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Can the Dallas Cowboys Meet Super Bowl Expectations in 2019?

John Williams

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Cowboys Wishlist: Wild Card Round Edition

In seven days the Dallas Cowboys will take on the New York Giants in their 2019 season opener. Not only does that game mark the beginning of the regular season, but it also marks the end of the talk and speculation about how the 2019 season will go for the Dallas Cowboys. Largely because of the 7-1 run the team went on to finish the 2018 season, which featured a division title and a playoff win, the expectations have risen to heights we haven't seen around here in a long time.

The Cowboys are taking a team into 2019 that is the most talented roster they've had during Head Coach Jason Garrett's eight-years at the helm. Most observers believe this team has the talent to make a Super Bowl run and Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett have put it out there all offseason and training camp that a Super Bowl is the goal.

It's rare to hear this team talk about anything other than the next practice or the next game. In years past when Garrett is asked about the expectations surrounding the team, he typically gives generic Garrett coach-speak and talks about how they need to worry about the next game or just focus on the things they can control. This year is a different kind of Garrett.

It could be that Garrett's coaching 2019 on the last year of his contract with an expectation that the Dallas Cowboys will make a serious run in the playoffs. From the top of the organization to the coaching staff, to a man, they've placed high expectations on the 2019 Dallas Cowboys and this looks like a team and a coaching staff that could make that happen.

Though there weren't many changes in the offseason to the squad, what they did change has a lot of people excited about the team's prospects this season.

Kellen Moore takes over as the offensive coordinator for Scott Linehan and everyone believes this will have a positive impact on the offense as a whole, but most importantly the passing game. Moore brings aggressive creativity to an offense that became a little too set in their ways. Moore's use of pre-snap motion, play-action passing, and a vertical passing game should make the Cowboys more aggressive on offense and help them find their way back into the top 10 offenses in the NFL.

The Cowboys return four of five starters along the offensive line, with the center position being the only difference from week one of last year to this year. Travis Frederick returns after a year-long lay off and immediately upgrades the offensive line from a skill and communication standpoint. Frederick's presence makes everything work better on the offense. Dak Prescott can trust the front of his pocket will be there when he drops back to pass and more importantly needs to step up to make a throw. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard can expect consistent excellence from the center position, which will upgrade the interior run blocking in 2019. They'll be able to get a better push in short-yardage situations with Frederick in the middle.

Another veteran who's returning after a year off is Jason Witten. Witten makes his return to the playing field after spending 2018 in the Monday Night Football booth. He may not be the explosive player he was in his prime, but he's as reliable a target as there is in the NFL. Witten still has the ability to win his matchups more often than not and gives Dak Prescott another weapon he can trust in the passing game.

Speaking of weapons, the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver group looks about as deep as any in the NFL. Prescott has developed a nice rapport with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. The addition of Randall Cobb and Devin Smith to a group with Tavon Austin gives the Dallas Cowboys a wide receiver group that has a ton of potential for explosive plays. Top to bottom, this is the best group of wide receivers that the Dallas Cowboys have had in a really long time.

Dak Prescott is about to be the beneficiary of the most talented offense he's had the pleasure of playing with, but the offense is going to thrive more also because of Dak Prescott's growth and development. Almost everyone who watched Prescott at training camp believes that he made significant improvements in his footwork under pressure and his deep passing ability. If he's improved those things even slightly when the Dallas Cowboys open the regular season, it makes the offense so much better moving forward.


With reports coming out yesterday that the Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliott have intensified negotiations with the hopes of having the NFL's leading rusher available for the start of the season, the Dallas Cowboys could have almost their entire roster available for the start of the season.

Aside from Robert Quinn and Randy Gregory who will be sitting out due to suspension, the Dallas Cowboys aren't missing any major pieces to their defense. They're bringing back pretty much everyone in their starting lineup from the end of the 2018 season.  That was a defense that was one of the 10 best units in the NFL. They've upgraded the depth through free agency and the draft, and when Robert Quinn returns, the Cowboys should have one of the more feared pass-rushing duos in the NFL.

It's a defense that looks ready to take the next step. If they can create more turnovers in 2019, they'll move from being a very good group to one of the best defenses in the NFL.

They have a team that is coming into the regular season relatively healthy. While Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and Amari Cooper have been dealing with injuries lately, they don't sound serious enough to keep them out of action for week one. DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Jones, and Tyrone Crawford are working into game shape but should be ready to go when the Cowboys face the Giants next Sunday afternoon.

