The Dallas Cowboys have a proud tradition of dominant running backs, but only two rookies in franchise history have rushed for over 1,000 yards: Ezekiel Elliott (2016) and Tony Dorsett (1977).
Notably absent from that list is Emmitt Smith, the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, who fell just short with 937 yards as a rookie in 1990.
Now, with the Cowboys selecting Jaydon Blue in the 2025 NFL Draft, there’s inevitable speculation about whether he could become the third rookie to hit the 1,000-yard milestone.
However, the odds are stacked against him to achieve this franchise feat.
Lack of Opportunity
Unlike Elliott or Dorsett, who were immediately installed as the centerpieces of the Cowboys’ offense, Blue enters a far more crowded and nuanced backfield.
The Cowboys appear committed to a backfield-by-committee approach, with veterans like Javonte Williams or Miles Sanders likely handling early-down and short-yardage duties.
Blue, while explosive, is being positioned more as a change-of-pace option, better suited to outside zone runs, third-down plays, and packages that take advantage of his agility and pass-catching skills.
This is, of course, a projection of his usage, but falls in line with how the Cowboys have managed their backfield in recent seasons.
This situational usage caps Blue’s potential volume significantly. The 1,000-yard mark requires not just talent, but touches, and lots of them.
Elliott had 322 carries in his rookie year; Hill had 204. Blue is unlikely to sniff either number unless injuries drastically reshape the depth chart.
Rookie Woes
Usage isn’t the only reason Blue might not get the opportunity to rush for 1,000 yards.
Pass protection, a crucial skill for rookie backs to earn more snaps, is an area where Blue still needs refinement.
Coaches tend to favor veterans in these situations to protect their franchise quarterback.
Unless Blue shows dramatic improvement in training camp, his time on the field will be limited.
Jaydon Blue has the raw talent to be a valuable contributor to the Cowboys.
His speed and vision make him a dangerous weapon in open space, but based on current roster construction, offensive philosophy, and usage trends, it’s highly unlikely he’ll become the third rookie in Cowboys history to rush for 1,000 yards.
His path to success will likely be about impact, not volume.
Plan for the Cowboys to scheme Blue’s touches to create mismatches with linebackers and safeties, utilizing his speed both outside and in between the tackles.
Just don’t expect those touches to equal up to 1,000 yards rushing for the season.
