Inside The Numbers: Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

The Dallas Cowboys regular season schedule kicks off on Sunday Sept 9th as they travel to North Carolina to face the Carolina Panthers in week one of the NFL season. We made it y’all. Real football starts.

The Dallas Cowboys and the Carolina Panthers are two teams that have a lot in common.

Both the Carolina Panthers and the Dallas Cowboys have quarterbacks (Cam Newton and Dak Prescott) who are as dangerous with their legs as they are with their arms.

Both, though some talent there, have question marks at wide receiver.

Both CAR and DAL will use the running game to get their offense going.

Between Luke Kuechly and Sean Lee, each team has a linebacker considered one of the best in the NFL.

And both teams have had to deal with the absence of their respective player (Kuechly and Lee) due to injury over the years.

As the Dallas Cowboys look to make a run toward the playoffs and hopefully a sixth Lombardi Trophy, the Carolina Panthers are the first hurdle along the way.

As we get ready for the first real football game of the season, let’s dig into the numbers that will make this a great week one matchup.

History

The last time these two played was in the 2015 season – the infamous game in which Tony Romo made his return from a broken collarbone he suffered earlier in the season. He probably shouldn’t have come back as he was hit a lot and threw three interceptions before being knocked out of the game with another injury to the same shoulder.

Prior to that, the Dallas Cowboys had won the nine previous regular season meetings and own a 9-4 record over the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have had the Cowboys’ number in the playoffs as America’s Team has gone 0-2 over the history of the matchup.

Dallas Cowboys DT David Irving, Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton (Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)

0

The number of seasons in which Carolina Panthers Pro Bowl Quarterback Cam Newton has been sacked less than 30 times in a season. 0. For his career he’s been sacked at an average of 36.6 times at a rate of 16 games per season. That would be more than two sacks per game.

With the Carolina Panthers down a lot of offensive line assets to start the season, it would appear that Cam is ripe for the picking.

1

Only one quarterback since Dante Culpepper did it in 2002 has rushed for double-digit touchdowns in the last 16 seasons; Cam Newton. He’s also the only player to do it twice since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

Along with Cam, Michael Vick and Steve McNair are the only quarterbacks to have multiple seasons of eight rushing touchdowns. Newton has three of those seasons. Vick and McNair only did it twice.

Keeping Cam Newton contained is a huge key to victory on Sunday.

2

The amount of times Cam Newton has finished a season with a completion percentage above 60%.

He hasn’t accomplished that feat since 2013 — a streak of four seasons with a completion percentage under 60%. No, completion percentage isn’t everything, especially for a player who’s just as dangerous with his legs as he is with his arm.

A lot of times when you look at a quarterback with a low completion percentage you might think it’s because he’s taking deep shots down the field. With Newton that isn’t the case. According to Pro Football Focus, who tracks number of “deep passing attempts,” Newton ranked 19th in deep attempts in the NFL with 57. He only threw deeper than 20 yards on 11.6% of his passes, which was 20th in the NFL. Newton’s 35.1% completion percentage on these throws was 22nd in the NFL and he had a quarterback rating of 60.6 on such throws.

What’s to be gleaned from this?

Newton isn’t a very accurate passer and he lives in the short to intermediate parts of the field. Take that away and it’s going to be a long day for Cam.

For a bit of reference: Dak Prescott has had completion percentages over 60% in both of his first two seasons. Newton has played seven years in the NFL.

Prescott attempted 43 deep attempts, which was 25th in the NFL, but completed 44.6% of those passes for over 500 yards and a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Dak had a quarterback rating of 106.2 on throws over 20 yards, which was the 5th best number among quarterbacks with at least 40 attempts.

4.5

The Dallas Cowboys averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in 2017, which was third in the NFL and just a touch better than the Carolina Panthers 4.3. The big difference being that the Cowboys rely far less on their quarterback to make things happen with his legs than the Panthers do.

Cam Newton led the Panthers in rushing in 2017 with 754 yards and six touchdowns, while averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart — the only other Panthers runners to have more than 100 carries on the season — averaged 3.7 and 3.4 yards per attempt.

With the Carolina Panthers being decimated on the offensive line, it could be tough to get their running game going week one. Even against a depleted Dallas Cowboys interior defensive line.

9

No, this isn’t a reference to former Dallas Cowboys Quarterback Tony Romo, this is where Dak Prescott ranked in total pressures in 2017.

