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Dallas Cowboys 2019 Roster Projection: Preseason Week 3

Jess Haynie

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Cowboys Need More From Randy Gregory and Taco Charlton 1

Another preseason game has come and gone, and we're gathering further information to help put together the Dallas Cowboys 53-man roster for 2019. How did the events of the last week help to shape our last projection?

Let's dive right in. You can see last week's projection here.

Quarterback (2)

Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush

Changes: Removed Mike White

With Rush having clearly won the backup job already, the question now becomes if White will make the roster at all. As I wrote about yesterday, Dallas may be ready to go back to their past strategy of keeping only two quarterbacks and freeing up a roster spot for another position.

It would be one thing if White was getting outplayed by Rush and still showing some signs of future potential. But the second-year QB hasn't looked good at all, and Dallas has little reason now to worry about losing him if White is placed on the practice squad.

With so many other needs throughout the team, as we'll get into throughout this article, that roster spot just appears to have better uses now than hanging on to Mike White. Maybe his play in the next few weeks will change that, but right now it's not promising.

Film Review: Tony Pollard Solid in Preseason Debut vs 49ers 4

Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard

Running Back (4)

Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Alfred Morris,
Jamize Olawale (FB)

Changes: None

Assuming his holdout ends before September 8th, Elliott will be the starting running back. Also just as certain now is that Pollard will be an exciting backup and role-player in the offense, and that Olawale is returning at fullback.

The only variable now is at that third and final RB spot; who emerges from the group of Alfred Morris, Darius Jackson, Jordan Chunn, and Mike Weber?

I went into more detail about this yesterday, but I will summarize that it's probably going to come down to special teams. If any of these guys can earn their way onto the coverage units, that will likely secure them a spot on the 53.

That said, I'm deferring to the veteran Morris for now. With none of his younger competition standing out, Alfred's experience and proven ability may be enough. The coaches have already praised what a great fit he is in the system.

Receiver (6)

Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb,
Noah Brown, Tavon Austin, Cedrick Wilson

Changes: None

I had a very hard time leaving Devin Smith off the roster. While he has shined lately, he's also 27 and doesn't offer the same future value as Wilson. I think it will take more for Devin to force his way in.

I know that Noah Brown hasn't played in a preseason game yet but his value as a blocker can't be underestimated. He allows the team to keep just three tight ends and has his own upside as a receiver. I don't think the Cowboys are going to dump him for a shiny new toy given what he's already proven in real games.

If the Cowboys want to hang on to more of these young guys then I still think Tavon Austin's job isn't secure. If some combination of Tony Pollard, Jourdan Lewis, and Cedrick Wilson can handle the kick/punt return duties then Austin is just another backup receiver. He has skill, but maybe not enough value to lose a younger prospect.

Jason Witten

Dallas Cowboys TE Jason Witten

Tight End (3)

Jason Witten, Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz

Changes: None

It was fun to see Witten back on the field Saturday night. And he back to his usual business, catching a 3rd-down pass to move the chains and set up the team's touchdown on the opening drive.

There really isn't much to say about the TE position. This this trio is locked in and it doesn't seem that Marcus Lucas or Codey McElroy have much chance of making the team based on the numbers.

The best chance that they have is if Dallas does part with Noah Brown at WR, which could mean needing one more TE for blocking purposes.

Offensive Tackle (3)

Tyron Smith, La'el Collins, Cam Fleming

Changes: None

Another easy position to project; the only question is if Tyron Smith's back issues prompt the team to keep an extra tackle. But with Guard Connor Williams also able to play tackle, Dallas may go ahead and lean on that versatility.

Guard/Center (5)

Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Connor Williams,
Joe Looney, Connor McGovern

Changes: None

Again, versatility is the key. It allows Dallas to only keep just eight offensive linemen and free up needed spots at WR and on defense.

Xavier Su'a-Filo is the toughest guy to lose, and perhaps he sticks around if there any health issues that creep up between now and final cuts. We also haven't seen much of Connor McGovern's work yet to know if he can really contribute this year or needs this rookie season for development.


Jackson, Jelks are Sleepers to Keep an eye on

Dallas Cowboys DE Joe Jackson

Defensive End (7)

DeMarcus Lawrence, Tyrone Crawford, Taco Charlton,
Dorance Armstrong, Kerry Hyder, Joe Jackson, Jalen Jelks

Changes: Added Jelks

This going to be an awful year to cut defensive linemen; the talent is deep and there just aren't enough spots to go around.