Though many in the national media still believe the Philadelphia Eagles are the team to beat in the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys have a team just as capable of winning the division and making a serious run in the NFC. They're a team coming off an 8-2 finish to the season, including the playoffs, which would give any team confidence that they can make a run the next year. If the Cowboys are able to maintain a relative level of health, they'll be competitive in every game they play this season.

While the schedule looks tough, especially in the back half, there isn't a game on their schedule that isn't winnable for them. They've got all the pieces in place to play with every team in the NFL, including the New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, and Philadelphia Eagles. Though it's unlikely they'll win them all, they're a team that has what it takes to be a legit contender in the NFC.

Early in the offseason, I wrote that the Dallas Cowboys needed to take an all-in approach to the 2019 season and it looks like they're taking that approach. The trade for Robert Quinn and the signing of veteran free agents like Randall Cobb, Kerry Hyder, and Christian Covington make it evident that the Dallas Cowboys front office believes this team has what it takes to make a serious run to capture Lombardi number six. And for good reason. Though they're one of the youngest teams in the NFL, their stars have experienced a lot of success early in their careers in the regular season, they just need for that success to translate into playoff success.

Generally, I feel optimistic about the Dallas Cowboys, and at times probably more optimistic than I should be. It's far more difficult to find reasons not to be excited about the Dallas Cowboys in 2019. They've got a group that's built to win a lot of games this season and I think they'll do that. The Cowboys have a team that has the talent, the depth, and the potential for talent growth to be a real force in the NFL this year. The Dallas Cowboys will go on a deep run through the playoffs this year. Because of the schedule they have in the back half of the season, they'll reach the playoffs battle-tested and ready to withstand any challenges in the NFC Playoffs.

This is a really good football team with the potential to be the NFL's best in 2019. To answer the question above, the Dallas Cowboys can win the Super Bowl in 2019. It's nearly an impossible task to predict who will win the Super Bowl unless you're picking the New England Patriots, so I won't make that sort of prediction. The first step is for the Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs and I think they will accomplish that goal. Once they're in, they'll have as good a chance as anyone to win the Super Bowl.

But because the regular season is about to start, here's my prediction for the Dallas Cowboys. They'll go 11-5 and become the first back-to-back winner of the NFC East since 2004.


Dallas Cowboys optimist bringing factual reasonable takes to Cowboys Nation and the NFL Community. I wasn't always a Cowboys fan, but I got here as quick as I could. Make sure you check out the Inside The Cowboys Podcast featuring John Williams and other analysts following America's Team.

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Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Start 2-0, Will They Finally Make it Count?

Jess Haynie

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Report: Jason Garrett "Not Going Anywhere" with Possible Extension Coming Soon

Starting an NFL season 2-0 has always drawn headlines, and especially when it's as rare as it is for the Dallas Cowboys. The question now is if, unlike in years passed, the Cowboys are finally going to build something special on that solid foundation.

Over the last two weeks, wins against the New York Giants and Washington Redskins have given Dallas the doubly-good record of 2-0 both overall and in the NFC East. While neither team is seen as a contender this year, division games tend to go off script and be more competitive than what's on paper.

The Cowboys have handled their business so far this year and in impressive fashion. Can they keep it up?

Before 2019, Dallas has only had a 2-0 start three other times in the last 20 seasons. All of them occurred during Tony Romo's run as starting quarterback, but only once with Jason Garrett as head coach.

The most recent was in 2015. Coming on the heels of an impressive 12-4 finish in 2014 and the agony of the Dez Bryant "no catch" call in the playoffs, big things were expected in Dallas that year.

But even though the Cowboys moved to 2-0 with a Week 2 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the loss of Tony Romo to a broken collarbone in that game torpedoed the season. Dallas had to trot out the feckless trifecta of Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassell, and Kellen Moore at QB the rest of the year and only won two more games.

Cowboys Blog - Tony Romo Discusses Faith And Football With The Village Church

Former Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo

The other 2-0 starts for Tony Romo's Cowboys came in consecutive years from 2007 to 2008, again at times when expectations were high for the team based on perceived talent and upward momentum. Neither ended the way we hoped.

Coming off Romo's ascension to starting QB in 2006 and a surprising run to the playoffs, the Cowboys were one of the NFL's best teams the following year. They posted a 13-3 record in the regular season and were the top seed in the NFC for the postseason.

But that beautiful run ended in bitter disappointment when Dallas, despite enjoying a bye week and home field advantage, got shocked by the visiting Giants in their first playoff game.

