Cowboys Remaining 26' Schedule: I'm Not Buying the Easy Road

I was curious if the Cowboys had made it through the hardest part of their schedule. At 2–4, they could use a break.

So, I checked the opponents left, built my own strength-of-schedule (SOS) comparison, and checked how Dak Prescott has played against winning and losing teams.

The results may not be surprising to you, but my score predictions may cause you to lose your mind.

Dallas Cowboys 2026 schedule with a Cowboys silver helmet.

My Cowboys Strength-of-Schedule Breakdown

My calculations use standings after the October 25 afternoon games, before Seattle/Kansas City and Dallas/Philadelphia. Repeat opponents count once per scheduled matchup.

SOS average margin shows how opponents have performed on the scoreboard. I calculated each opponent’s average points scored, minus points allowed. I didn’t use games against Dallas, then averaged those numbers across each stretch of games.

Negative means those opponents have been outscored, while positive means they have outscored their opponents. The -6.10 shows the next three teams’ performance. It doesn’t predict Dallas winning by six.

The full remaining schedule looks almost identical to the first six games. The next three are where I see an opening.

Philadelphia, Arizona, and Indianapolis are a combined 6-14. Sweep them, and Dallas reaches 5-4 before San Francisco. Lose two, and we are at 3-6.

I’m picking the sweep. With the players Dallas has on offense and Schottenheimer getting to focus on the offense again and not as worried about the defense with Mike Pettine onboard. We will see a run.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott walking off the field being followed by media

What I Expect from Dak Prescott

I grouped the first six opponents by their records at that same October 25th cutoff.

The Giants, Ravens, and Packers are the winning group. Washington, Houston, and Tampa Bay are the losing group.

Against losing teams, Dak is good, really good. He’s completed more passes, gained more per throw, and has thrown more touchdowns. The additional eight points against these teams is nice too.

Three games is a small sample size, but Dak clearly doesn’t like beating good teams. And what’s crazy is you would expect having CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens would give the Cowboys the advantage.

We shouldn’t be watching Dallas win on this schedule with last-minute drives against struggling teams.

Jerry Jones has specific reasons for choosing Brian Schottenheimer

Brian Schottenheimer Needs to Make this Stretch Count

I’m putting a lot of this on Schottenheimer, too. If I expect Dak to take advantage of some of these matchups, he will need a head coach that will call a good offensive game and make good adjustments for once.

Make the other team adjust to our play calls. Get Lamb, Pickens, and Javonte Williams involved early. The key to winning these next few games will be Williams. Getting him involved more opens up everything for Lamb and Pickens.

Let’s see an offense finish drives and build a lead it can keep. If all the wins need Dak to rescue the team, I’m going to feel terrible coming into the 49ers game because it will get ugly quick.

Brian Schottenheimer has an opportunity with the remaining schedule. I want him to change the narrative of this team.

My Predictions for the Cowboys Remaining Games

Nine Wins Will Need a Lot to Go Right

My predictions will get Dallas to 7-5 after Thanksgiving. I’d feel a whole lot better about the season if this came true, but the next three games on the schedule are a gauntlet.

After the first Philadelphia game, four of the next five are at home. Then comes the West Coast road trip featuring Seattle, and the LA Rams, followed back to Dallas to take on the Jaguars.

I have Dallas losing all three of those last games. Winning five of six before that stretch will be the difference between winning the division or an early trip to Cancun. I just don’t think the Cowboys will figure out how to beat winning teams.

A few blowouts can skew these numbers a bit, but the injuries are what will be the end all be all for all these matchups. Those injuries will definitely tell us what kind of defense we could have over the stretch run.

I’m going to say the Cowboys go 9-8, and that includes beating the Eagles twice. I really hope we beat them twice. I know that’s pretty optimistic for a 2-4 team, but if Dallas drops one of these next three, I would have a hard time seeing us get above .500.