Could Mike McCarthy get fired after another early playoff exit?

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Mike McCarthy’s head coach job is on the line as the playoffs get under way.

One would think that three-straight 12-5 seasons – with three consecutive playoff appearances – would equal job security.

But this is Dallas and Jerry Jones is still the Owner/GM of the franchise. And there is that nagging little issue of not advancing past the Divisional round since 1995.

So, yes, Mike McCarthy’s seat is a little warm. So are a lot of other seat’s including the owner and the starting quarterback and rightfully so.

McCarthy Now Third-best Cowboys’ Head Coach

Becoming the first Cowboys’ coach to win 12 games three years in a row has put McCarthy into the top tier of the team’s head coaches.

Tom Landry won 12 games two years in a row on two different occasions – 1977-78 and 1980-81. He also had 10 wins or more from 1968-73 and again from 1975-1981.

Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Tom Landry prepares to lead his team against the Denver Broncos in Week 2 of the 1980 NFL season.

Jimmy Johnson won 11 in 1991, 13 in 1992, and 12 in 1993 before Jones stupidly fired him.

Barry Switzer road Johnson’s coattails to win 12 games in 1994-95 and 10 more in 1996. All of Switzer’s NFL accomplishments really belong to Johnson.

But since the 1995 season the Cowboys have never returned to the NFC Championship game, much less a Super Bowl.

They are 254-207 (.563) in the regular season since beating Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XXX. They are a dismal 5-12 (.294) in the playoffs since that win.

And there’s where the heat on McCarthy’s seat is coming from.

He is 1-2 in the playoffs coming into Sunday’s game against the Packers and 0-1 in the divisional round.

McCarthy’s Impressive Regular Season Numbers

After a 6-10 season in his first year in Dallas in 2020 – with Dak Prescott missing 11 games to an ankle injury – McCarthy is now 42-25 (.737) overall.

A far cry better than Jason “Clapping Hands” Garrett’s tenure. Garrett went 85-67 (.559) in nine-plus seasons as the Cowboys’ leader.

He won three division titles and was just 2-3 (.400) in the playoffs. Both of his wins were in the wild card round. Garrett’s teams consistently underperformed.

His tenure followed a pattern set by his predecessors – Bill Parcells and Wade Phillips. Parcells (34-30) never won an NFC East title and lost both wild card games in his four years in Dallas.

Phillips won two division titles in three-plus seasons in Dallas with a 34-22 (.607) mark. But he was also 1-2 in the playoffs with just a Wild Card game win.

McCarthy Needs To Make The NFC Title Game

And that’s the bane of the Cowboys’ existence since 1995. They’ve had solid rosters with promising seasons that died no later than the Divisional round of the playoffs.

McCarthy is now 0-1 in that round after last year’s disappointing loss to the 49ers in San Francisco.

Another early exit, either this Sunday against McCarthy’s former team, or the following week against the Rams, Lions, Eagles, or Tampa Bay?

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) talks with Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy, right, during the first half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Monday, Oct. 16, 2023, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Yeah, you could make the case that McCarthy isn’t the man to get the Cowboys past the finish line. Which is why Jones originally hedged his bets when asked about McCarthy.

Bum Phillips found himself in a situation when his team couldn’t quite get far in the playoffs.

“Last year we knocked on the door. This year we beat on it. Next year we’re going to kick the son of a bitch in!” he promised after another disappointing loss.

It may be “next year” this post season for McCarthy. Anything less than the NFC Championship game and he may be updating his resume.

Is it fair? No.

But nearly three decades of wandering in the desert has left the Cowboys’ front office, and their fans, very impatient.

We’re tired of waiting. It’s time to go kick that door in or go find someone who can.

Who Would Be The Next Man Up?

Here’s where a lot of intrigue is building in the “fire McCarthy if they have another early exit” camp.

Dallas wouldn’t have to go outside the building to get their next head coach and defensive coordinator.

Dan Quinn would be the logical choice to move up to the head coach slot. He also has led a team to the Super Bowl.

Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn of the Dallas Cowboys looks on before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on September 09, 2021. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Yes, said team suffered an epic collapse against the Patriots when they got pass happy instead of running the ball.

Still, Quinn has won an NFC Championship and made it to a Super Bowl.

And Al Harris would be a natural choice to move up from his assistant coach position to the team’s defensive coordinator.

Then, unless Brian Schottenheimer is more than McCarthy’s yes man, it’s just a matter of finding a young coach with some fresh approaches to offense to become the offensive coordinator and we’re off.

Could McCarthy Survive Even With An Early Exit?

Yes.

He has posted a 36-15 record over the last three years. So he’s clearly doing something right.

So, assuming another early loss, what would need to happen next year? First, Dallas needs to shore up the lines.

The offensive line is banged up. It may be time for Tyron Smith to hang it up as he can’t stay healthy.

The interior of the defensive line – as well as middle linebacker – needs help too.

Tony Pollard is not an RB1, nor is Rico Dowdle. Getting a power back – hello Derrick Henry – without breaking the bank might be a good idea.

But if McCarthy does survive an early exit to coach next year, his seat will be red-hot starting the day after said loss.

A fifth year of not making the NFC title game would likely be the end of McCarthy’s run in Dallas.