The Dallas Cowboys are inching toward their fifth win in a row.
The only thing that stands in their way is the Buffalo Bills and their push to make the playoffs this year.
Quarterback Dak Prescott is, in my opinion, leading the way in the MVP race but is objectively leading the league in touchdowns.
A high-scoring game is possible if both teams limit penalties and turnovers.
While Buffalo Bills Quarterback Josh Allen has been prone to turnovers (17), he has been better as of last week.
The Dallas Cowboys defense needs to step up to slow down its playmakers and make it a difficult day like last Sunday night.
For the record, I'm picking the Cowboys, but I would feel more confident if they could keep these three players in check.
Buffalo plays with two runners, but it begins with Cook
The Dallas Cowboys defense sits middle of the pack against the run thus far this season.
At first glance, you may think to yourself that being average won't get it done.
However, this year, compared to years past, is distinctly different.
Nevertheless, James Cook presents a dual threat problem similar to Tony Pollard. He catches the ball equally as well as he runs.
That's where the problem lies.
So far this season, Cook averages 4.8 yards a carry with 789 rushing yards. His 38 receptions for 392 yards pump up his overall effectiveness.
Josh Allen & James Cook (25-yd TD)
Cook has been targeted on over 35% of his routes in every game since Joe Brady took over as the Bills OC in Week 11 (0 such games in Weeks 1-10).
🔹 Weeks 1-10: 24 rec, 222 yds, TD
🔹 Weeks 11-13: 11 rec, 123 yds, 2 TD#BUFvsKC | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/hyu6krqaTP— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 10, 2023
From Dallas' viewpoint, the best running back they've played this year was San Francisco 49ers All-Pro Christian McCaffery.
Looking at the score in that game, you would have been within your right to assume he had an elite-level game.
If you did, that would have been an inaccurate assumption. Dallas' defense was up to the task in that game, holding McCaffery to 78 total yards that day.
Let the record show that James and Christian are on different playing hemispheres.
But you still want to slow him down to make this offense one-dimensional.
For me, you do that by taking away the easiest option for Josh Allen, and that's the guy he hands the ball off to.
The rookie, Dalton Kincaid, has been another safety blanket for Josh Allen
Whether we believe it or not, Dallas had some interest in Dalton Kincaid, the rookie tight end from Utah.
So far, he's had an up-and-down season but enough production to justify his first-round status.
Considering we've received minimal contributions from our first-round pick, Mazi Smith, and a second-round pick, Luke Schoonmaker, I would have taken what Kincaid was offering.
Allen looks for Kincaid on checkdowns, especially when Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are tied up.
His stats are pedestrian to a certain degree, but they also represent chain movers.
So far this season, 61 receptions from 71 targets have efficiency written all over it.
Not to mention the 495 receiving yards stand as 2nd behind Sam LaPorta as a rookie tight end, again another Cowboys draft interest.
Most receiving yards by a a rookie this season:
Puka Nacua – 1,113
Jordan Addison – 713
Tank Dell – 709
Sam LaPorta – 702
Zay Flowers – 673
Rashee Rice – 663
Josh Downs – 612
Jayden Reed – 540
Dalton Kincaid – 495
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 493— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) December 14, 2023
Kincaid scored a 93.4 quarterback rating when the ball came his way. He's also spending almost 60% of his snaps in the slot.
To top it off, he's accounted for only two drops. The offensive coordinator is game-planning him open.
Dallas will likely line up a combination of their safety group while sprinkling in Markquese Bell in coverage on the rookie from Utah.
How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time is the answer.
The Cowboys have to make sure Allen dinking and dunking to Kincaid doesn't make their defense the elephant.
While not the only deep threat, Khalil Shakir is one to watch
I bet you thought I would mention Diggs and Davis more than I have.
We know and understand what those guys stand for. They are the top two targets for Josh Allen, with targets of 131 for Stefon and 66 for Gabe.
However, there's something to be said for someone who is averaging 16.2 yards per catch.
That's what Khalil Shakir has been producing thus far.
The back end of the Cowboys defense is good but not great, especially if Donovan Wilson is playing that deep half of the field.
Like Kincaid, when he gets on the field, he plays exclusively in the slot at 78.4 of his snaps.
So, we'll see a lot of Jourdan Lewis lining up against him. Lewis is aggressive and plays with a lot of pride.
Granted, he doesn't have the top-end speed that Shakir walks around with at 4.43 in his legs, but he's always up for the challenge.
Jourdan Lewis (29.1) was the lowest graded corner in the NFL this week allowing 4/5 receptions for 69 yards.
He was also the lowest graded player in coverage among all positions (27.5).
— Defy (@defytalkcowboys) December 13, 2023
The defensive line for the Dallas Cowboys will need to get home quick, fast, and in a hurry.
They need to get Josh Allen to rush his throws as much as possible. If that happens, a mistake will follow.
If Allen has more than 2 or 3 mistakes in this game, the three skilled players I mentioned above will be null and void.
