There is a photo being passed around by Dak Prescott’s more ardent defenders as proof that Prescott is an “Elite” NFL quarterback.
Let’s take a look at it shall we?:
On the face of it the photo does seem to make a compelling argument in the Dak Pack’s favor.
The numbers do appear to be quite even. But there’s an interesting truism when it comes to statistics.
“You can make the data say whatever you want it to.”
So yes, the data presented in this photo is saying exactly what the originators of it want it to say. But is the data presenting an accurate representation?
Is Dak Prescott as elite quarterback equal to Patrick Mahomes?
Let’s take a deeper dive and see.
By The Numbers
Prescott is 73-41 (.640) overall as a starting quarterback – in the regular season.
He is 27-29 (.482) against teams with a winning record. He is 46-12 (.793) against teams with a losing record.
By comparison, Mahomes is 74-22 (.771) overall, with a 27-13 (.675) against teams with a winning record. Making him 47-9 (.839) against teams .500 or worse.
Prescott has been a full-time starter since the first game of the 2016 season.
Mahomes’ first start came in the final game of the 2017 season, giving Prescott a 31-game head start.
Yet, Mahomes has one more regular season win than Prescott in 18 fewer starts. But there is only one won-loss record that actually matters.
One Rises, The Other Wilts
Mahomes is 15-3 in postseason play as a starter. He has three Super Bowl rings and four conference championships to his name.
As the Chiefs’ full-time starter since 2018, he has played in six straight conference championship games.
Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs with 41 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Prescott has been the Cowboys’ starter for two more full seasons than Mahomes. He is 2-5 with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions in the playoffs.
Prescott has never won a divisional round game, much less played in a conference title game or Super Bowl.
The defenders will argue that the quarterback isn’t the only player on the field in the playoffs. That argument is curiously absent when Prescott’s regular season numbers are discussed.
But the fact is that Mahomes’ defense hasn’t exactly been stellar over the years either.
Yet, he has overcome that on a consistent basis and led his team to victory.
Prescott hasn’t. In his two playoff losses to the 49ers the defense gave him every chance to win and he failed.
Against the Packers last year, he put his team in a 27-0 hole before halftime with two crucial interceptions.
Despite the last second score to make it 27-7, the Cowboys walked off the field a beaten team at halftime. Everyone could see it in the team’s body language.
That is why Jimmy Johnson made his impassioned speech in the studio during halftime.
He saw it too. Had he been in the locker room he might have inspired the team to rally.
But I doubt even that would have turned the team, and the game, around.
This defense knows they have to play a perfect game in the playoffs to win. No defense can do that.
And that’s the problem with Prescott.
The Solution
Yes, Prescott is a great regular season quarterback, but he’s not on the same level as Mahomes. He’s certainly not an elite quarterback as his playoff record shows.
So, with a more accurate sense of the numbers, what should the Cowboys do with their current starting quarterback and his contract?
The answer is simple. And I’m beginning to think that the front office sees what I see.
Prescott – like Tony Romo before him – will win in the regular season. He’ll get you to the playoffs and win you a wild card game at best.
But making a deep run in the postseason was something Romo – who was 2-4 in the playoffs – and Prescott simply cannot do.
For that reason, the Cowboys should not extend him prior to the 2024 season. Make him play his final year.
Make him prove – with all the chips pushed into the center of the table – that he can get it done when it matters most.
Make him show everyone that his name and Mahomes’ belong in the same sentence when discussing “elite” quarterbacks.
If he finally gets Dallas back to the Super Bowl – win or lose – pay the man $70 million a year.
If he doesn’t? Let him become a SEP.
Somebody. Else’s. Problem.