As I've said all offseason, it's so hard to know what the team will do with Crawford. He's got the worst contract but the team can suffer his cap hit this year, then release him in 2020 for great savings and less dead money. But he's still got starting talent and the ability to play all over the line; tough guy to lose.

I have the Cowboys going long here with seven DEs because, while technically listed here, Crawford, Taco, and Hyder all have the size to play inside as well. I also think Dallas will use the two weeks of Robert Quinn's suspension to evaluate these guys further and decide who to cut when he returns.

While just a 7th-round pick, Jalen Jelks has the physical traits you'd love to develop. I think Dallas may also consider using him as a strong-side linebacker, which we'll get to in a minute. However, he is probably the guy who gets cut once Quinn comes back in Week 3.

Defensive Tackle (4)

Maliek Collins, Antwaun Woods, Trysten Hill,
Christian Covington

Changes: None

As good as prospects like Daniel Ross, Daniel Wise, and Ricky Walker have looked at times, it's just a  bad year for talented bubble guys on the Dallas defensive line. At least one of them will be on the practice squad.

As was already mentioned, Dallas can afford to keep just these four pure tackles because they have the versatility of players like Crawford and Hyder at DE.

Linebacker (6)

Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, Sean Lee
Joe Thomas, Justin March-Lillard, Justin Phillips

Changes: Added Phillips, Removed Chris Covington

Justin Phillips has played his way onto the roster with two great preseason games. He's on the small size but has a big presence; any NFL team can work with that.

Sean Lee may be an injury risk at SAM and not have much depth behind him for that job, but Dallas could easily use Jaylon Smith on that side if needed and then bring in Joe Thomas as the MIKE or WILL. This is also where I think Jalen Jelks could find some additional value if he can convert to a strong-side LB.

Cowboys Wishlist: Snap Julio Jones' Hot Streak

Dallas Cowboys CB Byron Jones

Cornerback (6)

Byron Jones, Chidobe Awuzie, Anthony Brown,
Jourdan Lewis, C.J. Goodwin, Michael Jackson (R)

Changes: Added Goodwin

With talk that Byron Jones may not be ready for the regular season opener, I think Dallas definitely goes long here to cover their bases for Week One.

As much as I like Donovan Olumba as a cornerback, veteran C.J. Goodwin is a special teams ace and should make the team on that basis. The tough decision will come down to keeping 5th-round rookie Michael Jackson over Olumba; trusting your scouting process over the immediate production.

For now I'm still going with the rookie, thinking that Dallas will want to give him at least one year to work on his body and make the difficult transition to the NFL. But we've seen 5th-round picks get cut around here before; Jackson still has to earn his spot.

Safety (4)

Xavier Woods, Jeff Heath, Darian Thompson,
Donovan Wilson

Changes: Removed George Iloka

I will probably keep changing the safety picks around through the end of preseason. All we can really say for sure right now is that Xavier Woods is really good; the rest is up in the air.

Jeff Heath is still the other starter until someone shows they can take it from him, and so far nobody has. In fact, George Iloka has done so little that now I don't think he makes the roster.

Dallas could re-sign Iloka after Week One to avoid his having a guaranteed salary as a veteran, but either way I don't think he's here after final cuts.

Special Teams (3)

Brett Maher, Chris Jones, L.P. Ladouceur

Changes: None

The great kicker conundrum continues. Maher remains shaky and there's no sign yet that Dallas is going to consider another option. We just have to keep putting his name here until we have a reason not to.

Kasey Redfern has been pushing Chris Jones at punter, but Dallas may not want to push the $1 million in dead money to the 2020 cap by cutting their veteran. Unless Redfern is significantly superior, I think the Cowboys may just stick with Jones for one more season.


Cowboys fan since 1992, blogger since 2011. Bringing you the objectivity of an outside perspective with the passion of a die-hard fan. I love to talk to my readers, so please comment on any article and I'll be sure to respond!

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Game Notes

Could OC Kellen Moore Be More “Vanilla” Against Dolphins This Week?

Kevin Brady

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Kellen Moore, Jason Garrett, Dak Prescott

The Cowboys are sort of in a no-win situation this Sunday.

If they come out and dominate the openly tanking Miami Dolphins, they'll have done exactly what they should do. But, if they lose to this putrid roster or lose one of their key players to injury, then this week three game would be considered a disaster.

