The start of the NFL season might be weeks away, but things are shaping up well for the Dallas Cowboys. Training camp has been going well, and there’s plenty of hope among the fanbase that the team can take a positive step forward in Year 2 under Brian Schottenheimer.
But does that confidence extend to the league more widely?
A closer look at prediction markets, where users trade yes-or-no event contracts on sports and express their view on the likelihood of an outcome, indicates what NFL fans expect from America’s Team in 2026.
As each contract pays $1 if successful and nothing if not, the price also serves as the implied probability of a particular outcome.
These platforms are continuing to grow in popularity, with offers such as a Polymarket invite code helping new traders get started. But here is how the Cowboys are expected to fare as things stand.
Cowboys expected to challenge Eagles in NFC East
After going 7-9-1 and finishing second in the NFC East, the target set by Jerry Jones will likely be a simple one: knock the Eagles off their perch.
If CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Dak Prescott are firing on all cylinders on offense, then this might be Dallas’ best chance to do so in years, especially with the Eagles losing key pieces of their roster in the offseason like A.J. Brown and Reed Blankenship.
As things stand, the Cowboys have been given a 31% chance of winning the division, while Philly’s probability in the same market is 38%.
Although the Eagles might hold a slight edge currently, those percentages could swing in the coming weeks depending on multiple factors, such as injuries, trades, preseason performances, and early-season results in September.
Finishing atop the East will be the goal, but the bare minimum will be reaching the postseason.
Currently, Dallas’ probability of playing January football is 50%, which is the same as teams like Chicago, Green Bay, and San Francisco, franchises that the Cowboys could well be competing against for a wild card spot.
Cowboys believed to be big dark horses for NFC Championship
Although many believe the Cowboys could challenge in the East, their hopes of dominating in the NFC wild card, divisional, and championship games are seen as slim by prediction market users.
Currently, Schottenheimer’s team only has a 6% probability of becoming NFC champions across various platforms, a figure that puts them behind other top franchises.
LA, Seattle, Detroit, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Green Bay are all believed to have a stronger chance, with Seattle and Los Angeles widely expected to run the 2025 NFC Championship Game back for a place in Super Bowl LXI.
Right now, the Cowboys share similar odds of reaching the top of the NFC with the Chicago Bears, who Hall of Fame linebacker Brian Urlacher expects to improve this season.
Should Dallas pick up big wins against Super Bowl contenders like the Ravens and Eagles in the regular season, then traders might start to look at them more favorably, particularly in the market looking at the teams most likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Dallas currently has a 5% chance, a percentage matching Philadelphia’s, but is still well behind the current favorites, the Los Angeles Rams, with Sean McVay’s team believed to have a 15% probability of standing tall in February 2027.
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