The 2024 NFL Draft has begun. Here is a list of my final pick predictions for picks 1-16 tonight.
This list will be updated with the actual pick as it is made and a brief post-pick comment. So keep checking back throughout the night.
A separate post will cover picks 17-32.
Williams Tops The List
1. Chicago Bears
Predicted Pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The Bears sent Justin Fields packing over the off-season. Unless they've been pulling a deep fake on everyone, Williams is the expected pick. But his behavior after USC was eliminated from contention in the college football playoffs last year has to be of concern.
Actual Pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
No big surprise here. The Bears telegraphed their target at No. 1 months ago.
Can he break the cycle of disappointing NFL careers from USC quarterbacks? Time will tell.
Predicted Pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The Commanders are rebuilding on both sides of the ball. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner seems a lock to go with the second pick here.
But this is the Commanders so who knows?
Actual Pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Okay, all you guys that had Drake Maye going here in your mock drafts? Ha-ha!!!
The bad news is that the Cowboys will be facing him twice a year every year for awhile.
3. New England Patriots
Predicted Pick: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
This might be the first trade on draft day, especially if Washington tabs Daniels. The Patriots have been shopping around this pick.
But if they can't swing a deal, they will “settle” for Maye. He'll definitely be an upgrade over Mac Jones.
Actual Pick: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Smart move here. New England passed on the trade offers and dealt with their own quarterback issues.
4. Arizona Cardinals
Predicted Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
If Kyler Murray is going to take his next step, he needs a new top target to throw to. If the first three picks go quarterback, Harrison Jr. is there for the taking.
Unless the Cardinals get a huge trade offer, they should be the team that takes him.
Actual Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Another smart move, declining any trade offers to land the best receiver in this class. Murray should be partying for the rest of the week.
A New Sheriff In Atlanta
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Predicted Pick: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Yes, Justin Herbert is the Chargers starting quarterback. But…
Jim Harbaugh is the new head coach in Los Angeles and McCarthy just helped him win a National Title. Maybe Harbaugh drafts his boy and serves notice on Hebert to get it done in the postseason or else.
Actual Pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Well, my run was nice while it lasted. Have I mentioned how much I hate Jim Harbaugh?
But Alt makes sense as Harbaugh wants to beef up his team and pound the opposition into submission.
Predicted Pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Giants need to give Daniel Jones some help. Nabers fits the bill and is the best option remaining after Harrison.
Actual Pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Cowboys get to face another former Tiger twice a year now. Fortunately it won't be the same games.
But Nabers is going to be a headache for the Cowboys and the rest of the league for several years.
7. Tennessee Titans
Predicted Pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Titans seem to have found their franchise quarterback. Now they need to get his blind side covered for a long time to come.
Actual Pick: J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama
I was guaranteed to be five of first seven when Alt went to the Chargers. The Titans missed out on Alt, but pivoted, and landed a solid player anyway.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Predicted Pick: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The Falcons have taken care of the offensive side of the ball. Now they need to focus on the defense. Maybe then they'll quit choking big leads in the second half?
Actual Pick: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Not going to lie. I'm having CPR applied to my person as I type this. I never considered this as a possibility for the Falcons.
Kirk Cousins is pulling his hair out in clumps right now.
Bears Get Bullish On Offense
9. Chicago Bears
Predicted Pick: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Like the Falcons, the Bears have addressed their offensive needs. Now they needs to tune up the other side. Latu will be a welcomed addition to Chicago's pass rush.
Actual Pick: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Bears have suddenly made themselves into a dangerous passing team if their two picks tonight pay off.
10. Minnesota Vikings (in trade with the New York Jets)
Predicted Pick: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The Jets are probably looking at one last year with Aaron Rodgers. And Aaron loves him some tight ends.
Bowers would be a welcome target for Rodgers to throw to in what is likely his grand finale in the NFL.
Actual Pick: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
So the trade obviously blew up my predicted pick. The Jets managed to bluff the Vikings into thinking New York would take McCarthy.
Minnesota got its quarterback and the Jets got some additional picks. Win-win.
11. New York Jets (in trade with the Minnesota Vikings)
Predicted Pick: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Assuming the Vikings don't trade up – or that McCarthy doesn't slide down to them here, it wouldn't hurt for them to add a receiver for Sam Darnold to throw to.
The other option would be to draft Bo Nix instead. But would they? If not…
Actual Pick: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Was expecting a new toy for Rodgers. Looks like the Jets decided to make it a big shiny toy to protect him with.
12. Denver Broncos
Predicted Pick: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Despite a recent trade with the Jets to land Zach Wilson the Broncos need a quarterback – especially if Wilson's confidence is shot after the way the Jets treated him.
Sean Payton can work wonders with a quarterback – even two at a time if he has the chance.
Actual Pick: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
The Broncos almost had to pick Nix, especially with the surprise pick of Penix earlier in the round.
The Raiders Shore Up The Offense
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Predicted Pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The Raiders may trade up and try to nab a quarterback. If they do miss the boat they still have Gardner Minshew to get them to 2025.
And adding a strong offensive tackle can only make Minshew's life easier.
Actual Pick: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Well, they missed out on a quarterback. So the Raiders decided to give Minshew a target to throw to instead.
14. New Orleans Saints
Predicted Pick: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
The Saints need to beef up their offensive line. Suamataia has that and more. He just might be the steal of the first round if New Orleans pulls the trigger here.
Actual Pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
I got the position right, just off by a few hundred miles to the west. The Saints needed a offensive tackle and got one.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Predicted Pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Colts are feeling the need for speed in the secondary. A pick on offense is not impossible, but a cornerback instead is the better pick here.
Actual Pick: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Colts end the offensive run, making the UCLA defensive end the first defensive player taken in this year's draft.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Predicted Pick: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
The Seahawks need to give their new head coach some shiny new toys on the defensive side of the ball. Mike Macdonald is a defense guy and will want to improve the pass rush.
Verse fits that bill nicely.
Actual Pick: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Settle addressed the defensive line, just the interior instead of the edge. Great pick by the Seahawks.