Much like the 2015 season, Dallas went into 2008 looking to take things to the next level after a tough postseason exit. They actually started the year 3-0 and were looking like contenders again.

But again like 2015, a Romo injury struck a major blow to the team's efforts. A finger injury suffered in a bad overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals would cause Tony to miss the next three games. Dallas went from 4-1 to 5-4 during that absence.


Unfortunately, Romo's return did not right the ship that year. The Cowboys would suffer a horrific 1-3 slide in December and ultimately finish 9-7 and just outside of the playoff bubble. The season was capped with a humiliating 44-6 loss in Philadelphia.

Is Jason Garrett Losing the Cowboys Locker Room? 1

Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Jason Garrett

This brief history lesson may not mean much to some of you. After all, every season is its own story.

But while major media will bombard you with stats about how teams who start 2-0 typically have certain outcomes to their seasons, the Dallas Cowboys have often defied those odds. We've found creative ways to ruin hot starts and overcome bad ones over the last two decades.

What really strikes me about this 2019 season is the level of expectation and how it compares to 2007, 2008, and 2015. True, expectations are always high around here. But even the most objective onlookers couldn't help but have high hopes for the Cowboys in those years based on what had happened the previous season.

Between the strong play after adding Amari Cooper and advancing to the the second round of the 2018 playoffs, Dallas had good cause to expect big things this season. Their approach to offseason business, such as adding veterans Robert Quinn and Randall Cobb and locking up key players to lucrative business, suggested that the Cowboys were going all in to try and win a championship with this roster.

So far the hype has been validated. Say what you want about the opposition these first two weeks, but I go back to the well-established history of NFC East play and how the results have often defied logic. Funky things tend to happen in division games, but the Cowboys have handled their rivals so far as if they were any other NFL basement dwellers.

But while the 2-0 start and two divisions wins are a great base for the 2019 season, we have ample evidence of how askew things can go from here. Thankfully, Dak Prescott has already proven to have more durability than our last starting QB. But much like we saw in 2017, an injury at left tackle or some other key position can do its own damage.

While players like Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and others will likely have many more years to try and win in Dallas, this is still a critical year for Jason Garrett. Coaching on the final year of his contract, Garrett would likely not see a new one if the team has another collapse. How much disappointment the Jones family will stomach this year depends on the final result.

But if you've been following this team as long as I have, your feelings about this year likely transcend any single coach or player. You've been waiting almost 25 years now to see the Dallas Cowboys get back to glory, and right now feels like one of the best opportunities.

It's an exciting time, but that long wait also comes with a knowledge of past outcomes.

Hopefully, this year, the strong start is the beginning of something truly special.


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Inside The Numbers: Everything Points to Cowboys Win vs Dolphins

John Williams

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Tyron Smith, Byron Jones

On Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys (2-0) welcome the Miami Dolphins (0-2) to AT&T Stadium for week three of the NFL season. This game features two teams that are trending in vastly different directions. The Dallas Cowboys are one of the hottest teams to start the season and look to be positioning themselves for a run at the Super Bowl. The Miami Dolphins are heading the other direction as one of the worst teams in the NFL and positioning themselves for an opportunity to land the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft next spring.

While there are things the Dallas Cowboys can clean up, this game has the makings of a blowout at home against a Dolphins team that has allowed 102 points in their first two games.

The Dallas Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins have only played 14 times in the course of their history, with each winning seven of those contests. The Cowboys are 2-0 in the Jason Garrett era against the Dolphins with the last win coming in November of 2015.

That win in 2015 would be the last time that Tony Romo would start and win a game for the Dallas Cowboys. The next week against the Carolina Panthers, Romo would be lost for the season.

Though the NFL prides itself as an "any given Sunday" league because of the parity between teams, this is one of those games that has a Dallas Cowboys blowout win written all over it.

Points

With 66 points scored in two games, the Dallas Cowboys currently rank sixth in the NFL in points for. The top two teams in the league, the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots have each had a shot at the Dolphins. The Ravens scored 59 points in week one and the Patriots scored 43 in week two.

It stands to reason with Reshad Jones ruled out of Sunday's contest and Minkah Fitzpatrick now a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers that the Dallas Cowboys have a shot to score 40 points in this game. There's no reason to believe the Cowboys won't at least hit their 33 points per game average through the first two games of the season. Anything less than that would be the result of them taking their foot off the gas after generating a decent-sized lead.

