It would be easy to blame it on the Tush Push, the play that all but ensures an NFL coach a first down on fourth-and-1. Perhaps a fair amount of blame can be shifted to the rise of analytics in coaching.
No matter the cause, the fact remains: NFL coaches are gambling far more than they used to.
And its costing them, and their teams, wins far too often. We saw some of this with Mike McCarthy during his time in Dallas.
He gambled way too often and very rarely had it pay off.
We can look at more recent examples of NFL Coaches gone wild just this past weekend alone.
Take The Points
The Dallas Cowboys’ win over the New York Giants on Sunday should never had made it to overtime to begin with.
Dallas can thank Brian Daboll for thinking with the wrong head for not being 0-2 and last in the NFC East.
Up 13-10, the Giants faced a fourth-and-3 from the Cowboys’ 10. Instead of kicking the field goal and taking a 16-10 lead, the Giants went for it.
And failed to get the first down.
You think Daboll wasn’t wanting those three points back near the end of regulation?
The smart play would be to extend the lead whenever you can. Daboll gambled instead.
He and his team lost.
Your Punter Is Your Friend
Later on Sunday, the Chiefs were tied with the Eagles at 10 as they started the second half with the ball.
Facing a fourth-and-1 at their own 36, Andy Reid decided to go for it instead of punting. The run came up short and the Eagles were in instant field goal range.
Philadelphia won the game by three points.
Think that maybe Reid would rather have punted instead, since the Eagles’ offense was not moving the ball that well for most of the game?
Reid gambled instead. He and his team lost.
Grind It Out
The Houston Texans gamble on fourth down made a little more sense at least.
Down 14-10 in the fourth quarter, the Texans moved the ball to the Tampa Bay one-yard line. On second down they tried a run that was stuffed.
They tried a pass on third down that was incomplete.
Instead of kicking a field goal to get to within a point, they went for it on fourth down.
Instead of handing the ball to Chubb to power it in, they tried another pass. It fell incomplete.
Houston lost the game by a single point.
Think they might have wanted that field goal instead?
Ignore The Analytics
The rise of analytics in football may go down as one of the worst eras in football.
Coaches are chasing yards on the field via charts. In many cases, they end up chasing points because analytics tells them to.
How many times do we see a team down 14 points score a touchdown and then go for two on the extra point try.
How many times do we see them fail to get the two points?
Then they have to go for two on the next touchdown to try to tie the game. Down 14 the smart play is to kick the extra points and tie the game.
Coaches need to stop gambling, tell the computer geeks to get lost, and start playing smart football again.
Tell me you know nothing about the topic without telling me.