We are less than three weeks away from the 2024 NFL Draft and fans are brimming with anticipation at the next big offseason milestone.
The Chicago Bears are officially on the clock and if you know anything about football, it's clear that it's QB Caleb Williams or bust.
After the first pick in the draft, it's a mystery what will happen within the top five or top ten, and even more of a mystery what will happen in the rest of the first round.
How many trades will we see? How many quarterbacks will be drafted?
Another big question draft pundits like to answer is whether a team plans to stand pat at their pick, move up, or trade back in the first round.
The truth is no one can truly know what happens inside the walls of an NFL organization unless they are part of the team.
Countless times we have seen trusted NFL analysts swear they have a lead on what a team is going to do, only to see the team do the complete opposite.
Today I want to speculate a little on the Dallas Cowboys and their plans for the first round.
Many believe they are destined to trade back in the first round in an attempt to recoup the fourth-round pick they sent to San Francisco in exchange for QB Trey Lance.
I think this may be a form of misdirection on the Cowboys' part, and they actually plan to surprise everyone by trading up in the first round to select their left tackle of the future.
I also believe they have a specific player in mind.
But They Already Have Their LT of the Future
We all know the Cowboys love to draft offensive linemen with the flexibility to play multiple positions across the offensive line.
That was no different than when they drafted Tyler Smith with the 24th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Smith played left tackle while at Tulsa but the Cowboys still had veteran Tyron Smith available to play so the plan was for Tyler to start his career at left guard.
An injury to Tyron before the 2022 season forced Tyler to start the season at left tackle instead.
He was selected to the 2022 All-Rookie team and followed that up with an All-Pro season at left guard.
Yes, Tyler can move to left tackle, but why would you want to move an All-Pro player from his spot unless you have another All-Pro behind him to plug in?
I think the Cowboys don't want to move him unless it's absolutely necessary, meaning they will only move him if they aren't able to lock up a left tackle in the first round.
With so many other teams also vying for offensive line help, the Cowboys may have to trade up into the mid to late teens to secure the player they want.
The Scenario
I utilized Pro Football Focus for the mock draft simulator with all categories (rankings, positional value, need, and randomness) set to median levels.
Also utilized was the trade value draft chart that can be found on OverTheCap.com.
After studying the draft order, I concluded that a sweet spot to begin trade talks would be at pick 17 with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I picked this spot because, after the Jaguars, there is a run of four consecutive picks where the teams are all threats to take an offensive tackle.
The Bengals, Rams, Steelers, and Dolphins all have needs across the offensive line, specifically at tackle.
I wasn't able to come to an agreement with the Jaguars for pick 17, and I soon found out it was because they were also targeting tackle.
They drafted the inexperienced Amarius Mims from Georgia, and the Bengals were on the clock.
Again, I was unable to come to terms with the Bengals and was forced to let them select pick 18, where they also chose a tackle, JC Latham from Alabama.
At that point, I was sweating because the run on tackles officially started.
Up next were the Los Angeles Rams at pick 19, and this time I was able to strike a deal to exchange picks.
In exchange for pick 19, I sent pick 24, pick 174 (5th), and a 2025 6th-round pick to Los Angeles for the right to draft the player I believe the Cowboys have their eyes on.
Olumuyiwa Fashanu
Olumuyiwa Fashanu is a player that fits right in the mold of what the Cowboys look for in their left tackle.
Fashanu, who goes by “Olu” for short, has some technical flags on his scouting report that fall right in line with what the Cowboys have coached up with both Tyron Smith and Tyler Smith in the past.
If there's anything you can hang your hat on, is that Dallas is confident in its scouting and coaching staff to develop players, and Olu wouldn't be any different.
Olu comes in at 6'6″ tall and tipping the scales at 314 lbs.
By comparison, Tyron and Tyler measured in at 6'5″ 320lbs, and 6'6″ 332lbs, respectively.
The Cowboys won't have any problem putting Olu on a weight training program to get his weight above 320 pounds, and his strength will also improve as a result.
Another comparison is age. The Cowboys like to draft their left tackles young.
I assume it's some sort of competitive strategy to squeeze in two contracts before the player turns 30 years old, but they sure do like their tackles younger than most.
Tyron was 20 years old at the time he was drafted and Tyler had just turned 21 years old when he was drafted.
Olu is not quite as young, but he just turned 22 years old this past December on the same day my grandfather turned 93 years old.
Dallas' history of the left tackle position also needs to be taken into consideration here.
Barring players filling in for injuries or a one-off year, the Cowboys have shown us they like to draft their left tackles for the long haul.
Mark Tuinei was the left tackle from 1989-1997. Flozell Adams followed him from 1999-2009. Tyron Smith was next in line from 2011-2023.
Tyler Smith could very well be that player for the next decade, but as I stated above, he's an All-Pro left guard and the Cowboys could decide to leave him there.
But What About More Draft Picks?
The good news about this theory and my ensuing mock draft to prove it is that I was still able to trade back to accumulate more picks.
It just didn't happen in the first round, but the second round was the sweet spot to move back from pick 56 and acquire the coveted 4th round pick plus an additional 4th in 2025.
The Chiefs were happy to oblige, packaging pick 64 to exchange with Dallas to select S Javon Bullard with the 56th pick.
I was then able to draft the 1-tech defensive tackle the Cowboys are sorely lacking and the 4th round pick (131) acquired was used on another position of need, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
So as you can see, the Cowboys shouldn't feel afraid to jump up a few spots to draft their next left tackle, and my hunch says that may be on their minds.
I would be ecstatic if the draft fell this way for the Cowboys, and you should feel that way as well.
