Before the 2017 season, I wrote up an article about why we should've expected regression from the Cowboys. Though they were excellent in 2016, the Pythagorean Wins Expectations Theorem suggested that they outperformed their true team value. As I've discussed before, Pythagorean Wins is a pretty solid indicator of true team value, and a good predictor of regression to the mean.
"It is has been famously adjusted to estimate win percentages in the NFL, and has had quite a bit of accuracy doing so. Football Outsiders claims that between 1988 and 2004, 11 of the 16 Super Bowl winners also led the league in Pythagorean wins. They also claim that this equation is a valid predictor of improvement or regression during the following season. For example, when a team wins at least one full game more than the equation would project, they tend to regress the next year and vice-versa."
Pythagorean Wins has been adjusted and crafted by many outlets, most recently by Football Outsiders. The current accepted equation is as follows:
PF stands for "Points For" and PA stands for "Points Against." 2.37 is the exponent which each value is raised to. This exponent has been derived by Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey when he adapted the equation from the NBA to the NFL.
According to this equation, the 2016 Cowboys outperformed their true value by about 2 whole wins. Because of this, reasonable regression was expected. The 2016 Philadelphia Eagles under performed by 2 games according to their expected wins, and jolted ahead to a division title in 2017, correcting their previous performance.
Of course regressing all the way to 9 wins was surprising, but the results of the 2017 Cowboys might be cause for alarm. In 2017 the Cowboys scored 354 points and allowed 332. When you plug those numbers into the formula, you end up with 8.6 expected wins.
This means the Cowboys basically performed to their true team value in 2017 as they won just 0.4 more games than expected. According to Football Outsiders, when a team (45 teams included in this particular bundle) is within 0.0 - 0.5 of their expected wins they only change by an average of .27 wins the next season.
So, according to the numbers, the Cowboys are an 8-9 win team. While we know that injuries and suspensions forced some regression a year ago, these numbers do spell out how we all feel about the current roster. Hopefully the right changes can be made to outperform what Pythagorean Wins expects from the 2018 Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys to Re-Sign Long Snapper L.P. Ladouceur for 2018
Continuity is the key to good special teams play in the NFL. Already losing long-time Special Teams Coordinator Rich Bisaccia to the Raiders - who promptly snatched ST aces Keith Smith and Kyle Wilber in free agency - the Dallas Cowboys have announced their intentions to re-sign Long Snapper L.P. Ladouceur for the 2018 season.
Returning on a one-year deal, the fan favorite Ladouceur will be back to do what he does best in cleanly executing almost every special teams snap for Chris Jones or Dan Bailey to handle.
Long snapper L.P. Ladouceur will re-sign with the Cowboys on Monday, according to sources, on a one-year deal. He will be in his 14th season with the franchise. Only Jason Witten, Ed "Too Tall" Jones, Bill Bates and Mark Tuinei will have more years of... https://t.co/yTQbMYyrIv
While Jones has improved as the Cowboys' punter with each passing season, Kicker Dan Bailey actually enters 2018 as another question mark on this unit. With the general belief around the team being that Bailey will be just fine moving forward, the Cowboys will no longer have to worry about who handles long snaps next year either.
L.P. Ladouceur is back in the silver and blue, and in this moment, everything can be alright with the world.
Report: Raiders Sign Former Cowboys LB Kyle Wilber
A Free Agency period filled with departures continued for the Dallas Cowboys today, as the Oakland Raiders have reportedly signed the now-former Cowboys LB Kyle Wilber.
The Raiders have signed LB Kyle Wilber: https://t.co/TaC6cqjval
Wilber has been with the Cowboys since 2012, and has played in all 16 games four of the past five seasons. Most of his time has come on special teams, but he did provide solid linebacker depth for the Cowboys since joining the team.
Dallas has now lost both Wilber and Anthony Hitchens, depleting their linebacker depth even further over the last couple weeks.
The Raiders have now signed two key special teams contributors for the Cowboys in Keith Smith and Kyle Wilber this offseason. Hopefully Dallas can replace these types of "replacement level" players throughout the rest of the offseason, especially during the NFL Draft.
Report: Cowboys Officially Release CB Orlando Scandrick
After requesting his release from the team just a few days ago, Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick has gotten his wish. According to ESPN's Josina Anderson, Scandrick has officially been cut by the Dallas Cowboys.
I'm told the #Cowboys have informed CB Orlando Scandrick he will be released, per source.
This move will reportedly save the Cowboys roughly $1.4M against the salary cap, as we hope they finally look to make some moves during the Free Agency period.
Scandrick's release comes after an offseason in which the Cowboys totally overhauled the back end of their defense, specifically their cornerbacks. With the emergence of young, promising players such as Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis, and the health issues of the aging Scandrick, the move makes a lot of sense.
In fact, after the Cowboys drafted Awuzie in the second round of last year's draft it was rumored the Cowboys were looking to move Scandrick for extra draft picks. Instead, one year later, they have cut him to save some cap room.
Orlando Scandrick should have a market to find a new team elsewhere, but his time in Dallas has now come to a close.
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