Inside The Numbers: Everything Points to Cowboys Win vs Dolphins

On Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys (2-0) welcome the Miami Dolphins (0-2) to AT&T Stadium for week three of the NFL season. This game features two teams that are trending in vastly different directions. The Dallas Cowboys are one of the hottest teams to start the season and look to be positioning themselves for a run at the Super Bowl. The Miami Dolphins are heading the other direction as one of the worst teams in the NFL and positioning themselves for an opportunity to land the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft next spring.

While there are things the Dallas Cowboys can clean up, this game has the makings of a blowout at home against a Dolphins team that has allowed 102 points in their first two games.

The Dallas Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins have only played 14 times in the course of their history, with each winning seven of those contests. The Cowboys are 2-0 in the Jason Garrett era against the Dolphins with the last win coming in November of 2015.

That win in 2015 would be the last time that Tony Romo would start and win a game for the Dallas Cowboys. The next week against the Carolina Panthers, Romo would be lost for the season.

Though the NFL prides itself as an “any given Sunday” league because of the parity between teams, this is one of those games that has a Dallas Cowboys blowout win written all over it.

Points

With 66 points scored in two games, the Dallas Cowboys currently rank sixth in the NFL in points for. The top two teams in the league, the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots have each had a shot at the Dolphins. The Ravens scored 59 points in week one and the Patriots scored 43 in week two.

It stands to reason with Reshad Jones ruled out of Sunday’s contest and Minkah Fitzpatrick now a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers that the Dallas Cowboys have a shot to score 40 points in this game. There’s no reason to believe the Cowboys won’t at least hit their 33 points per game average through the first two games of the season. Anything less than that would be the result of them taking their foot off the gas after generating a decent-sized lead.

On the flip side, the Dolphins have only scored 10 points in 2019. That was back in week one against the Ravens. In week two, they were shut out by the Patriots, which led to a change at the quarterback position. Josh Rosen will now be starting for the Dolphins, but their problems go beyond quarterback play, though it hasn’t been good either.

Offensive Success Rate

The Miami Dolphins have run the fewest plays in the league and have the worst yards per play average in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys average 7.6 yards per play, which is the best average in the league.

The Miami Dolphins have a league-worst offensive success rate of just 31%, per Sharp Football Stats. The league average success rate is 47%. Sharp Football Stats defines a successful play as one that gains at least “40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.”

The Dallas Cowboys success rate of 57% is tied for first in the NFL through two weeks with the New England Patriots.

The Dolphins are going to have a really difficult time keeping up with the offensive efficiency of the Dallas Cowboys.

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Devin Smith celebrates his touchdown against Washington Redskins cornerback Josh Norman (24) in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 15, 2019, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Deep Passing

Going into week two, the Miami Dolphins have been very susceptible to the deep passing game. Now with 2018 first-round draft pick Minkah Fitzpatrick off to Pittsburgh in a trade earlier this week, the Dolphins secondary just became even more suspect. In the first two weeks of the season, the Miami Dolphins have allowed Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady to complete 5 of 7 passes beyond 20 yards downfield for 207 yards and three touchdowns.

In week one of the season, Lamar Jackson averaged 16.2 yards per attempt on 20 attempts. 16.2!!! That’s an insane number. Tom Brady, in week two, only averaged 9.4 yards per attempt against the Dolphins. That’s also a really good number but was only good for fourth in the NFL in week two.

Under Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore the Dallas Cowboys haven’t been shy about taking shots down the field in the passing game. Through two weeks, Dak Prescott’s completed six passes beyond 20 yards downfield and has an adjusted completion percentage of 87.5%. He’s been incredibly accurate throwing the ball deep and should have opportunities for more big plays against the 0-2 Dolphins.

Running Game

Heading to week three, the Miami Dolphins have allowed the most rushing yards per game of any team in the NFL. Now some of that is due to getting behind really quickly and by a large number against the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots. Though they’ve allowed a lot of yards, they’ve also allowed the most first downs by rush in the NFL with 21.

