Some teams have a gaping hole or a never-ending carousel at quarterback. Luckily for the Cowboys, they are not one of those teams.
Dak Prescott enters his seventh season in 2022 and is coming off one of his best campaigns. Last season, he threw for 4,449 yards, a franchise-record 37 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. He also recorded a 68.8 completion percentage and a passer rating of 104.2, both of which ranked top-5 in the NFL.
Having one of the NFL's better quarterbacks means Dallas will have the quarterback advantage in most of its games in 2022. Here's a list of those games, plus the ones where the Cowboys will either have a slight or significant disadvantage at quarterback:
Advantage: Bears, Colts, Commanders, Eagles, Giants, Jaguars, Lions, Texans, Titans, Vikings
One perk of having a high-end quarterback on your team is your opponent likely has a worse quarterback. This is the case with the majority of games on Dallas’ schedule.
The Cowboys will have a significant advantage over the Bears, Texans and Jaguars. They have young, second-year quarterbacks who haven’t proven themselves in the NFL yet in Chicago’s Justin Fields, Houston’s Davis Mills and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence. Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts is entering his third season, but his second as the Eagles’ starter. He’s got potential but still has ways to go before reaching Prescott.
The Giants and Lions employ young veterans like Daniel Jones and Jared Goff, respectively. Jones has never been at Prescott’s level, while Goff’s best days are likely already behind him. The Colts will also start a veteran at quarterback in 37-year-old Matt Ryan. He’s still a quality starter, but his skill has declined since his MVP season in 2016. Ryan has also lost to Prescott’s Cowboys twice in the last two seasons.
The Prescott vs. Carson Wentz debate has long been settled, with the former coming out on top a while back. The new Washington quarterback improved from 2020 to 2021, but he’s still a tier below Prescott. Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill is serviceable but likely won’t lead the Titans to a championship. Tennessee already has his potential replacement lined up in rookie Malik Willis.
The closest quarterback to Prescott here is Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins. The advantage isn’t as big here, but it’s still an advantage. Weirdly, Cousins has beaten Prescott head-to-head but has lost to two Dallas backup quarterbacks in Andy Dalton and Cooper Rush.
Toss-up: Bengals, Rams
Prescott and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow had nearly identical production last season. Burrow threw for 4,611 yards, 34 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while Prescott threw for 4,449 yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Meanwhile, Stafford is a high-volume, high-risk passer. His 41 touchdowns ranked second in the NFL in 2021, but his 17 interceptions were the most of any quarterback.
All three of Prescott, Stafford and Burrow are on a similar level ability-wise, but the latter two made the Super Bowl last season. The Bengals and Rams won’t have a significant advantage at quarterback when they play Dallas, making these games a toss-up.
Disadvantage: Buccaneers, Packers
Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers are two of the best quarterbacks in the league. Rodgers is coming off back-to-back MVPs, while Brady is still playing at an elite level.
Both have also had massive success against the Cowboys in their careers. Rodgers is 8-2 against Dallas since becoming the Packers’ starter, while Brady is a perfect 6-0 against the Cowboys. It’s safe to say Dallas will not have the QB advantage against these teams.
Good article Nick, and a lot to unpack. One thing to point out, 4 of the 10 teams where Cowboys have your perceived advantage, at least on paper, are the other 3 teams in the NFC East. Which MAY translate to 6 wins right out of the gate and would give the Cowboys a big advantage for a playoff berth. Those inferior teams also reflect well for the good QB rating for DP.
However, when the level of COMPETITION is put in the mix, like what the QBR rating does (which, IMO, is a much better ranking system), DP drops off quite a bit. Very problematic is DP’s QBR rating BEFORE their final regular season game last year. One of the authors here, I think it was Jess?, rightly called it a “farce”, as the Eagles did not even show up, and DP had a huge game against second and third stringers. Well, the problem is, before that game, he was 17th in the QBR rankings. Obviously, this is NOT GOOD.
For me, the one comparison that really stands out is the Stafford “toss up”. Stafford’s QBR was incrementally much higher at 63.8 vs 54.6 for DP. Tannehill at 55.9 and even Wentz at 54.7 was higher. Keep in mind, before that last Philly “farce” game, DP was hovering around the 50 point range. BTW, ARod led the league at 69.1, followed by Brady at 68.1
Bottom line, IMO, unfortunately for us fans, DP is overrated.
Correction; “3 of the 10 teams”…
“Having one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks . . . ”
He’s consistently ranked 10th -15th. Not “one of the best”. One of the highest paid, sure.