I'd like to think I have a knack for getting great imaginary value from using Pro Football Focus' mock draft simulator to whip up the best draft for the Dallas Cowboys.
Nobody really cares what my thoughts are when I tweet them out into cyberspace, but let it be an expert and everyone is all ears.
I don't blame them. These guys are experts for a reason. They have connections across the league to information that the everyday fan can only dream of.
ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. dropped his final mock draft of the offseason a whole 16 days before the draft took place, and his Cowboys picks are interesting.
The mock draft is only two rounds deep but, when you think about it, anticipating what 32 NFL teams will do over the course of 64 picks is not an easy task.
Kiper is one of the best in the business, and when he makes an odd connection, (like a consensus 3rd round graded player being selected in the 1st round) we have to pay attention.
He nailed the Tyler Smith selection for the Dallas Cowboys at pick 24 in the 2022 NFL Draft when we all thought he was crazy.
I'm one of the people who threw their beer at the television when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell announced the pick, but it's turned out very well for the Cowboys.
Without further adieu, let's reveal Kiper's picks for the Cowboys and predict the mixed reactions from Cowboys Nation.
Round 1 Pick 24
Selection: OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
Left on deck: C Jackson Powers-Johnson, OT Amarius Mims, EDGE Chop Robinson
Many speculate the Cowboys will be willing to trade back in the 1st round to accumulate more draft picks, but mainly to recoup their 4th round pick lost in the Trey Lance trade.
In this mock, however, Kiper stays put at 24 and selects OT Tyler Guyton from the University of Oklahoma.
Why You Should Love the Pick
Long-time LT Tyron Smith is long gone, signing a free-agent deal with the New York Jets to help protect Aaron Rodgers' blindside.
C Tyler Biadasz also left the team to join the Washington Commanders, leaving only inexperienced players to cover 2/5 of the offensive line.
Due to the losses, the offensive line is a no-brainer pick for the Cowboys very early in the draft.
This is especially true given their track record with first round offensive linemen dating back nearly 15 years, starting with Tyron Smith followed by Travis Frederick and Zack Martin, and ending with Tyler Smith.
Each of those linemen earned at least one All-Pro selection, with several selections for Tyron, Frederick, and Martin.
Why You Should Hate the Pick
The Guyton selection might bring pause because he only has one start at left tackle in his entire collegiate career.
Despite a regression due to injury, Terence Steele is cemented as the right tackle so why would Dallas want another?
A little research will show you that Guyton's time at right tackle was because of the left-handed QB Dillon Gabriel so he has experience protecting his quarterback's blindside.
However, the Cowboys don't have time to wait for Guyton to acclimate to the left side after Tyron's departure and only Matt Waletzko and Asim Richards behind him.
If this is actually the pick, Cowboys Nation shouldn't be surprised. The Cowboys love to draft athleticism and worry about coaching and technical issues later.
Guyton's 6'8″ 322lbs frame and his 34 1/2″ arms make him the prototype left tackle for Dallas to draft.
Round 2 Pick 56
Selection: RB Jonathon Brooks, Texas
Left on deck: C Zach Frazier, DE Adisa Isaac, G Cooper Beebe
Kiper again has the Cowboys keeping their pick at 56 instead of trading back to accumulate more picks.
Cowboys Nation rejoices when Roger Goodell announces the selection: Jonathon Brooks, running back from Texas.
Why You Should Love the Pick
The running back room left much to be desired in 2023 behind the duo of Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle.
Pollard left in free agency to play for his home-state Tennessee Titans, and although Dowdle returned on a one-year deal, he hasn't been consistent enough to garner confidence.
Brooks is the consensus top running back in the draft by a wide margin and would likely be a 1st round pick if not for his unfortunate injury.
The Texas native has drawn comparisons to former Longhorn alumni Jamaal Charles, who played in the NFL for 11 years.
They have similar size and traits, Brooks standing at 6'0″ tall and weighing in at 216 pounds.
DeMarco Murray and Ezekiel Elliott have spoiled fans over the years so they should definitely be excited at the prospect of Brooks taking handoffs from Dak Prescott.
Why You Should Hate the Pick
The main reason you might shut off your television after Goodell announces this pick is because Brooks is coming off of a major injury.
During a game versus TCU in November of 2023, Brooks unfortunately tore his ACL, ending his collegiate career.
The Cowboys have experience with players returning from ACL injuries recently and the results haven't been good.
Michael Gallup never returned to form after his injury and recovery. He's now a free agent.
Terence Steele regressed after his ACL injury, and now we await the return of Trevon Diggs from the same injury.
What if Brooks never becomes the player he was in college? It feels like it could be another 2nd round pick down the drain.
I know Kiper has them addressing left tackle in the 1st round and running back is a need, but so is center and C Zach Frazier from West Virginia was available.
The value of the running back position has shriveled up like a shallow creek in a Texas drought, and Cowboys Nation could be upset after passing on Frazier when a similar back could have been drafted later.
I've come to understand that absolutely nothing besides a Super Bowl win could make the entirety of Cowboys Nation happy.
If Kiper's mock draft is any indication, fans will have mixed feelings about a draft like this.
