every other team in the NFL can take a lesson. But based on a report from Todd Archer of ESPN, the Dallas Cowboys have different plans. Even planning to play the oft-injured Sean Lee this weekend.
Linebacker Sean Lee has practiced the last three days, and anticipates he will play Saturday at least some against the Houston Texans. Lee suffered a slightly sprained medial collateral ligament in the first padded practice while in Oxnard, California,... https://t.co/zZ4KNvWdua
There's very little reason at this point to play your starters and risk injuries that could derail what the Dallas Cowboys hope is a Super Bowl run. Jason Garrett's an old school coach from an older way of thinking that believes it's important to get those reps against live competition. To an extent, it is important to work on things against a team that doesn't know you as well as your own players. On the other hand, does the benefit outweigh the risk?
Last night, with the Carolina Panthers facing the New England Patriots in their third preseason game, Cam Newton took several big hits that led to him having to leave the game with a foot or ankle injury. Now, for Carolina's sake, they better hope it's a minor thing that will heal with some rest, because if Cam Newton has to miss an extended period of time, they can go ahead and write off the 2019 season, especially in the NFC South.
With as effective as the first-team offense has looked in the first two preseason games, does it make sense to risk Dak Prescott or one of the other starters on offense to injury in order to get them more live competition?
The offensive line is already ailing a bit with Tyron Smith missing last week's matchup with the Los Angeles Rams due to yet another back issue. Zack Martin sat out the game in Hawaii as well with a bulging disc in his back that has held him out of practice as well. It's unlikely that either of these guys will play Saturday night along with any of the other players dealing with injuries right now. However, what's the point of playing the guys who aren't injured.
Sure, this game could give Dak Prescott and Michael Gallup some more reps to work on their chemistry or snaps for Travis Frederick and Jason Witten to get in game shape after a year layoff. However, there's so much more to be lost than gained if one of the starters or primary role-players is injured in this game. Prescott and Gallup have looked great in practice. Frederick and Witten will work into game shape.
You can't play football worried about players getting hurt, but you can save your risk-taking for a time when the games actually matter to your win-loss ledger. Let the back half of your 90 man roster get all the snaps they can get in this game and the next. Perhaps those extra snaps help the coaching staff separate those players on the bubble for the 53-man roster.
Though we will watch the game Saturday night to see what those Dallas Cowboys who do play are able to accomplish against the Houston Texans, we will be watching with bated breath. Hoping that the Dallas Cowboys don't suffer an injury that could derail their chances of contending for a Super Bowl.
Cowboys en Español: Extensión de Jaylon, Pronóstico Para Elliott
Los Dallas Cowboys han sido uno de los equipos más importantes a seguir este offseason. ¿El motivo? Tres super estrellas en espera de extensiones de contrato. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott y Amari Cooper han sido el enfoque para medios y aficionados cuando se trata del equipo de Jerry Jones. Sin embargo, ninguno de ellos fue el primero en llegar un acuerdo con el equipo. El linebacker Jaylon Smith consiguió llevarse la primera rebanada del pastel.
Jaylon Smith se ha perfilado como uno de los mejores linebackers en toda la NFL después de una excelente temporada en 2018. Al recordar su historia, es increíble ver hasta donde ha llegado. Fue en 2016 cuando, jugando su último partido de football universitario con Notre Dame, el linebacker sufrió una lesión de rodilla lo suficientemente seria para poner en duda si volvería a jugar en su vida. Quien hubiera sido probablemente una de las primeras cinco selecciones en su respectivo NFL Draft, terminó cayendo hasta la segunda ronda, donde los Cowboys terminaron su desliz y lo llamaron a Dallas sabiendo que podría tardar hasta más de un año en regresar al campo.
Después de perderse la campaña del 2016, en 2017 fue apresurado al emparrillado y a pesar de verse prometedor, no brilló tanto como lo hizo el año pasado. Estando completamente sano, Smith se lució como el linebacker central de la defensiva de los Cowboys que sorprendió a toda la liga. Realmente vimos a la fuerza que todos esperaban ver de su parte cuando era un prospecto de Notre Dame.
Ahora, firma una extensión de contrato que realmente es amigable con el equipo. Después de un offseason en el que Bobby Wagner (Seahawks) recibió 18 millones de dólares en promedio al año y C.J. Mosley 17, el valor de Smith pudo haber estado alrededor de los 15. Sin embargo, el promedio de la extensión de 5 años de Jaylon es de 12.8.
