Dak Prescott is going to have to deal with a different-looking offensive line while Tyler Smith is out. We all know Tyler Smith is the best player on the Cowboys line, and replacing him with T.J. Bass is a downgrade, and it doesn’t matter how you try to look at it.
What I wanted to know was how much of a downgrade Dallas can live with before it starts affecting Dak Prescott.
So I went down a rabbit hole of Dak Prescott’s stats using NFL Next Gen Stats numbers. I wanted to see what trait Dak has that could help and the one I found was his average time to throw.
The number I found was 2.78 seconds. That is roughly how long Dak has needed, on average, to get the football out over the last several seasons.
Dak Prescott Has Been Pretty Consistent
NFL Next Gen Stats measures the average time to throw from the snap until the football leaves the quarterback’s hand.
Here’s what Dak Prescott’s numbers have looked like over the last eight years:
- 2018: 2.82 seconds
- 2019: 2.88
- 2020: 2.77
- 2021: 2.75
- 2022: 2.72
- 2023: 2.71
- 2024: 2.79
- 2025: 2.82
I weighted these numbers by his pass attempts, and it came out to about 2.78 seconds per throw.
As I looked at that number, I became less worried about Dallas needing T.J. Bass to come in and somehow play like Tyler Smith. They don’t need that from him.
Dak Prescott has played behind a lot of different offensive line combinations over the years, and with different coordinators, receivers, injuries, and lineup changes. However, his time to throw has stayed about the same.
If you look at the numbers, you will see there were seasons when he sped up a little and others where he hung on to the ball a little bit longer, but they weren’t massive swings.
No matter the season, the ball gets out in under three seconds. That should be enough to make people feel a little less uneasy.
The Cowboys Can’t Lose Immediately
If T.J. Bass gets beat after three seconds and Dak Prescott has already gotten rid of the ball, no one will remember the rep, but if someone comes through clean at 1.8 seconds, we will all be talking.
You can install more quick game, run the ball, slide protection, or have Dak Prescott get the ball out faster. At some point, we all know someone has to block.
Dak Prescott has already shown us he can speed things up when he has to. In 2023, his time to throw was 2.71 seconds, which tells us he is capable of playing faster if the team wants to lean into that kind of offense while Tyler Smith is out.
Let CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Ryan Flournoy do something after the catch instead of having Dak Prescott sit back waiting on a deep route.
Just get through the next 4–6 weeks.
2.78 Seconds Is the Number
None of us thought we would be without our best offensive lineman to start the season, but after going through the stats, I don’t look at the situation the same way.
Dallas doesn’t need T.J. Bass to become something he’s not. Just be average or better and that will be enough, and I know he can do that.
All we need to see is 2.78 seconds of a clean pocket. Don’t let defenders run through untouched. I’m looking at you, Terence Steele. Make teams beat you instead of giving them free shots at Dak.
If Dallas can manage that, Dak Prescott has been doing the rest of what’s needed for a long time.
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