The biggest opportunity of the season is finally here for the Dallas Cowboys as they host the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football.
Dallas lost the first matchup of the season at Lincoln Financial Field, and the rematch is filled with opportunity.
There is an opportunity to take over first place in the NFC East.
A win would tie the two teams' records at 10-3 with four games left in the season, but Dallas would hold the tiebreaker for now due to a better division record.
There is an opportunity to clear some brush out of the way on the path to a possible number one seed in the conference.
If both teams win the remainder of their games, Philadelphia will hold the number one seed because of a better conference record, but just one slip-up
None of this posturing has even accounted for a San Francisco 49ers team that also sits with a 9-3 record, and holds head-to-head tiebreakers over both Philadelphia and Dallas.
That's a discussion for a further date as the playoffs grow nearer, but what we can talk about today is just what the Dallas Cowboys need to accomplish Sunday night to walk off the field with a victory.
It is widely considered that the top three teams in the NFC are the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys.
Dallas and Philadelphia both got blown out by San Francisco, and the Eagles won the first matchup over the Cowboys.
The Cowboys enter this game needing to prove they can beat Philadelphia and avoid getting swept.
Let's dive into the keys to victory for the Dallas Cowboys on their home field on Sunday Night Football.
Win the 3rd Down Battle
This might seem like a chalk take, but when you look closer at the numbers, you see just how close these two teams are when it comes to third.
On offense, at least.
Dallas and Philadelphia ranks second and third, respectively when it comes to offensive third downs converted.
The Cowboys come in right behind Buffalo at 48.5%, and Philadelphia rounds out the top three with 47.9% conversions.
What the Cowboys and their fans need to take into account is that the Eagles convert third downs at a higher rate on the road than they do at home.
Philadelphia comes into the game with an NFL-high 52.9% 3rd down conversion rate as the visiting team.
Dallas lands yet another counter-punch as they rank as the NFL's best converting third downs at home, tallying an incredible 53.1% of their attempts.
On the defensive side is where we encounter a huge discrepancy.
Dallas currently ranks 10th in the league in defensive third down conversions, allowing just 36.9% of opponent's attempts to be successful.
Their rank increases when you consider how they've fared as the home team, dropping the opponent's conversion percentage to just 32.4%.
The Cowboys' advantage is apparent when I tell you that the Eagles are the absolute worst team in the league allowing third downs to be converted.
Philadelphia ranks 32nd in the NFL, allowing a whopping 47.3% third down conversion rate.
If there were any chink in the Eagles' armor, third down is the time to strike, and winning the third down battle should lead to a victory.
Contain Hurts In the Pocket
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is a force to be reckoned with because of his ability to maneuver himself out of the pocket while under pressure.
He uses his mobility to extend plays and allow his stable of pass catchers to find space to get open, even versus sticky coverage.
Hurts may not be having a stellar season at the same level as last year, but he is still a playmaker with other playmakers at his disposal.
If Hurts is allowed to escape the pocket, it gives him more opportunity to evade the rush and look downfield to find AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, or Dallas Goedert for big gains.
Containing him in the pocket will require discipline on the defensive side which the Cowboys have not shown this season.
Dallas has been susceptible to allowing quarterbacks to escape the pocket.
The problem is that the Cowboys' defense is so aggressive on the edges, that they tend to completely overrun the pocket.
This allows the opposing quarterback to step up into the pocket past the rush, and it creates running lanes should the quarterback choose to take advantage of them.
If Dallas can contain Hurts in the pocket and force him to hold the football longer, he is prone to mistakes.
This is evidenced by his league-worst 1.3 turnovers per game.
Put the clamps on Hurts, and he will give you one.
Seize Every Opportunity
When two teams are so talented and evenly matched, the difference between victory and defeat is often very small.
Little things matter, and fundamentals come into play.
This is especially true in division games where the teams know each other so well.
Opportunity seems to be the theme of this article, and it's also the Cowboys' theme this season.
HC Mike McCarthy unveiled “Carpe Omnia” this season. It means “Seize Everything”, and that's exactly what Dallas needs to do.
Dallas had several opportunities slip through their fingers in the first matchup in Philadelphia this season.
The Eagles fumbled the football three times but somehow were able to retain possession each time.
Dallas had the opportunity to make it a three point game halfway through the 4th quarter, but Dak Prescott stepped out of bounds just before converting the 2-point conversion.
The Cowboys could have narrowed the gap with a 4th down touchdown in the 4th quarter, but rookie TE Luke Schoonmaker was tackled just inches short of the goal line.
The final opportunity was a 1st & Goal opportunity from the Eagles' six yard line that was squandered by a penalty followed by a big sack.
Dallas was right on the cusp of victory several times in Philadelphia if only they could reach out and seize the opportunities as they were presented.
Seemingly every toss-up fell Philadelphia's way in Week 9, and Dallas will need to flip that script in Arlington to seize every opportunity laid out in front of them.
Game Prediction
I have been waiting for this rematch since the clock hit all zeroes at the end of the game in Week 9.
The Eagles may have the better record, but they have been wildly fortunate in 50/50 situations.
That luck will run out at AT&T Stadium Sunday night, and Dallas will emerge victorious.
It was a bold prediction of mine earlier this week, but I have convinced myself more and more throughout the week that Dallas will again score 40 points at home.
Sunday night will be a high-scoring affair, but Dallas will make more plays and the defense will get a stop when it counts.
The Cowboys will move to 10-3 on the season and into first place in the NFC East with a 41-34 victory over the Eagles.