Jaylon Smith al parecer le dio un descuento al equipo que creyó en el cuando su carrera era un signo de interrogación. Los Cowboys aseguran un gran talento para el futuro, y otro defensivo en torno a quien pueden construir una defensiva para el largo plazo. Tanto la directiva como el jugador se merecen un fuerte aplauso por esta noticia.
Mientras tanto, rumores sobre la situación de Ezekiel Elliott continúan. La historia, por el momento, sigue siendo la misma. Zeke no se ha reportado con el equipo y está de vuelta en Cabo después de haber viajado (e ilusionado a muchos fans en el proceso) a Dallas hace unos días.
Muchos se han dado a la tarea de entrar en pánico, pero yo los invito a que tomen un fuerte respiro. Sí, la temporada regular está muy cerca. Sin duda, Elliott estará en forma pero el no haber trabajado con el equipo en training camp podría resultar en el corredor super estrella tardando un poco en adaptarse.
Habiendo dicho eso, me sorprendería mucho si Zeke se pierde un segundo de temporada regular. Jeff Darlington, reportero de ESPN, comentó al aire que su predicción era que Elliott se reportará para la semana 1 y no podría estar más de acuerdo con él.
Se ha sabido que ambas partes siguen trabajando para acordar una extensión y que los Cowboys lo quieren para el futuro, incluso ofreciendo un contrato que lo convertiría en el segundo mejor pagado en su posición de la NFL.
Este equipo de los Dallas Cowboys realmente es un contendiente al Super Bowl y tanto la directiva como Elliott lo saben. Pueden estar pensando en Le'Veon Bell, pero no olviden lo diferente que estas situaciones son. Mi pronóstico coincide con el de Darlington y el de muchos otros: Zeke no se perderá ni un segundo de temporada regular.
How The Cowboys Can “Modernize” Their Offense
If there's one thing the national football world seemed to agree on last season, it's that Scott Linehan's offense had grown "stale."
After starting the Dak Prescott/Scott Linehan era off fast, with one of the league's best offenses in 2016 leading them to a 13-3 record, Dallas quickly fell down those offensive leaderboards. As pieces on the offensive line were forced to shuffle due to free agency, injury, or illness and Ezekiel Elliott faced suspension, the Cowboys offense sputtered during '17 and '18.
Though the Amari Cooper trade gave the unit a quick boost of energy en route to a division title a year ago, the Cowboys offense still seemed behind the curve when compared to the rest of the league.
Jerry Jones decided to fire offensive coordinator Scott Linehan this offseason, moving on from that "stale" offensive system. The man hired to replace Linehan? First year OC, and former backup quarterback in Dallas, Kellen Moore.
Much has been made about the hiring of Kellen Moore. Some believe he will be the one to bring much needed modern elements to the Cowboys offense, helping them compete with the loads of firepower around the NFC. Others see this as more of the same, as Jason Garrett is still the one ultimately in charge at The Star.
I decided to take a closer look at the Cowboys offensive efficiency numbers over the last three seasons to pinpoint exactly where they can improve. I also watched a bit of Kellen Moore from his quarterback days at Boise State, to see what aspects of that elite college offense he may look to incorporate with his new professional offense. The results were far from surprising, though they were certainly enlightening as we head into this 2019 campaign.
Play Action Passing
If you're on NFL Twitter as much as I am, you're probably sick of reading about play action passing. Analysts have been using the term as a sort of quick-fix for a struggling passing offense, pointing to the efficiency numbers of teams that do it well, such as the Los Angeles Rams.
The bottom line is, you need to have an efficient passing game to win in the NFL. And it's hard to be more efficient through the air than the Cowboys have been in their play action passing game.
Let's start back. In 2016, Dak Prescott dazzled all year long to earn himself Rookie of the Year honors. His best full season to date, Prescott immediately put himself into the conversation with top two picks Jared Goff and Carson Wentz for who will be the best young quarterback in that 2016 class. But, then, in 2017 things went a bit sour for Prescott, and stayed that way until Amari Cooper joined the Cowboys midway through the 2018 season.
While injuries, suspensions, and regression can all explain what has happened to the Cowboys passing offense since that miraculous rookie year, play action passing rate might do a better job than any of them. In 2016 the Cowboys finished with a 24% play action rate, placing them 3rd in the NFL in terms of usage. They averaged 9 yards per play on play action passes, with a DVOA of 45.8%. They were really good at it, and compared to the rest of the league, they did it a lot.