We know that things broke down for Dak in the second half of the season when Tyron Smith was out and struggling with injuries. Here’s hoping that Dallas keeps the pressure off so Dak can work his magic.

11

Carolina finished the 2017 season 11th in the NFL in points allowed. That’s a pretty tremendous feat considering they played the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons twice each, the New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, and Philadelphia Eagles (before Carson Wentz was injured) and the Detroit Lions.

In those nine games, the Panthers allowed 26 points per game. They went 5-4. In the other seven games they only allowed an average of 13.28 points per game and went 6-1. That against the likes of the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears (in a loss), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (twice), Miami Dolphins, and the New York Jets. The New York Jets, who weren’t very good last season, were able to score 27 points on the Panthers in week 12 last season.

They were a Jekyll and Hyde defense, and the better offensive teams took advantage. Make no mistake, the Dallas Cowboys are one of the better offenses in the NFL.

11.3

Luke Kuechly finished second in the NFL in run-stop percentage, according to Pro Football Focus. Only Reuben Foster of the San Francisco 49ers had a better run-stop percentage (11.4%) of players who played at least 50% of their team’s run snaps. Kuechly played 53 more snaps than Foster.

Pro Football Focus defines a “run stop” as, “tackles that constitute a ‘loss’ for the offense.” Sean Lee had a run stop percentage of 13%, but wasn’t on the field for 50% of the Dallas Cowboys’ defensive run plays.

12

Where the Carolina Panthers ranked in points per game in 2017, just a couple of spots ahead of the Dallas Cowboys at 14. In 2016, the Panthers finished 15th. That’s a huge drop off from leading the league in 2015 when they were the only team to score more than 500 points.

The Dallas Cowboys were top-5 in the NFL in 2016, but there was also a big difference in QB, receiver, and OL play in 2017.

16

The two teams that will face off this Sunday tied for 16th in the NFL in turnover differential with -1. The Cowboys hope that by protecting Dak Prescott better that he’ll return to protecting the ball with the same efficiency we saw in 2016.

Cam Newton has never had a season in which he threw less than 10 interceptions, averaging 13.4 interceptions per season.

The Dallas Cowboys, with the addition of Kris Richard as defensive backs coach and passing game coordinator, hope Richard will be the key to seeing the Cowboys become a ball-hawking turnover machine.

18

The Dallas Cowboys’ 18 rushing touchdowns were second in the NFL only to the New Orleans Saints’ high-powered rushing attack. Remember that Ezekiel Elliott missed six games.

22

Defensive Ends Julius Peppers and Mario Addison each had 11 sacks last season. Their average age going into 2018 is 33.5 years of age.

These two prove that age is just a number.

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth, File)

25

The amount of touchdowns Dallas Cowboys Running Back Ezekiel Elliott has scored through his first two seasons in the NFL. That’s 25 touchdowns in 25 games.

Only Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson, Clinton Portis, Curtis Martin, Edgerrin James, Billy Sims, and David Johnson played at least 25 games in their first two seasons and averaged at least a touchdown a game.

28

Dak Prescott and Cam Newton had the same amount of combined passing and rushing touchdowns last season – 28. They both had 22 passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns. Both of these guys will use their legs to make things happen, though Carolina likes to call designed runs more for Newton than Dallas does for Prescott.

50

The Carolina Panthers’ 50 sacks as a team ranked them third in the NFL last season, while the Dallas Cowboys finished 15th in total sacks with 38.

Dallas will have a good shot to improve on that number this year with Randy Gregory back and the depth they have in Taco Charlton and Dorance Armstrong. Hopefully David Irving will be back and unleashing his pass rush prowess week five. But in regular season terms, week five is a long way off.

88.1

Last season the Carolina Panthers finished third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 88.1. They only allowed seven rushing touchdowns in 2017, tied with the Dallas Cowboys for third in the NFL. They only played six games against teams in the top-10 in rushing in 2017.

135.6

The Dallas Cowboys, on the other hand, averaged 135.6 rushing yards per game in 2017, which was second in the NFL. That’s particularly amazing given that Ezekiel Elliott missed six games in the middle of the season and rushed for only eight yards in the week two contest against the Denver Broncos.

Probably the biggest key to the Dallas Cowboys success is going to be how well they run the ball against the Carolina Panthers front seven.

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So, what do you think? Given the numbers mentioned above, who has the edge when these teams kick off on Sunday. Stay tuned for our predictions here at Inside The Star, later this week.