So how should the Cowboys approach the Miami Dolphins?

Something tells me that new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore may look more "basic" than usual this week. Heralded for his creativity over the first two games, Moore may not want to show too much against the lowly Dolphins. Especially if the Cowboys can simply impose their will, a la the 2016 offensive gameplan.

Running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard should expect a lot of inside and outside zone opportunities this week, with each having a chance to have their best individual performances of the season. Tight end Blake Jarwin and wide receiver Devin Smith could see a lot of opportunities through the air as well, as the Cowboys may want to avoid putting Amari Cooper in situations which could cause injury.


Kellen Moore may want to come out firing with Dak Prescott and this dynamic passing game at first to get a quick lead, and then look to shorten the game as much as possible with his running game.

Honestly, as much as Cowboys Nation may not like it, I wouldn't be shocked if Miami covered this lofty 23 point spread. Dallas could look to get up a couple touchdowns, then proceed to sit on the ball and just look to get out of the stadium alive. Especially considering that the schedule gets much more difficult in the weeks following this Miami game.

With key NFC matchups against the New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, and Philadelphia Eagles looming large, health is the most important factor this week against the Dolphins.

Well, health and winning, of course.


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11-Personnel Success Key to Dallas Cowboys Offensive Explosion

John Williams

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Brees Out for 6 Weeks, How Much Will Cowboys Win Streak Last?

When Kellen Moore took over as the offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys a lot of expectations came that he would improve the offense. Though a lot of the parts coming into 2019 were the same as 2018, the anticipation of improvement was more about what Kellen Moore's mind would bring to the table.

From Moore's first interview with the press about his offensive philosophy to the preseason to the Cowboys victories in their first two regular-season games, the Dallas Cowboys look like a much different team. One area where the Dallas Cowboys are finding much more success in 2019 compared to last year, is in their success using 11-personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end, and 3 wide receivers).

As the NFL has evolved and began adopting more spread concepts into the offensive gameplans, 11-personnel has become the predominant formation in the league. 19 of the NFL's 32 teams use 11-personnel more than 60% of the time and 14 of those teams run it at least 70% of the time. The Dallas Cowboys are one of those as they deploy 11-personnel at a rate fo 73%.

The reason 11-personnel has become so popular is that it doesn't give away run-pass tendencies quite like two or three tight end formations typically signify a run or like a four or five wide receiver set can signify a pass. With the rate tight ends and running backs are catching the football in the modern NFL, this formation allows teams to hide their intentions before the snap. Many teams, the Dallas Cowboys included may start out with the tight end lined up next to the tackle and the running back in the backfield and then motion those players out into an empty backfield set with a spread look. This formation allows the Dallas Cowboys and other teams to give defenses multiple looks out without having to change the personnel grouping.

The Dallas Cowboys offense led by Kellen Moore calling the plays and Dak Prescott at quarterback has taken a significant step forward as an offense and a lot of that is because they've increased their use of 11-personnel and their efficiency when deploying it.

In looking at some of the data from last year to this year, we're going to be looking at Warren Sharp's Football Stats and success rates. Sharp Football Stats defines a successful play as one that, "gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down." So even if a run on 3rd and 10 goes for nine yards, it's deemed an unsuccessful play because it was unable to pick up the first down yardage. If a 2nd and 10 play picks up six yards, it is considered a successful play. If on 3rd and 1, the offense gets one yard and picks up the first down, the play is deemed successful.

In 2018 under Scott Linehan, the Dallas Cowboys deployed 11-personnel (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB) 66% of the time, per Sharp Football Stats. That personnel rate was right at the league average of 65%. The Cowboys success rate in 2018 when running 11-personnel was just under the league average at 45%. It was arguably the Dallas Cowboys most effective personnel grouping when they threw the ball as Dak Prescott had a passer rating of 100.6, but he only averaged 7.2 yards per attempt last season in this formation. They were successful on only 45% of their pass attempts, which put them in the bottom half of the league when throwing out of 11-personnel. Though they averaged 5.2 yards per carry, when the Dallas Cowboys ran the ball out of 11-personnel, they ranked 18th in the NFL in success rate at 49%.

In 2019, the Dallas Cowboys are playing out 11-personnel 77% of the time. That's more than a 10% bump in 11-personnel through the first two games of the season. The Dallas Cowboys have a success rate in 11-personnel of 60%, which is second in the NFL only to the New England Patriots. Currently, the league average success rate out of 11-personnel is only 47%.

