I've seen plenty of 2021 mock drafts that have the Dallas Cowboys taking a safety with one of their early picks. But based on this team's history and the moves already made at the position this offseason, it still feels like we're at least a year away from Dallas making a significant draft investment at safety.
Nobody's crazy enough to project the Cowboys taking a safety with the 10th-overall pick on Thursday night. But there have been suggested scenarios where Dallas trades down from that pick and takes TCU's Trevon Moehrig in the back half of the first round, or trades up from the 44th pick to land the draft's top safety.
You'll see even more mocks that have Andre Cisco, Richie Grant, or some other 2nd-round prospect going to Dallas if they stand pat at their original 44th pick.
Prioritizing the safety position hasn't been part of the Cowboys' team-building strategy for a long time. Nothing higher than a 6th-rounder has been used on safety from 2016-2020. And while they did spent a 1st on Byron Jones in 2015, he played cornerback as a rookie.
But outside of the rare J.J. Wilcox here or an Akwasi Owusu-Ansah there, Dallas hasn't generally used premium picks at safety. Not since Roy Williams in 2002 has a 1st or 2nd-round pick gone to the position.
You might convince me that the Cowboys would change that M.O. in 2021 after hiring Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator. He's seen the value of highly-drafted safeties with Earl Thomas and newly-signed Cowboy Keanu Neal in some of his past stops.
However, Dallas has already made several moves this offseason to add bodies and options at the position. Damontae Kazee and Jayron Kearse were added in free agency, with Kazee having started for Quinn the last few years in Atlanta.
The aforementioned Keanu Neal, though officially coming to the Cowboys to play linebacker, is also in the mix. He could still get looks at safety in certain packages and especially if other options don't pan out.
Donovan Wilson is still here, and surprisingly so is Darian Thompson. Plus there's the 4th-round pick from last year, Reggie Robinson, who will reportedly be continuing to work at safety in 2021 after moving there from cornerback as a rookie.
Unless Quinn's arrival or frustration about past results have moved the needle with Dallas' front office, this already feels like max effort based on the team's modern handling of the safety position. It's hard to see them spending a 1st or 2nd-round pick after already making these other moves.
By no means is this to say that Moehrig or even one of the second-tier prospects wouldn't be an upgrade over present talent. But the Cowboys seem to take the term “secondary” quite literally when it comes to safeties; they just don't invest heavily ithere.
The 2021 Cowboys will likely hope that Donovan Wilson continues to grow and solidifies himself a late-round steal. They'll hope Damontae Kazee is an upgrade from Xavier Woods and that improvement throughout the defense helps both to have strong seasons.
If these hopes don't come true, perhaps 2022 is when Dallas finally makes safety a top draft priority again. But unless there's been a significant change in strategy from the 10+ years, don't expect a high pick at safety this week.
