Well, here we go again. The Dallas Cowboys are set to face off against the San Francisco 49ers, looking to snap a four-game losing streak against their longtime rivals, and Dak Prescott holds the keys to their chances of doing just that.
It goes without saying, but Prescott is the single-largest driving force behind Cowboys wins and losses, and that is especially true when they are underdogs.
Dallas has proven that they do not have the talent defensively to deliver wins when Prescott has an off-game — you can bank on that continuing to be true with an offense as deadly as San Francisco’s.
Cowboys defensive rankings:
26.2 PPG (#25)
372.7 YPG (#30)
5.0 Yards Per Rush (#30)
147.4 Rush YPG (#31)
65.5% Comp %: (#23)
Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy should be able
In short, we know Prescott needs to ball out for the Cowboys to win: the question is, can he do it against this 49ers squad?
Ball In 4’s Court: Dak Prescott Holds the Keys Today
(Dak Prescott has a 2-4 record against the 49ers)
I, for one, am a big numbers guy, and there are some fascinating ones when it comes to Prescott’s impact in this Sunday showdown.
Let’s start with some league-wide ones.
San Francisco’s defense has held opposing QB’s to a sub-100 quarterback rating in five games, and their point differential is +12 in those games.
In the three games where the opposing QB has a 100+ QBR, that point differential is cut in half to +6 (a 50% difference). Michael Penix is the only one to pull off a win against San Fran, and he had a stellar 118.9 QBR performance in that one.
25/34
213 Pass Yards
3 Pass TD
118.9 Pass Rating
CERTIFIED BALLER
If we flip that stat over to Dallas, the results are staggering. In the three games where Dak Prescott has posted a 100+ QBR, the Cowboys are 4-0 (including Houston win with 99.8 QBR) with a +42-point differential; in the six games under that, they are 1-5 with a -28-point differential.
San Francisco has only lost, or gotten close to losing, when the opposing QB lights it up, and Dallas is undefeated when Prescott lights it up. The equation for a Cowboys win today is pretty clear, considering that.
If we take a step back and look at Dak’s career against the Niners, we see the same trend, but even more clearly.
In the Prescott era, Dallas is undefeated against San Francisco when his QBR exceeds 100, and winless against them when he doesn’t. There’s no reason to think that trend will suddenly end today, so keep an eye on that QBR if you want to know which team is going to come out on top.
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