As play action rates around the league rose, however, the Cowboys stayed the same. They went from efficient and "smart" in 2016, their best offensive year with Dak Prescott, to outdated and stale. And they did so quickly.
In 2017 Dallas used play action just 22% of the time. While not a big dropoff from a season ago, they fell in the league rankings from 3rd to 19th. And while they remained a positive passing team in terms of DVOA overall, their passing efficiently rose 19.8% when using play action as compared to standard drop-back passing.
Then, in 2018, the Cowboys were once again in the middle of the pack in terms of play action rate at 25%. Despite their relatively low usage to the elite teams around the league, the Cowboys were 10th in play action passing DVOA. When they didn't use play action and decided to use the traditional drop-back passing, they were 27th in DVOA. In terms of DVOA differential, Dallas had the 5th biggest drop-off in the league, and were +37.7% when using play action.
In other words, the Cowboys were really good passing the ball after the play fake. Yet, for whatever reason, they didn't utilize it nearly enough last season.
If they are going to become "modern" or "cutting edge," they should be joining teams like the Rams, Eagles, and Patriots at the top of the play action rate leaderboards. Especially when the data suggests there are no diminishing returns with increased play action usage.
So, this would suggest the Cowboys have to pay Ezekiel Elliott, right?
Well, not exactly.
As discussed by Ben Baldwin in this Football Outsiders article, no relationship between rushing frequency or success and play action passing success has been found. Running the football does not set up more successful play action passes, despite what traditional football knowledge would suggest.
You can run and succeed at play action pass plays without running the football well, or much at all.
Ah, another favorite term of NFL nerd Twitter, pre-snap motion. As a former college offensive lineman (yeah, division three, whatever) the infatuation with pre-snap motion at the NFL level is sort of funny to me.
At the high school and college levels, pre-snap motion is used all the time. I can't even count how many pre-snap flops or shifts, jet motions, sprint motions, fly motions/sweeps, etc. get used on a daily basis at practice. So how come the NFL is so far behind these lower levels of football?
Well, to be honest, they tend to be behind more often than not. But that's besides the point.
In 2018 the Cowboys used pre-snap motion 31% of the time, ranking 24th in the NFL according to Sports Info Solutions. New quarterbacks coach Jon Kitna, however, spoke to The Ringer about changing that in 2019.
“We want to spread it out and make the defense have to cover the full field,” Kitna says. “We’re going to try to use formations and shifts and movements to our advantage. I think a lot of people have that idea coming in, but we’re going to emphasize that.” - Jon Kitna
Incorporating more motions would be huge for the Cowboys offense. These motions can create that space Kitna is speaking to, especially considering how often opposing defenses will use man coverage against the Cowboys.
Everything you do as an offense should be done to put the defense in a bind. Make the defense choose between two bad options on every snap. Not only do motions indicate opposing coverages pre-snap, but when combined with stack and bunch formations and a variety of splits they also often force defenses to choose between two bad options.
Putting It Together
What would an offense like this look like? Let's take a look at Kellen Moore's college days for a couple examples.
Check out this video on Streamable using your phone, tablet or desktop.
On this play above, the Broncos bring their tight end in motion across the formation. Kellen Moore snaps the ball as the tight end reaches the outside shoulder of the tackle. Then, they use both the play action fake and the motioned tight end to draw the defenders' eyes into the backfield/flats.
The hesitation from the linebackers and safeties gives Kellen the chance to take a deep shot down the field for a huge completion and a touchdown.
Check out this video on Streamable using your phone, tablet or desktop.
Here's another example of Kellen Moore executing a touchdown pass off play action. This time, it's a wide receiver who goes in motion across the formation until he gets outside the far hash. The defense is forced to indicate their coverage because of the motion, so Kellen Moore knows exactly what look they are giving pre-snap.
The play action fake draws the linebackers up further towards the line of scrimmage, and Moore drops it over there heads to the previously motioned receiver for a touchdown.
Honestly, the plays themselves shouldn't be all that different. It's about dressing the packaging up in unique ways while still running the same base type plays they've always run. Every team runs inside and outside zone. Some do it better than others, though, and a lot of that has to do with the packaging.
The Cowboys can still, if they must, "establish the run." They can just do so in ways that keep the defense guessing, rather than pounding their heads against the wall against unfavorable box counts.
It's not about trick plays or gadgets, it's about creativity and variety.
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