DAL at SF: Offseason moves have prepared Cowboys to strike gold vs 49ers

As the Dallas Cowboys prepare to invade Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA this Sunday, they do so with a singular motive: Beat the 49ers.

The San Francisco 49ers are responsible for knocking the Dallas Cowboys out of the playoffs each of the last two seasons.

Choose any other game on the schedule that would mean more to the Cowboys from a revenge factor.

You can’t, can you?

The revenge isn’t there for the Philadelphia Eagles because the Cowboys have beaten them more often than not since Dak Prescott’s arrival.

It isn’t there for the other divisional teams (Giants and Commanders) either for the same reason: Dak owns them.

That’s not the case with the 49ers. Prescott holds a 2-2 record versus San Francisco in his career.

Two regular season wins back in 2016 and 2017 mean relatively nothing because the two losses have both been playoff games.

This article will hit topics surrounding the two playoff losses, and how the Cowboys have improved in specific areas for this exact matchup, hoping for that elusive victory.

Cowboys DT Mazi Smith

Rush Defense

This topic is more geared towards the 2021 Wildcard loss in Dallas than last year’s loss in San Francisco, but it applies to this Sunday.

The Cowboys defense has done well this season in three wins, and not so great in their one loss.

We can trust something that has happened 75% of the time, right?

Not so fast.

Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have the most creative rushing scheme in the entire NFL, and much better than anyone the Cowboys have faced yet this season.

Back in 2021, a key to the 49ers win was their ability to run the ball on Dallas for 169 yards and two touchdowns.

That was before the addition of the best running back in the NFL last season, Christian McCaffrey.

Dallas tightened up a bit in the Divisional Round matchup in 2022, but still gave up 113 yards and one dagger touchdown run by McCaffrey.

They couldn’t stop the run when it mattered most late in the game, and that’s what Dallas attempted to shore up this offseason.

Stephen Jones opened up the pocketbook to re-sign NT Johnathan Hankins, who was vital to the defense’s turnaround in stopping the rush.

Will McClay then doubled down by selecting NT Mazi Smith in the 1st round of the NFL Draft in April for even more reinforcements.

Hankins has been a monster in the interior of the defensive line, with Mazi chipping in 25% of the snaps on defense.

Mazi is getting better by the game, and making some plays versus the 49ers could show just how far he’s come.

Other big contributors to the rush defense are an invigorated DeMarcus Lawrence, a much improved Dorance Armstrong, and a rocket-fueled Micah Parsons.

Don’t underestimate an active Leighton Vander Esch, an upstart Damone Clark, and downhill safeties Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse, and Juanyeh Thomas.

All have played a large role in the turnaround, and let’s hope it continues this Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys defensive end Randy Gregory (94) reacts after a call went against the Cowboys during the first half of an NFL Wild Card playoff football game against the San Francisco 49ers at AT&T Stadium on Sunday, Jan. 16, 2022, in Arlington.

Penalties

In the two previous playoff games combined, the Cowboys have 21 penalties that have cost them 139 yards.

The 49ers, by comparison, were penalized 12 times for 88 yards in those same games.

It’s not just the yards lost due to penalty, but the inopportune times the penalties have occurred.

Several put the Cowboys behind the chains on offense, and many others gave the 49ers a new set of downs when they would otherwise be punting the ball away.

Mike McCarthy has put an emphasis on eliminating the penalties this season, especially the unforced errors that have erased big plays for Dallas, and equally extended drives for San Francisco.

Whatever McCarthy is doing, it’s working.

So far this season, eliminating the debacle in the desert of Arizona where they were flagged 13 times for 107 yards, Dallas is averaging 5.3 penalties for just 35 yards.

Maintaining discipline, and not extending drives for the 49ers offense will play a large part in the Cowboys chances for a victory.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott

3rd Down

In the two previous playoff games, the Cowboys have averaged just 15.5 points scored in those losses.

That stat is even more unbelievable when I tell you that Dallas has the highest scoring offense in the NFL over the past two seasons, averaging over 30 points per game.

I think I identified the problem, or at least a huge component of the problem.

Dallas’ 3rd down success rate on both sides of the ball has limited the offense in the previous two matchups with San Francisco.

Let’s start with the defensive side allowing Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy to convert 13 of 27 3rd down opportunities, a 48% clip.

That 48% conversion rate would rank 4th best in the NFL this season.

So far in 2023, the Cowboys’ defense has allowed only 15 conversions on 49 attempts for a 30% rate.

They’ve done this by stopping the run better on early downs, forcing offenses into 3rd & long situations where the Dallas pass rush can pin their ears back and rush.

Prescott and the offense converted just 10 of 29 3rd down attempts in the two playoff losses for a measly 34% conversion rate.

This season that has changed due to new play calling and a commitment to the running game.

Dallas currently ranks 1st in the league on 3rd down percentage with 51.6%, converting 32 out of 62 attempts.

The improvement can be attributed to a couple of factors.

First, Mike McCarthy calling plays has created more favorable 3rd downs and distances.

Perhaps a larger factor, the Cowboys actually have weapons on the field that they only wished they had last January.

CeeDee Lamb has made strides to be a top five wide receiver in the league. They added Brandin Cooks through trade.

Tony Pollard is healthy along with Michael Gallup, and the emergence of Jalen Tolbert, Jake Ferguson, and KaVontae Turpin as viable receiving weapons is a huge boost to the offense.

Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy

Prediction

I would love to sit here and have full confidence that the Cowboys will roll into San Francisco and emerge with a victory.

From an analysis standpoint, I try my best to take off my navy colored glasses and make unbiased predictions.

Dallas will play a great game, but they will drop their third straight to the 49ers, falling 23-19 to drop to 3-2.

Redzone problems will again bite the Cowboys on their flank after just one touchdown in five trips inside the 20.

The defense will again play masterfully, only to give up a late touchdown to Christian McCaffrey on a drive extended by a bad penalty to put the final stamp on the game.

However, we know this will just be a dress rehearsal for later in the season when the teams meet again in the playoffs.