Cowboys -9. O/U 54 points.
2020 is quickly turning into the season from hell for the Dallas Cowboys.
Despite boasting one of the league’s most prolific passing offenses, the Cowboys find themselves at 1-3. Why? Well, their defense has been historically bad, their offense has given the ball away exactly when they cannot afford to, and their special teams has cost them points multiple times.
Yeah, it’s a disaster.
The good news (sort of) for the Cowboys is that their division is just as incompetent as they are. Dallas can pick up a key divisional win this week against the winless Giants, which would go a long way towards earning them a home playoff game in January.
New York Giants
For as bad as things have been for the Cowboys, they may actually be worse for the Giants.
Jason Garrett’s offense is by far the worst in the league, ranking 31st in EPA per play, last in DVOA and last in points per game. They’ve scored just three total touchdowns this season and lost their best offensive weapon in Saquon Barkley for the year.
Defensively the Giants have been a bit better, though, ranking 11th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA per play. You know they are looking at the wounded Cowboys as a chance to get right this week, and they are coming off a hard fought loss to the playoff caliber Rams.
Trends (via Covers)
- The Giants are 14-3 against the spread their last 17 away games.
- The Cowboys are 15-3 against the spread their last 18 games against the NFC East.
- The Cowboys are 1-4 against the spread their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- The under is 4-0 in the Giants’ last 4 games as a road underdog.
The Cowboys are a better team than the Giants, and should have the offensive firepower to dominate this one for four quarters. But then again, they haven’t proven they can beat (let alone dominate) much of anything this season.
9 points is a lot, so I’ll take the Giants +9.
By the way, you’d be undefeated betting against the Cowboys if you did it all season so far. So why not keep the trend going?