It’s game day in Atlanta, and the Dallas Cowboys (3-4) aim to reach the .500 mark on the season by going against the home team Atlanta Falcons (5-3).
Falcons’ QB Kirk Cousins is a familiar face for the Cowboys to line up against. Cousins spent the first years of his career as the quarterback for the Washington Commanders, formerly known as the Redskins.
There is even more familiarity now with DC Mike Zimmer. The two spent time together in Minnesota when Zimmer was still the head coach and Cousins was his starting quarterback.
Today’s topic is key matchups, and looking over everything, the Cowboys’ defense doesn’t have enough reinforcements to cover the Falcons’ weapons.
CeeDee Lamb vs Dee Alford
After a slow start to the season, Cowboys’ WR CeeDee Lamb finally recorded his first 100-yard game of the year last week against the San Francisco 49ers. Lamb caught 13 of his 17 targets for 146 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.
The performance was bittersweet. Dallas lost, but we finally saw the connection from QB Dak Prescott to Lamb that was so prevalent last season. Hopefully, it means good things moving forward, so the Cowboys’ offense can get back to its former glory.
This week, the Cowboys would be wise to feature Lamb in the slot versus the Falcons’ Nickel cornerback, Dee Alford. He primarily operates in the slot, and has not done a great job there this season.
Alford has been targeted 42 times, and has allowed 32 completions for 258 yards and three touchdowns. His 76.2% completion rate and 115.0 QB rating when targeted are some of the worst numbers in the NFL.
Atlanta has AJ Terrell and Mike Hughes manning the outside, and they have each found better results in pass defense this season than Alford. Naturally, the Cowboys should attack the weakest member of the secondary. Lamb could be in for a big day.
DeMarvion Overshown vs Bijan Robinson
Flipping to the other side of the ball for the final two key matchups, we start with LB DeMarvion Overshown keying on Falcons’ RB Bijan Robinson.
You all remember Bijan Robinson, the running back who was nearly guaranteed would be drafted by the Cowboys at some point in the 2023 NFL Draft. Those dreams were busted when the Falcons didn’t even let him get out of the top 10.
Robinson has been everything the Falcons hoped he’d be, and is even better in his sophomore campaign in the NFL. Bijan is a threat in both the run game and the pass game, and is averaging 5.4 yards per touch with five touchdowns to his name.
Bijan is a weapon out of the backfield, and the Cowboys will need to counter with a weapon of their own. That weapon’s name is DeMarvion Overshown, and Zimmer can do his defense a big favor by having him key on Bijan today.
Overshown is the fastest linebacker the Cowboys have on the roster, and he will need every bit of that speed out on the field covering the high-flying Falcons offense. Going over the matchups, I’ve determined that the Cowboys just don’t have enough reinforcements to defend the Falcons’ offense.
Mystery Man vs Kyle Pitts
Speaking of offensive weapons, TE Kyle Pitts is another freak athlete at Kirk Cousins’ disposal. Pitts has not been the revelation at tight end that many thought he would be by now, but he seems to be inching closer to elite tight end status.
Maybe Pitts just needed a quarterback of Cousins’ caliber to arrive and throw him the football. This season, he has 29 receptions on 42 targets (69% catch rate) for 419 yards and three touchdowns.
The question for the Dallas Cowboys is who is going to cover him? Already thin at cornerback, Trevon Diggs cannot be moved away from wide receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney.
DaRon Bland is out for another game, and Caelen Carson might also be. Practice squad fill-in Amanu Oruwariye suffered a back injury last week that has him on injured reserve.
Dallas’ secondary is hurting in a bad way, and there aren’t enough reinforcements for the weapons Atlanta will put on the field. CB Josh Butler was called up from the practice squad, but his help will be needed on the boundary.
That leaves the safeties, and their play this season doesn’t give me any confidence that they can handle Pitts in the open field. Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson have repeatedly been caught out of place this season. They’ve given up countless big plays.
My hope for today is that Juanyeh Thomas gets a shot, and that Zimmer puts him to cover Kyle Pitts. Either he or Israel Mukuamu would be good options for the Cowboys.
Prediction
Earlier this week I mentioned that the Cowboys likely won’t be able to slow the Falcons’ offense, but I also countered with the fact that the Falcons don’t exactly have the best defense either.
This could be a get-right game for the Cowboys’ offense, and possibly turn the game into a shoot out. I still think that is what is going to happen.
The Dallas defense will give up big plays, but so with the Falcons defense, and the Cowboys’ defense will pressure Cousins into a big mistake in the 4th quarter when it matters most.
Dallas 37
Atlanta 34