On the flip side, the Dolphins have only scored 10 points in 2019. That was back in week one against the Ravens. In week two, they were shut out by the Patriots, which led to a change at the quarterback position. Josh Rosen will now be starting for the Dolphins, but their problems go beyond quarterback play, though it hasn't been good either.

Offensive Success Rate

The Miami Dolphins have run the fewest plays in the league and have the worst yards per play average in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys average 7.6 yards per play, which is the best average in the league.

The Miami Dolphins have a league-worst offensive success rate of just 31%, per Sharp Football Stats. The league average success rate is 47%. Sharp Football Stats defines a successful play as one that gains at least "40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down."

The Dallas Cowboys success rate of 57% is tied for first in the NFL through two weeks with the New England Patriots.

The Dolphins are going to have a really difficult time keeping up with the offensive efficiency of the Dallas Cowboys.

3 Stars from Dallas Cowboys Win over the Washington Redskins

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Devin Smith celebrates his touchdown against Washington Redskins cornerback Josh Norman (24) in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 15, 2019, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Deep Passing

Going into week two, the Miami Dolphins have been very susceptible to the deep passing game. Now with 2018 first-round draft pick Minkah Fitzpatrick off to Pittsburgh in a trade earlier this week, the Dolphins secondary just became even more suspect. In the first two weeks of the season, the Miami Dolphins have allowed Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady to complete 5 of 7 passes beyond 20 yards downfield for 207 yards and three touchdowns.

In week one of the season, Lamar Jackson averaged 16.2 yards per attempt on 20 attempts. 16.2!!! That's an insane number. Tom Brady, in week two, only averaged 9.4 yards per attempt against the Dolphins. That's also a really good number but was only good for fourth in the NFL in week two.

Under Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore the Dallas Cowboys haven't been shy about taking shots down the field in the passing game. Through two weeks, Dak Prescott's completed six passes beyond 20 yards downfield and has an adjusted completion percentage of 87.5%. He's been incredibly accurate throwing the ball deep and should have opportunities for more big plays against the 0-2 Dolphins.


Running Game

Heading to week three, the Miami Dolphins have allowed the most rushing yards per game of any team in the NFL. Now some of that is due to getting behind really quickly and by a large number against the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots. Though they've allowed a lot of yards, they've also allowed the most first downs by rush in the NFL with 21.

This bodes extremely well for a Dallas Cowboys offense that was able to build big leads against the New York Giants and Washington Redskins over the first couple of weeks. Those big leads in the second half allowed Ezekiel Elliott and the offensive line to make their mark with the running game and grind out the clock.

Per Warren Sharp Football Stats, the Baltimore Ravens had a 54% rushing success rate against the Dolphins in week one. In week two, the New England Patriots had a rushing success rate of 60%. Both weeks were well above the average rushing success rate around the NFL.

Though the Dallas Cowboys rushing success rate is right at the league average of 47%, they're averaging 4.7 yards per carry and should see their success rate climb in week three against the Dolphins.

Cowboys' Defense Effective Despite Giving up Empty Yards

Sep 8, 2019; Arlington, TX, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) is hit by Dallas Cowboys defensive end Demarcus Lawrence (90) during the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive Pressure

Among quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks in 2019, both newly named starter Josh Rosen and former starter Ryan Fitzpatrick rank in the top six of the most frequently pressured quarterbacks in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Their combined pressure rate of 44% would be the third most pressured in the NFL.

The 10 sacks between the two quarterbacks would tie for first in the NFL with Houston Texans Quarterback DeShaun Watson (who led the NFL in sacks last season.

Under pressure, Josh Rosen has a completion percentage of just 12.5% and he's thrown two interceptions. That's the worst completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks per PFF. Rosen has a passer rating of zero when pressured.

This doesn't bode well for the Miami Dolphins who will have to face DeMarcus Lawrence and Robert Quinn this week. An offensive line that has a lot of problems keeping the quarterback upright isn't going to be able to hold up against these two. If the Dolphins attempt to provide help on the edges, it will create opportunities for Maliek Collins and the rest of the interior defensive line.

This bodes well for a defense that has played well but hasn't looked like the dominant force many thought they'd be in the 2019 season. Facing the hapless Miami Dolphins, the Cowboys look like a team that's about to feast.

For the Dallas Cowboys, Dak Prescott has only been sacked one time.  He's getting the ball out much quicker in 2019 than he was in 2018. In 2019, Dak Prescott has the sixth-fastest time to attempt at 2.33 seconds per Pro Football Focus among quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks. In 2018, Prescott had the 10th slowest time at 2.66 seconds.  Per Pro Football Focus, Prescott is the least pressured quarterback in the NFL at this point of the season. He's only been pressured on 15.4% of his dropbacks.