This bodes extremely well for a Dallas Cowboys offense that was able to build big leads against the New York Giants and Washington Redskins over the first couple of weeks. Those big leads in the second half allowed Ezekiel Elliott and the offensive line to make their mark with the running game and grind out the clock.

Per Warren Sharp Football Stats, the Baltimore Ravens had a 54% rushing success rate against the Dolphins in week one. In week two, the New England Patriots had a rushing success rate of 60%. Both weeks were well above the average rushing success rate around the NFL.

Though the Dallas Cowboys rushing success rate is right at the league average of 47%, they’re averaging 4.7 yards per carry and should see their success rate climb in week three against the Dolphins.

Sep 8, 2019; Arlington, TX, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) is hit by Dallas Cowboys defensive end Demarcus Lawrence (90) during the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive Pressure

Among quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks in 2019, both newly named starter Josh Rosen and former starter Ryan Fitzpatrick rank in the top six of the most frequently pressured quarterbacks in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Their combined pressure rate of 44% would be the third most pressured in the NFL.

The 10 sacks between the two quarterbacks would tie for first in the NFL with Houston Texans Quarterback DeShaun Watson (who led the NFL in sacks last season.

Under pressure, Josh Rosen has a completion percentage of just 12.5% and he’s thrown two interceptions. That’s the worst completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks per PFF. Rosen has a passer rating of zero when pressured.

This doesn’t bode well for the Miami Dolphins who will have to face DeMarcus Lawrence and Robert Quinn this week. An offensive line that has a lot of problems keeping the quarterback upright isn’t going to be able to hold up against these two. If the Dolphins attempt to provide help on the edges, it will create opportunities for Maliek Collins and the rest of the interior defensive line.

This bodes well for a defense that has played well but hasn’t looked like the dominant force many thought they’d be in the 2019 season. Facing the hapless Miami Dolphins, the Cowboys look like a team that’s about to feast.

For the Dallas Cowboys, Dak Prescott has only been sacked one time.  He’s getting the ball out much quicker in 2019 than he was in 2018. In 2019, Dak Prescott has the sixth-fastest time to attempt at 2.33 seconds per Pro Football Focus among quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks. In 2018, Prescott had the 10th slowest time at 2.66 seconds.  Per Pro Football Focus, Prescott is the least pressured quarterback in the NFL at this point of the season. He’s only been pressured on 15.4% of his dropbacks.

Dak Prescott is making quicker decisions after the snap in 2019 because he has a greater understanding of what he’s seeing before the snap. The Cowboys offense allows him to get a read of the defense with their use of pre-snap motion, which then allows Dak to know where he wants to go with the ball, once he’s confirmed the coverage after the snap. This allows for Prescott to get rid of the ball much faster than he has in the past, which is why he’s not getting pressured as much. Of course it helps that the offensive line is playing better to start the 2019 season than it was a year ago.

I don’t see a way that the Miami Dolphins are going to be able to create enough consistent pressure to affect Prescott in the pocket. This week looks like another big game for Prescott and the passing offense.

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The Dallas Cowboys will win this game. With the betting line set at 21 points, it would be a tremendous upset if the Cowboys didn’t walk away with the W. Everything points to the Cowboys putting up their third double-digit win of the season and should be able to walk to another 30 point game for the offense. The Miami Dolphins are in tank mode and won’t be able to put up much of a fight. When teams tank, it can kill morale and after trading two of their former first-round picks in Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick, it’s obvious that the Dolphins are looking to the 2020 NFL Draft.

Prediction

The Dallas Cowboys win this game in a rout and the offensive stars continue their excellent start to the season. The defense gets a couple of takeaways and begins to hit their stride in the sack department with the return of Robert Quinn.

Dallas Cowboys 41 – Miami Dolphins 9