The NFL season is here, so before Week 1 gives everyone, including myself, different ideas, I’m going to take a shot at predicting this year’s NFL Awards.
I won’t be taking the favorite in every category, but I’m also not throwing out random long shots just to be that guy. I will make some calls on dark horses, but there is reasons I can actually buy into for those guys.
MVP: Joe Burrow
Dark horse: Dak Prescott
When Joe Burrow is healthy, the numbers are elite. The question that will weigh heavily on this prediction is if Cincinnati wins enough games. If the Bengals take the AFC North and Burrow gets at least 4,500 yards and 35+ touchdowns, he’ll be right at the top of it.
Dak Prescott is my favorite dark horse on the board. The Dallas offense has proven to be a high output offense. If the defense holds up its end and the Cowboys get to 11 or 12 wins, Prescott will be in the race.
Offensive Player of the Year: Jahmyr Gibbs
Dark Horse: De’Von Achane
Jahmyr Gibbs is the pick I feel best about.
David Montgomery is gone, and Gibbs has already put up more than 5,000 scrimmage yards in three seasons without being a true workhorse back every week. More touches equals a monster year.
De’Von Achane had 1,838 scrimmage yards last season in 16 games. Miami’s new-look offense could lean heavily on him with a sketchy quarterback situation. The only thing that scares me is his health.
If he gets through the season, 2,000 yards could be there for the taking.
Defensive Player of the Year: Will Anderson Jr.
Dark horse: Nik Bonitto
Myles Garrett will be almost everyone’s pick, but I’m taking Will Anderson Jr.
Anderson finished second last year, and Houston has enough talent around him that offenses can’t spend the whole game worrying about one guy. I guess the same can be said for the Los Angeles Rams, but I’m still picking Anderson.
Nik Bonitto had 14 sacks without playing every defensive snap. Give him more snaps and let’s see if those 14 sacks were just the beginning of something special.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: De’Zhaun Stribling
Dark Horse: Jeremiyah Love
De’Zhaun Stribling could be the guy in San Francisco, but Jeremiyah Love could be in the running.
I think Stribling has the more interesting ceiling, even with the weapons the 49ers have at their disposal. Targets could be a concern, but I like what I saw from Stribling in the preseason.
Kyle Shanahan has a great track record of getting useful players involved. Stribling will earn a bigger role early once the season gets going and his speed and playmaking ability could turn a modest role into a season voters can’t ignore.
Jeremiyah Love’s path to this award depends on if he gets enough consistent touches early on. Running backs can make a quick impact, especially when they are trusted near the goal line and in the passing game. Love is reliable in both of these aspects.
If Love puts together enough explosive plays and weekly production, I feel like he will be the kind of candidate the voters can’t leave off the ballot.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Caleb Downs
Dark Horse: Cashius Howell
I know the history. A safety hasn’t won this award since 1990. I’m taking Downs anyway.
Dallas should be able to move him around instead of asking him to sit deep all game. We will watch him be put in the box, blitz, cover the slot, and just get him around the football. If they use him that way, I think he’ll make enough plays to get noticed.
Cashius Howell is the dark horse is the dark horse I like for defensive rookie of the year.
Cincinnati took him in the second round, but he has a chance to put up the one number that gets rookie defenders noticed in a hurry: sacks. He was a problem throughout Bengals camp, and Cincinatti has a big opening after Trey Hendrickson left.
If Howell gets into the eight to ten sack range as a rookie, he won’t stay a dark horse for long.
Comeback Player of the Year: Patrick Mahomes
Dark Horse: Fred Warner
I wanted to make this more interesting, but Patrick Mahomes just makes sense.
If he comes back from his knee injury, looks like himself, and Kansas City starts winning again, it’s going to take a monumental season from someone else to take this award. The combination of quarterback position, spotlight, and his track record makes him extremely difficult to bet against.
Then there was Fred Warner and I think he could have the best case against Mahomes.
If he comes back looking like the same player he was before the injury, voters won’t need long to remember how good he is. A dominant season from the middle of that defense could make Warner the emotional and statistical favorite by the end of the year.
Coach of the Year: Brian Schottenheimer
Dark Horse: DeMeco Ryans
Schottenheimer has to win. I feel like that is the reality of what this comes down to.
Nine wins won’t do it. If Dallas gets to 11 or 12, wins the NFC East and the defense stops being a weekly problem, he’ll get plenty of credit. Turning the Cowboys into a complete team would give him the kind of narrative that usually carries this award.
DeMeco Ryans probably needs Houston to be one of the best teams in football, but that’s not an impossible ask. I feel like if the Texans are still fighting for the No.1 seed late in December, and Ryans has the defense playing elite, that will speak for itself.
Protector of the Year: Penei Sewell
Dark Horse: Tyler Linderbaum
Penei Sewell is already one of the best lineman in football. If he handles the move to left tackle without much drop-off, that should be enough to keep him near the top of the voting. If Detroit’s offense takes another step forward, this importance to the entire offense will be impossible to miss.
Tyler Linderbaum doesn’t have Sewell’s name recognition, but that’s exactly why I like him as a dark horse.
He has the chance to dominate from the middle, where every protection call and run concept starts. If the Raiders’ offense can control games and Linderbaum is consistent in winning the point of attack, voters may give an interior lineman the attention he deserves.
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