Dak Prescott is making quicker decisions after the snap in 2019 because he has a greater understanding of what he's seeing before the snap. The Cowboys offense allows him to get a read of the defense with their use of pre-snap motion, which then allows Dak to know where he wants to go with the ball, once he's confirmed the coverage after the snap. This allows for Prescott to get rid of the ball much faster than he has in the past, which is why he's not getting pressured as much. Of course it helps that the offensive line is playing better to start the 2019 season than it was a year ago.

I don't see a way that the Miami Dolphins are going to be able to create enough consistent pressure to affect Prescott in the pocket. This week looks like another big game for Prescott and the passing offense.

✭ ✭ ✭ ✭ ✭

The Dallas Cowboys will win this game. With the betting line set at 21 points, it would be a tremendous upset if the Cowboys didn't walk away with the W. Everything points to the Cowboys putting up their third double-digit win of the season and should be able to walk to another 30 point game for the offense. The Miami Dolphins are in tank mode and won't be able to put up much of a fight. When teams tank, it can kill morale and after trading two of their former first-round picks in Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick, it's obvious that the Dolphins are looking to the 2020 NFL Draft.

Prediction

The Dallas Cowboys win this game in a rout and the offensive stars continue their excellent start to the season. The defense gets a couple of takeaways and begins to hit their stride in the sack department with the return of Robert Quinn.

Dallas Cowboys 41 - Miami Dolphins 9


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Cowboys’ Trysten Hill to Make Regular Season Debut vs Dolphins?

John Williams

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Can DT Trysten Hill Best Maliek Collins' Rookie Stats From 2016?

A lot has been made of the Dallas Cowboys' decision to make 2019 second-round pick Trysten Hill inactive for the first two games of the regular season. With Taco Charlton also being inactive, people attempted to compare the two to make broad generalizations about Hill's present and future in the NFL. The problem is these two are vastly different players in different situations.

Speaking to 105.3 The Fan in Dallas on Friday, Cowboys Vice President Stephen Jones talked about where Trysten Hill was in his development and ability. It sounds as if Hill is ready to make his regular-season debut for the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday against the Miami Dolphins.

Jon Machota on Twitter

Trysten Hill will make his NFL debut Sunday vs. Miami. Cowboys VP Stephen Jones on @1053thefan: "He's ready to go. It's time for him to go. Rod's fired up about what he can bring to the table here. He's had a really good week of practice.

With Antwaun Woods and Tyrone Crawford likely out for this game, the Dallas Cowboys could use some help on the interior defensive line. Christian Covington and Maliek Collins are the only true defensive tackles set to be active for the Cowboys, which makes Hill's debut a foregone conclusion. With Crawford and Woods dealing with injuries Hill will have the opportunity to play a lot against a Miami Dolphins offensive line that has allowed 10 sacks in their first two games.

Crawford and Woods' absences means the Dallas Cowboys will have around 40-50 snaps to be distributed to the rest of the defensive line. Christian Covington will get the first shot to play the 1-technique defensive tackle. Kerry Hyder and Joe Jackson will get some of those Tyrone Crawford snaps since they can play both on the interior and on the edge like Crawford can.


There will be opportunities for Hill, especially if the Dallas Cowboys can get out to a big lead. If he's active, which all signs indicate he will be, then the Cowboys' coaching staff will use this game to get Hill as much experience as possible.

Trysten Hill is a player that Rod Marinelli and even Kris Richard are really excited about. They believe that he has what it takes to be an elite defensive tackle in the NFL, he just needs to refine certain aspects of his game. Hill has elite quickness and get off on the snap. He's very good at getting penetration and causing disruption in the backfield. He needs to work on his technique and playing with better leverage when engaged with blockers, but the tools and the effort are there for Marinelli to turn him into the dominant 3-technique defensive tackle that they've been looking for.

Facing the Miami Dolphins on Sunday will is an excellent opportunity for Trysten Hill to get some experience and earn opportunities to be on the gameday roster in the future.

Trysten Hill has the skills to be a force for the Dallas Cowboys. With the depth that the Cowboys have along the defensive line, it's not always possible to bring everyone you have to the gameday roster. With injuries and earned opportunities, the time has come for Trysten Hill to get an opportunity to show his skills in the regular season. That's a good thing for the Dallas Cowboys. Not so much for Josh Rosen and the Miami Dolphins.


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