When Dak Prescott throws the ball out of 11-personnel, he has a passer rating of 145 (league average is 97), 11.4 yards per attempt (league average is 7.4) and 8.3 air yards per attempt (league average is 7.4). The Dallas Cowboys when passing out of 11-personnel have a success rate of 65%. That's a huge bump from their success rate in 2018 of 45% and much higher than the league average in 2019 of 46%. No team in the NFL has a higher success rate when throwing out of this formation than the Dallas Cowboys.

Let me say that again. No team in the NFL has a higher success rate when throwing out of 11-personnel than Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. Not the Kansas City Chiefs, not the Patriots, not the Los Angeles Rams. Nobody.

When the Dallas Cowboys run the ball out of 11-personnel, they gain the necessary yardage on the down at a rate of 56%. In running success rate, the Dallas Cowboys rank 11th in the NFL, just behind the Los Angeles Rams and the Los Angeles Chargers.

Though the offense has a higher success rate when running 12-personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends, and 2 wide receivers), they only use this formation 15% of the time. Dak Prescott's a perfect 8 for 8 when throwing out of 12-personnel with a perfect passer rating. While they've been good throwing out of this formation (100% success rate), it hasn't been nearly as successful for the running game (36%). Much of that is due to the tight formation that comes with running out of a two-tight end set and the extra defender it brings into the box.

It's obvious that the Dallas Cowboys are having a ton of success when deploying 11-personnel, but why? What can we take away from this?

Kellen Moore Effect

Kellen Moore's playcalling has been a breath of fresh air in 2019. Though we're only two games into the season, clearly he knows what he's doing. Sure, the Dallas Cowboys haven't faced the toughest NFL defenses yet in 2019, but they've put 35 and 31 points on the board against division rivals in double-digit victories to start the season. That's not an easy thing to accomplish.

His use of pre-snap motion and varying route concepts has helped the Dallas Cowboys find openings in the defense for their pass catchers. Moore has employed rub routes and picks into the offense as well as more RPO (run-pass options) and read-options that it seemed Scott Linehan was willing to do.

Dak Prescott's Progression

It's really easy to look at what Dak Prescott and the offense have done in 2019 and lay all of the credit at the feet of Kellen Moore the offensive coordinator, but that would short the most important player on the offense; Dak Prescott.


The mental and physical development that Dak Prescott has undertaken over the last nine months has really shown in these first two games. He's shown excellent command of the offense and has been a tactician before the snap. Several times his checks have led to seemingly simple completions because of what he's been able to accomplish before the snap. Because of that, he's been a much more decisive player after the snap, getting the ball out quickly as soon as he makes his reads.

Another thing that's stood out a lot is the way he's used his eyes and body to manipulate the defense or to keep the defense from sitting on throws. Before pretty much every throw from Dak this season, he's checked the coverage on his primary option, looked away, and then came back to the target and delivered the ball on time.

Prescott's always been a sharp player, but he's stepped up his understanding and application of the mental side of the game.

On the physical side, Prescott's showing a lot of development there as well. He's throwing from a better base and maintaining better balance in the pocket and on the move. It appears that he's throwing with more power, which comes from having better lower body mechanics.

Though it's only two games, it's apparent that Prescott's taken a huge step forward and in ways that will translate throughout the rest of the season and his career.

Spreading the Ball Around

Dak Prescott's always been a player that loved to spread the ball around and it has continued in 2019. Through two games, Prescott's completed passes to nine different players. In week one against the New York Giants, he completed passes to seven players and in week two against the Washington Redskins, he completed passes to eight different players. Five different players have a touchdown reception through two weeks.

In this offense, everyone is going to get an opportunity and Dak Prescott is going to flourish with the plethora of weapons.

One thing that has helped has been the chemistry that has developed between Dak Prescott and Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper, and Randall Cobb. Jason Witten returning gave Dak another reliable weapon in the passing game.

Opposing teams can't focus their attention on one player throughout a game, because the Dallas Cowboys have too many weapons that can hurt you in the passing game. Even with Michael Gallup out for the next 2-4 weeks, the Dallas Cowboys will look to get Devin Smith, who had a really nice day last Sunday, involved in the passing game in his absence.

