Will McClay said the Cowboys gave themselves about a 3% chance of Caleb Downs still being on the board when Dallas picked in the 2026 NFL Draft.
I had to listen to that statement a couple of times when I heard it because 3% is crazy low odds.
A lot of people have called Dallas lucky since draft night. I’ve heard it from Cowboys fans, and plenty of people in the media. After listening to Wil McClay explain what went on behind the scenes, I don’t think luck had much to do with it.
What stood out to me in the interview Voch Lombardi and Bryan Broadus had with Will McClay, on their Doin’ Alright podcast, wasn’t the Caleb Downs news, but everything the Cowboys had done before the draft started.
Dallas Didn’t Wait for the Draft to Surprise Them
Will McClay admitted the Cowboys never expected Caleb Downs to make it to them.
“I remember one time looking… there was like a 3% chance.”
Three percent. Most people hear a number that low and figure there’s no reason to spend time on it. As we all know now, Dallas saw things differently.
McClay explained how his scouting department worked through every scenario before the draft weekend arrived.
“One of the things that I’m most proud about is the college scouts digging and doing the work… having the answerers and being prepared ahead of time.”
He would explain how him and the scouting department would go over these scenarios, so they would be ready when their pick rolled around. I like knowing this and hearing about what happens before the card gets turned in.
We rarely see the hundreds of conversations before that moment and when Downs kept sliding, the Cowboys weren’t having any debates for the first time. They’d already settled how it would work out weeks earlier.
Does luck play a part? Absolutely, but preparation is much better than luck.
Will McClay Isn’t Choosing Film Over Analytics
Has football become scouts versus computers? Will McClay made it pretty clear that isn’t how Dallas operates.
“I believe my eyes. My computer’s here too. It’s trained.”
I like that answer because it shows that the Cowboys staff isn’t afraid of technology.
They watch the tape and trust their experience. Then they let the numbers challenge their thinking before another team does.
One of my favorite quotes from Will McClay builds off of the quote above:
“So, tell me where my blind spots are because we do have them. Point out the inconsistences, like we were talking about the draft and trends and those things. I think those things are important to be aware of and to let the decision-makers be aware of that and put that into their thought process when they make a decision.”
I don’t see that as someone who thinks he has football figured out. I think it’s someone trying to keep from making the same mistake twice.
I can get behind that.
McClay Doesn’t Ignore the Draft Misses
Will McClay never acted like Dallas has nailed every draft pick.
When the conversation shifted to past draft misses, he explained what happens inside the building after those players don’t work out.
“You go back and you look at those reasons and you try not to make those mistakes again.”
That’s not an answer that will make headlines, but I think it does say plenty about why Dallas has stayed one of the better drafting teams over the last decade.
I don’t feel like good organizations spend time defending bad picks. They figure out why they missed on those picks and get back to work.
McClay also reminded everybody that scouting isn’t only about forty times or highlight reels.
“When you miss, you go back and you look at why. It’s the people. That’s the number one thing because you’re taking people from one thing and from a situation that they’re familiar with, putting them in a different one, you’re putting money in their pocket. All those different things—how are they going to react? So it’s those things.
That’s the part fans, including me, sometimes miss. Players aren’t robots.
A guy can check every box on paper and still fail because the fit isn’t right, or his development doesn’t happen.
Caleb Downs was the Reward for Doing The Homework
The more I listened to McClay, the less I cared about the idea that Caleb Downs unexpectedly fell.
I feel like the bigger story is Dallas already knew what they wanted to do if that unlikely moment happened.
I love that McClay also said analytics has pushed him to find ways to get “closer to right.”
He didn’t claim Dallas has cracked some cheat code or solved the draft using analytics. Will McClay has just found another tool that helps challenge him and the scouts in what they already believe.
I don’t think the Cowboys stole Caleb Downs because every other team suddenly forgot how to draft, although I think the Giants did.
I think they stole Caleb Downs because they were ready for something most teams probably thought would never happen.
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