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At 3-2, Cowboys Playoff Odds Tighten Up, but Hope Persists

When most looked at the schedule prior to the season, the last two games were huge question marks for most. Facing the New Orleans Saints and the Green Bay Packers in back-to-back weeks would be a tall task for any team in the NFL. After starting out 3-0 the Cowboys have to be a bit disappointed to be staring at a .500 record if things don’t go like they hope against the New York Jets in week six.

The combined record of the only two teams to beat the Dallas Cowboys in 2019 is 8-2. I think many hoped the Cowboys would be able to start the season at least 4-1 with the way the schedule looks at the end of the season. Now at 3-2, the Cowboys have very little margin for error moving forward and will have to steal a game or two that they aren’t supposed to win.

The easiest path to the playoffs, as it is every year is to win your division and the Dallas Cowboys are off to a good start on that front. They’re tied for first in the division and are 2-0 against the division. They’ll play the Philadelphia Eagles in week seven. These next two games will be huge for the Cowboys and their hopes at making the playoffs.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, from 1990 to 2013, teams that start the season 3-2 have a 50% shot at making the playoffs. Win in week six and the Cowboys chances of making the playoffs jump to 62%. Win the next two and the Cowboys increase their chances of making the playoffs to 75%. Getting a win over the Eagles to get to 5-2 would really help them get into a great position to make the playoffs.

PlayoffStatus.com, which tracks the playoff probabilities for every NFL team, has the Cowboys at a 46% chance to make the playoffs. They still have four divisional games that will be huge to determining whether or not the Cowboys will be playing in January.

Things will always look bleak when your favorite team is in the middle of a losing streak, but the Dallas Cowboys still have a great shot at making the playoffs this season. At this point, they only need to go 7-4 to get to them to 10-6. There will be some tough contests along the way, but if they can play a more consistent game from start to finish, the Cowboys should be able to win enough games to get in the tournament.

What do you think?

John Williams

Written by John Williams

Dallas Cowboys optimist bringing factual reasonable takes to Cowboys Nation and the NFL Community. I wasn't always a Cowboys fan, but I got here as quick as I could.

Make sure you check out the Inside The Cowboys Podcast featuring John Williams and other analysts following America's Team.

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