Cowboys vs Jets: Overconfidence has bitten us before

Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season brings the New York Jets to Texas to face off versus the Cowboys in AT&T Stadium.

This matchup has lost much of it’s luster with Jets QB Aaron Rodgers being lost for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered on Monday Night Football.

The Cowboys and their fans were hoping to finally defeat Rodgers in AT&T Stadium for the first time in his career, but those hopes are now dashed.

A victory seemed like a foregone conclusion, but history tells us that we were more likely to be upset than ecstatic after the game.

Rodgers’ absence shouldn’t sway predictions to a 100% chance of a Cowboys win, and that same history should be a precautionary tale for all of us.

The Cowboys have lost their last three matchups versus the Jets dating back to 2011, and the quarterback and surrounding pieces were all different each time.

Dallas hasn’t knocked off the Jets since Tony Romo was in his first full season as the Cowboys starting quarterback.

Talk about a trip back in time. Since that 2007 meeting, Dallas has been on the wrong end of the scoreboard in 2011, 2015, and 2019.

Let’s take a look back at these previous three losses, and how the outlooks at the time compare to this week’s matchup.

Image from New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys on September 11, 2001

2011 Week 1

Date: 9/11/2001
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Record: DAL (0-0), NYJ (0-0)
Result: NYJ 27, DAL 24

On the 10 year anniversary of 9/11, there was no better matchup than America’s Team visiting New York.

Dallas was excited for the return of starting QB Tony Romo, who was lost the previous season to injury.

The Jets were looking to build on an AFC Championship Game loss the year before under QB Mark Sanchez.

New York had a promising offensive coordinator that you may know. His name is Brian Schottenheimer, and he had two new toys to play with.

The Jets added Santonio Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson to the offense, and both showed what they could do that night versus Dallas.

Dallas took the opening drive all the way down the field, and finished it off with a touchdown pass to Dez Bryant.

A field goal by Dan Bailey gave Dallas a 10-0 lead, and they looked to be fully in control.

The two teams exchanged scores for the next two quarters, and Dallas had a 24-10 lead in the 4th quarter.

Then the wheels fell off.

The Jets rattled off the game’s final 17 points in the 4th quarter, including the game-winning field goal for the 27-24 win.

Dec 19, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) breaks the tackle of New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis (24) to score a touchdown in the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

2015 Week 15

Date: 12/19/2015
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Record: DAL (4-9), NYJ (8-5)
Result: NYJ 19, DAL 16

The 2015 matchup found Dallas in a state of evaluation, and not competing for a playoff spot.

Star QB Tony Romo suffered a broken collarbone very early in the year, and it basically doomed the Cowboys’ whole season.

Another offensive coordinator you might know got the start for this game. His name is Kellen Moore.

I’m not sure how fair it is to judge the Cowboys with Romo not in the game because his backups were putrid.

Moore threw three interceptions and was replaced by Matt Cassel, who only completed three passes along with an interception of his own.

The lone bright spot for the Cowboys was RB Darren McFadden, who reached 100 yards rushing on just 16 carries.

New York, led by veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, were in the thick of the Wildcard race, and used that motivation to leave Dallas with a win.

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott is tackled during a game vs the New York Jets on 10/13/2019

2019 Week 6

Date: 10/13/2019
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Record: DAL (3-2), NYJ (0-4)
Result: NYJ 24, DAL 22

Perhaps the best example of never underestimating your opponent is the latest matchup with the Jets.

Dallas visited MetLife Stadium in October of 2019, and were all but guaranteed to improve their record to 4-2 versus a winless Jets team.

Sam Darnold and the Jets defense had other plans.

A 92 yard touchdown pass from Darnold to wide receiver formerly known as Robby Anderson (since changed to Chosen Anderson) gave the Jets a 14-3 lead.

The Cowboys entered halftime with a 21-6 deficit, and would only have scored three points if not for a 62 yard field goal by Brett Maher at the end of the 2nd quarter.

A slow start can only be attributed to a team not being ready, and that complacency could be because they were heavily favored to win.

Dak Prescott led a furious comeback that fell just short after a failed two point attempt with less than a minute to play in the game.

Let the last three games versus the Jets, especially the latest loss, be a lesson to not underestimate the team that is coming to AT&T Stadium this Sunday.

Even without Aaron Rodgers, the Jets pose a formidable matchup, and history shows us they cannot be overlooked.