Although we’re just six weeks into the 2025 season, the MVP talk is already heating up. With a dozen weeks left to play, the early favorites are quarterbacks.
That’s hardly a surprise.
The last time a non-QB pulled down the MVP award was all the way back in 2012 when Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson won a two-man race against Denver quarterback Peyton Manning.
In fact, in the 25 seasons played in the 21st Century, four running backs, Peterson, LaDanian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, and Marshall Faulk, have won the award. The other 21 all went to quarterbacks.
In the last seven seasons, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson have won it twice.
Last year, Josh Allen edged Jackson out for his first MVP honor.
So, who are the top two early favorites?
Dallas’ quarterback, Dak Prescott, and Tampa Bay quarterback, Baker Mayfield.
As far as which has the early lead, the answer might surprise you. If you’re a Cowboys fan, it will also likely anger you.
As things stand now, Mayfield would win the MVP in 2025.
Here’s why.
More With Less
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 5-1 and currently have the best record in the NFC. They are tied with the Colts for the top record in the entire league.
In six games, Mayfield is 129-of-195 for 1,539 yards, 12 touchdowns and just one interception.
His lone loss was a 31-25 defeat to the Eagles, who got a punt block return for an early score. Philadelphia still barely held on to win that game.
The Cowboys are at 2-3-1, mainly because they have no defense.
Prescott is 164-of-229 for 1,617 yards, 13 touchdowns, and three interceptions.
On the whole, statistically, they are pretty even. However, a quarterback with a winning record will always be favored over a quarterback with a losing one.
If the Cowboys can’t get back over .500 this year, no matter what kind of numbers Prescott puts up, he will not win the MVP award.
Another point in Mayfield’s favor is that he has been doing this without his top two receivers and his top running back.
Prescott has also been missing his top receiver. But he’s had George Pickens to throw to at least.
But there is one more reason why Mayfield is currently favored.
It was on full display in Sunday’s games.
Getting It Done
Tied at 27 with eight minutes remaining, Prescott took over at his own 46. Any kind of a drive and he’s in Brandon Aubrey’s range.
In fact, he may not have even needed to get a first down to put his kicker on the field for the go-ahead kick.
Instead, we got another “three-and-out when-we-need-a-drive” that featured three Prescott passes for a total of minus-8 yards.
The Cowboys punted the ball away with six minutes left and never saw the ball again in a 30-27 loss.
A few hours later out in San Francisco, Mayfield was facing a third-and-14, holding onto a slim 20-19 lead late in the third quarter.
Mayfield dropped back to pass, somehow escaped a certain sack, and then took off downfield.
He eluded three more would-be tacklers. By the time the 49ers got him on the turf, he’d gained 15 yards and a first down.
Tampa Bay scored two plays later to make it 27-19 before going on to win 30-19.
The Ultimate Decider
When it mattered most, Mayfield willed his team downfield and won. Prescott went backwards and lost.
That is the intangible that will determine who will be this year’s MVP.
Whether it is Mayfield, Prescott, or someone else.
Who among the candidates was the one who willed his team to victory on a consistent basis? Right now, Prescott doesn’t have that more than Mayfield.
If Dallas is to turn around this season, he’ll need to find it, no matter what his defense does.
But for now, Mayfield is the clear choice to be the NFL’s MVP in 2025.
Agree. 2 wins vs 5 wins seals it. Commented before on the checkdown “meltdown” debacle, 3 and out, with the game there for the winning. PLUS, in the same game, he had a very short field TD thanks to an INT by Wilson. So basically, he put up 20 points on his own in a horrible loss to the Panthers.