Use of Play Action

In 2018, the Dallas Cowboys used play-action on only 24.9 percent of his dropbacks In 2019, the Cowboys are using play-action on 43.1% of his dropbacks. The threat of handing off to any running back, but especially to Ezekiel Elliott, is a powerful weapon in a play-callers' arsenal and Scott Linehan inexplicably didn't use it near as much as he should have.

Under Linehan in 2018, Dak Prescott ranked only 10th in play-action attempts among players with at least 110 play-action attempts per Pro Football Focus. Through two games in 2019, Dak Prescott ranks second in pecent of dropbacks that are play-action and fifth in total play-action dropbacks.

Kellen Moore understands what a weapon play-action is for an offense because it forces defenses to account for their responsibilities in the running game. When defenses don't have to be concerned with the threat of a handoff, then they can key in on their passing game responsibilities, making it more difficult for a quarterback to do his job. When a linebacker or safety has to account for the running game on a given play, it causes hesitation in that player's reaction to the play. Along the defensive line, when they have to account for the running game, they cannot fully commit to their rush right away.

Dak Prescott's always been a really good play-action quarterback, so it's nice to see Kellen Moore utilizing that ability even more than has been in the past. You could argue that the Cowboys could employ some kind of play fake on every play and they'd be able to find success with it.

✭ ✭ ✭ ✭ ✭

The Dallas Cowboys are off to a tremendous start on the offensive side of the football and that's a trend that should continue throughout the 2019 season. Sure, the Cowboys will face much tougher defenses in the second half of the year, but by that point, this will be a team that is firing on all cylinders as long as they're able to maintain a reasonable level of health.

The combination of Dak Prescott's ability and Kellen Moore's offensive philosophy has been a match made in efficiency heaven. With these two working at such a high level, the Dallas Cowboys have an offense that can lead them to the football Promised Land and that elusive sixth Lombardi Trophy.


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Cowboys Safety Depth Should be Able to Hold Serve With Xavier Woods Injury

Matthew Lenix

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Cowboys Safety Depth Should be Able to Hold Serve With Xavier Woods Injury

The Dallas Cowboys picked up their second consecutive win of the 2019 season this past Sunday against the Washington Redskins. However, it came with a few bumps and bruises once all the smoke cleared. Wide Receiver Michael Gallup is out 2-4 weeks after suffering a torn meniscus, Antwaun Woods is day-to-day with an MCL sprain, and Tyrone Crawford has a hip issue. The biggest blow came when Safety Xavier Woods went down with a high ankle sprain which was supposed to keep him out 4-6 weeks, but according to DallasCowboys.com's Bryan Broaddus, he might only miss one game. Nonetheless, definitely not the news you want to hear after a big division win on the road, but the Cowboys should have enough depth at safety to survive until the return of Woods.

Fortunately, the Cowboys have a bit of position flex when it comes to safety. Jeff Heath, who's the starter at strong safety played some free safety last year during the absence of Woods in the first two games. He was decent with 7 tackles and a pass defended during that small stretch. Heath is much maligned by Cowboys fans but it is encouraging to know he can switch sides if need be.

This allowed Safety Kavon Frazier to make his only two NFL starts at the strong safety position. In those two games, he had 8 tackles, a sack and a pass defended. Frazier is a very valuable player on special teams and has provided nice depth at safety for the Cowboys for several years now.


Rookie Safety Donovan Wilson was a breakout star during the preseason with 3 interceptions in 3 consecutive games. Unfortunately, he suffered an ankle injury just before the start of the season and has been inactive for the first two games. He's been a full practice participant lately and will be available on Sunday. Wilson is looked at as the possible starter of the future at strong safety.

Lastly, there's Safety Darian Thompson, a former third-round pick out of Boise State in 2016. In 2017, he started all 16 games for the New York Giants and was very productive with 75 tackles, 6 passes defended and an interception. In September of 2018, he was waived by the Giants and was signed to the Arizona Cardinals practice squad a month later. His time in Arizona would be short-lived, though, when he was signed to the Cowboys practice squad a week later. He was released in November but resigned three days later and appeared in 10 games last season as a special teams contributor. Thompson is slated to start opposite Jeff Heath this Sunday against the Miami Dolphins.

The names may not jump out at you but the Cowboys have some pretty solid depth at safety. Will it be enough to hold down the fort until Xavier Woods returns? I believe so but we'll see once the ball kicks off in Arlington on Sunday.

 


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